Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
815 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front dropping south through the Great Lakes will bring
a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region
tonight into the early part of the the work week. Temperatures
will be near normal for the next couple of days, then a gradual
increase in heat and humidity is expected going into the second
half of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Scattered convection has developed in an axis of moisture
convergence along a cold front and moved into west central Ohio.
Near term guidance suggests that this activity will persist
through the evening while only making slight southward progress
as the boundary weakens. Have increased PoPs in the northwest
counties this evening and then allowed it to fizzle overnight.
Looks like there will be river valley fog again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
By Monday morning the upper s/w will be east of the region, but
a sfc trof will be lingering across the ern zones. As the
atmosphere heats up, there should be enough convergence for some
scattered cells to pop. Chance PoPs look sufficient at this
time. Highs will range from around 80 in the nw, to the mid 80s
in the south.

A few storms could linger into the evening hours, but overall
expect Monday night be dry, with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term will be a summertime pattern with warm and humid
conditions for much of the time period.  Tuesday will be the coolest
day with high temperatures expected to be in the low to mid 80s. A
diffuse washed out frontal boundary will be in place at the start of
the long term therefore some patchy fog will be possible Tuesday
morning.

With a weak frontal boundary in the vicinity Tuesday afternoon
cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm along and south of the
Ohio River.  Moisture should be limited however and remain primarily
south of the region.  Due to this limited precipitation chances to a
slight chance.

The heat and humidity will be on the increase for Wednesday with
southwesterly flow.  Temperatures Wednesday through Sunday are
expected to generally be in the middle 80s to low 90s.  Heat index
values across portions of the area will be in the middle 90s to
around 100.  With some uncertainty with clouds and convection will
leave heat index values out of the hazardous weather outlook at this
time, however will continue to monitor as the week progresses.

The area will be in northwest flow aloft for Wednesday through
Saturday.  During this time expect multiple disturbances to work
down into the region in the northwest flow.  Although there will be
off and on chances for precipitation, Friday night looks to be the
best chance for shower and thunderstorm activity.  Additional
thunderstorm chances will be present for Sunday with unstable
airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Convection northwest of the region will likely diminish before
reaching KDAY. Otherwise VFR will prevail through the early part
of the TAF period. A weak boundary will sag to near KDAY to
KCMH. Along and north of this it appears low ceilings will
develop. Enough uncertainty to keep those ceilings out of the
TAFs at this time. Most locations will likely see visibility
restrictions develop late tonight. KLUK will be LIFR in river
valley fog. Otherwise only expect MVFR restrictions.
Visibilities will improve after 12Z. Additional showers and
thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon and affect
KCVG/LUK/KILN.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Haines/Sites
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Sites
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
743 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-171145-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
743 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
926 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 W ANNA                40.39N 84.26W
07/16/2017  M1.25 INCH       SHELBY             OH   PUBLIC

            MEASURED IN A 30-MINUTE SPAN.

&&

KC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
928 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

OHZ034-035-043-170200-
Auglaize OH-Shelby OH-Mercer OH-
928 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL SHELBY...WESTERN
AUGLAIZE AND EAST CENTRAL MERCER COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

At 928 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over St. Marys,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
Nickel size hail...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Wapakoneta, St. Marys, New Bremen, Anna, Botkins, New Knoxville,
Moulton, Kettlersville, Fryburg, St. Johns, State Route 116 at State
Route 197, Bulkhead, Mccartyville and Swanders.

This includes I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 99 and 113.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If this storm becomes
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4046 8447 4065 8446 4057 8406 4036 8417
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 292DEG 12KT 4054 8441

JDR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
932 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

OHZ035-042-043-051-170200-
Auglaize OH-Darke OH-Shelby OH-Miami OH-
932 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SHELBY...NORTHEASTERN DARKE...
SOUTHWESTERN AUGLAIZE AND NORTHEASTERN MIAMI COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM
EDT...

At 932 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over Newport,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
Penny size hail...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Sidney, Piqua, Minster, Newport, Fort Loramie, Hardin, Russia,
Fletcher, Port Jefferson, Lockington, Newbern, Lake Loramie State
Park, Pemberton and Houston.

This includes I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 81 and 96.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If this storm becomes
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4030 8401 4006 8403 4005 8404 4027 8454
      4036 8445 4036 8444 4037 8444 4042 8439
TIME...MOT...LOC 0132Z 301DEG 14KT 4026 8439

JDR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
944 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

OHZ052-170215-
Champaign OH-
944 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN CHAMPAIGN COUNTY UNTIL
1015 PM EDT...

At 944 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over St. Paris,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Penny size hail...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Urbana, St. Paris, Christiansburg, Thackery, Kiser Lake State Park,
Millerstown, Westville, Rosewood, Carysville and Terre Haute.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If this storm becomes
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4002 8367 4004 8402 4015 8403 4020 8402
      4024 8395
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 320DEG 13KT 4014 8396

JDR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
946 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0942 PM     HAIL             4 NNW ST. PARIS         40.18N 83.97W
07/16/2017  E0.75 INCH       CHAMPAIGN          OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KC

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