Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
713 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Multiple disturbances are expected to bring several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms to the region through the weekend and
into early Monday. High pressure and dry conditions are then
expected for Tuesday. More disturbances in northwesterly flow
aloft will cross the region later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Quick update to expire the eastern segment of the heat advisory.
No other changes as of now.

Previous discussion >
Apparent temperatures were expected to remain
at or over 100 in the southwest, which had me extend the current
advisory into the overnight hours as the eastern portion of it
drops off later today.

Upstream thunderstorm complex west of Indianapolis and a shower
complex underneath the MCV northeast of Indy will work into the
CWA later this afternoon into this evening. Expect convection to
be possible almost anywhere this evening but with a higher
propensity southwest of a Richmond/Lebanon/Georgetown line.

Overnight should see convection from this evening waning, but
another upper level disturbance will ride southeast in the mean
flow and cross northern Ohio. Storms from this will primarily
affect the I-70 corridor and northward, with isolated activity
possible elsewhere late overnight.

Confidence in the occurrence and/or placement of these storm
clusters is low. Forecast will be dynamically updated as storms
fire and a better timing and areal extent of them are able to be
extrapolated in both time and space. With this being said,
forecast is probably too low on pops overnight in the northern
CWA where it was limited to chance category.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday had me bring another tier of counties into the heat
advisory fold as unusually warm dewpoints solidly in the middle
70s combine with temperatures in the low 90s to push apparent
temperatures over the 100 degree mark.

Storms that are present in the morning should be focused north
of and along the I-70 corridor, but a few models are indicating
some isolated activity popping south of it just before daybreak.

The outflow boundary that lays out along the I-70 corridor later
in the day is expected to be a focus for a second round of
development, given an added boost by a continued feed of moist
and unstable air on southerly winds. Storms will fire along a
w-e oriented line and then move south in the evening.

Any storm in the next few days will have a higher potential for
damaging winds and especially very heavy rainfall. The tornado
and large hail threat appear to be negligible at this moment in
time.

Storms will weaken and diminish as they move south to the Ohio
River on Saturday night. Dewpoints will remain in the middle 70s
until the airmass changes beyond the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak trof/boundary is forecast to push through the region on
Sunday. This feature may be entering our far eastern/southeast
zones by peak heating which would bring the highest PoPs to these
locations. All in all, just have slight chance/chance of
showers/storms. SPC has a slight risk for severe storms. There could
be an isolated severe during the afternoon due to diurnal heating.

For the period Sunday night into Monday night, mid level trough will
dig southeast across the Great Lakes/eastern Canada. As this occurs,
a cold front will move slowly southeast through our region. With the
lack of strong low level forcing and upper level support, the
chances for showers/storms appears low and should affect our
eastern/southern zones in the afternoon on Monday. Skies should
become at least partly cloudy Monday night as high pressure builds
into the region from the north with a drying and stabilizing air
mass.

High pressure should remain over the region through at least Tuesday
into Tuesday night with dry weather expected.

As the high moves east on Wednesday, return flow and increasing
moisture may lead to a small chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Models indicate that the next frontal boundary to affect our region
will be during the Thursday/Friday time frame. Differences are seen
in the timing, so a broad brush forecast has been used with a chance
of showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures will cool back down to more July normals Tuesday
through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
While VFR conditions will prevail through the evening, an area
of thunderstorms will move through the Cincinnati area over the
next hour or two, possibly bringing MVFR/IFR TSRA conditions to
the CVG/LUK TAF sites. Some MVFR visibilities are possible with
an area of rain moving into CMH/LCK as well.

Later in the overnight period, a larger complex of thunderstorms
is expected to move into the region, affecting the northern four
TAF sites near daybreak. These storms have now been specifically
included in the TAFs, and future forecasts may need to forecast
further reduced conditions (lower ceilings / higher winds) with
the storms. It is most likely that these storms will remain
north of Cincinnati. Outside of the storms, some MVFR
visibilities are also possible at the Columbus airports.

After a break in the activity through late morning and early
afternoon, additional thunderstorm development will be possible
going into the afternoon and evening. Southwest winds will
increase to around 10-15 knots.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible again from Saturday
night through Sunday, and then again on Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ070-071.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ077-078.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ089>096.
IN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for INZ066.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Saturday for INZ073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks/Hatzos
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Franks/Hatzos

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
716 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-072>074-222330-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-
Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Clinton-Ross-
Hocking-
716 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Heat index values in the middle to upper 90s will occur on Saturday.

Occasional thunderstorms can be expected through the weekend. Some
storms may become severe with the main severe threats being heavy
rainfall and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed on Saturday.

KYZ097>100-OHZ079>082-088-222330-
Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
716 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Kentucky, Northern
Kentucky and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Heat index values in the upper 90s will occur on Saturday.

Occasional thunderstorms can be expected through the weekend. Some
storms may become severe with the main severe threats being heavy
rainfall and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed on Saturday.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>096-OHZ077-078-222330-
Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-
Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Hamilton-Clermont-
716 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northern
Kentucky and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

A few strong storms are possible this evening, with gusty winds and
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Occasional thunderstorms can be expected through the weekend. Some
storms may become severe with the main severe threats being heavy
rainfall and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed on Saturday.

INZ066-OHZ070-071-222330-
Franklin IN-Butler-Warren-
716 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana and
Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few strong storms are possible this evening, with gusty winds and
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Occasional thunderstorms can be expected through the weekend. Some
storms may become severe with the main severe threats being heavy
rainfall and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed on Saturday.

HATZOS

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
707 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2017

INZ074-KYZ091-OHZ077-212330-
Dearborn IN-Boone KY-Hamilton OH-
707 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL DEARBORN...NORTHERN
BOONE AND SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 706 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over Hidden
Valley, moving southeast at 20 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Florence, Cheviot, Lawrenceburg, Greendale, Oakbrook, Bright,
Burlington, Hidden Valley, Cleves, Shawnee, Bridgetown, Delhi
Township, Miami Heights, Delhi Hills, Monfort Heights, Guilford,
Grandview and Addyston.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If this storm becomes
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3915 8495 3924 8487 3917 8459 3898 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 302DEG 18KT 3916 8483

JDR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
735 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2017

KYZ093-096-097-OHZ078-220000-
Pendleton KY-Campbell KY-Bracken KY-Clermont OH-
735 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2017

...A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
BRACKEN...SOUTHERN CAMPBELL...NORTHEASTERN PENDLETON AND SOUTHERN
CLERMONT COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

At 735 PM EDT, radar indicated a thunderstorm over Alexandria, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Alexandria, Claryville, New Richmond, Felicity, Mentor, Moscow,
Neville, California, Mount Auburn, New Palestine, Gubser Mill,
Nicholsville, Peach Grove and Point Isabel.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If this storm becomes
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3892 8444 3901 8437 3902 8432 3904 8432
      3892 8403 3891 8404 3865 8415
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 307DEG 16KT 3895 8436

JDR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
740 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2017

KYZ091-OHZ077-220015-
Boone KY-Hamilton OH-
740 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN BOONE AND SOUTHWESTERN
HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

At 739 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Shawnee,
moving southeast at 10 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Cincinnati, Florence, Villa Hills, Oakbrook, Burlington, Union,
Cleves, Shawnee, Delshire, Delhi Township, Delhi Hills, Mack,
Addyston, North Bend, Hebron, Elizabethtown and CVG Airport.

This includes I-75 in Kentucky between mile markers 181 and 182.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If this storm becomes
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3910 8483 3911 8482 3913 8482 3918 8481
      3910 8457 3908 8458 3907 8462 3903 8462
      3894 8468 3906 8484
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 298DEG 10KT 3909 8480

JDR