Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
340 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak disturbances will bring chances for precipitation to the
region off and on through Thursday. A better chance for
precipitation will occur on Friday as a cold front approaches
and moves through the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
An embedded weather disturbance was interacting with an unstable
airmass this afternoon, resulting in some showers and embedded
thunderstorms. As this disturbance moves east this evening, and
as the airmass stabilizes, precipitation should come to an end.
Skies will then clear as a weak surface ridge moves into the
Ohio Valley. Lows will range from the upper 50s to the lower
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Another embedded weather disturbance within a large scale mid
level trough across the Great Lakes will affect northern
sections of the CWFA late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Thus,
will continue with a chance of showers/storms there during this
time frame. Otherwise, a good portion of Tuesday will be dry
along with temperatures in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

A remnant boundary/trough axis will settle across the northern
forecast area later Tuesday night. By then, forcing and
instability will have waned that skies will range from partly
cloudy to mostly clear. Lows will range from the upper 50s to
the lower 60s once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak upper trough will pass north of the region Wednesday and meet
a relatively unreceptive airmass to create showers. Attm, they are
isolated at best and generally expected to be light. High pressure
will then keep the region dry until later Thursday as moisture gets
pulled into the region from the south and wrung out along a front in
the Great Lakes area. Even the chances on this day are marginal at
best but warm frontal processes will necessitate chance pops in the
northeast late in the day. Beyond Thursday the chances for storms
will increase and maximize on Friday and Friday night, lingering
into Saturday as a southern upper low moves northeast and the
surface cold front dives south. The cold front should push any
lingering storms along it south and away from the CWA by Saturday
night and high pressure will build back in with some instability
showers or thunderstorms possible Sunday, much like todays weather.

Temperatures will be near normal Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday and
maximize a few degrees above normal on Thursday. They will then drop
into the 70s for Sunday and Monday. Overnight lows in the 60s for
most nights will be maximized near 70 Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An embedded disturbance will move east across northern Indiana
and northern Ohio this afternoon and this evening. The lift from
this feature will trigger some showers and thunderstorms, most
numerous near the northern terminals of KDAY, KCMH, and KLCK.
Have placed TEMPO MVFR conditions at these three sites. The
threat rapidly decreases south of the Ohio River.

With the loss of day time heating, and with this disturbance
moving away from our region, showers/storms will wane this
evening. Skies will gradually clear overnight.

On Tuesday, another embedded disturbance is forecast to rotate
southeast toward the area. This feature is slower than previous
forecasts, so the terminals are expected to stay dry through
00Z. Scattered diurnal cumulus can be expected.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday night through
Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Hickman

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
323 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-200900-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
323 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
441 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

OHZ051>053-061-062-192115-
Champaign OH-Montgomery OH-Clark OH-Greene OH-Miami OH-
441 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CHAMPAIGN...
NORTHWESTERN CLARK...NORTHWESTERN GREENE...NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY
AND SOUTHEASTERN MIAMI COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 440 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over Tipp City,
moving east at 35 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
One half inch diameter hail...

Locations impacted include...
Dayton, Springfield, Huber Heights, Fairborn, Troy, Vandalia,
Englewood, Tipp City, New Carlisle, West Milton, Wright-Patterson
Afb, Enon, Brown, Riverside, Clayton, Union, Christiansburg, North
Hampton, Donnelsville and Casstown.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 28 and 50.
 I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 59 and 75.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4010 8388 3995 8383 3979 8398 3987 8439
      4005 8426
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 268DEG 32KT 3995 8423

Hatzos