Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
352 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will progress northward through the area tonight
allowing for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms
may contain heavy rain and gusty winds. Showers and thunderstorms
will persist through Sunday afternoon when a cold front sweeps
through the region. High pressure will build in for the beginning
of the week offering drier and cooler conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Mid/upper level low over the central plains to lift northeast
into the western Great Lakes tonight. Upstream ridge axis to
shift east with the flow backing in response to this system
with an increase in moisture. Convective s/w aided the
development of elevated convection in west central Ohio. This
activity will continue pivoting northeast out of ILN/s FA early
this evening.

East-west oriented frontal boundary has stalled across northern
KY. This front will begin to lift north this evening and push
across ILN/s fa into southern Lower Mi overnight. Moderate
instability has led to the develop of scattered storms over
ILN/s southwest counties invof the warm front. 30-40 kt 0-6km
bulk shear will support some organization to storms these
storms. Downdraft cape 800-900 j/kg suggests the potential for
a few of the stronger updrafts to produce strong to damaging
wind gusts. As this activity moves north away from the genesis
region of more favorable instability it is expected to weaken
some.

Model solns converging showing additional storms developing on
pre-frontal sfc trof overnight. 925 mb favorable axis of
convergence develops into eastern Indiana/western Ohio by 06Z.
Moisture increases with an axis of pw/s values of 1.6 to 1.7
inches. These values are 175 percent of normal. Therefore
potential for heavy rain and flooding will exist. Have
categorical pops developing overnight with this feature. In warm
sector and high moist environment have mild lows in the mid and
upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Expect ongoing convection associated with pre-frontal sfc trof
Sunday morning. With pw/s of 1.6 to 1.7 inches, the potential
for heavy rain and flooding will exist. The cold front will be
slow to push through the region Sunday, which will provide a
continued threat for storms. Instability is expected to be
marginal. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid and upper 70s.

A chance of pcpn will linger in the eastern counties Sunday
evening before ending. Lows Sunday night will range from the
lower 50s west to the mid/upper 50s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The ILN CWA will be in a dry period of cold advection starting on
Monday morning, with a cold front moving east of the region, as a
brief period of surface high pressure ensues. Though clearing skies
are expected, the cooler air mass will result in a drop in max temps
from Sunday to Monday, with highs in the upper 60s to around 70.

With upper level low pressure north of the Great Lakes, the general
flow pattern will gradually amplify, as the parent low spawns an
another upper trough over the middle Mississippi Valley. Though
there is decent agreement between models that most of the southern
stream moisture will remain near and east of the Appalachian
mountains, attention for the middle Ohio Valley will turn to the
forcing just ahead of the low, which will result in gradually
increasing precipitation chances from Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday morning. 00Z/06Z/12Z runs have forced a shift in the
period of highest PoPs, now focused mainly on Wednesday. There has
also been a general trend slower with the eastward progression of
the upper low, which is unsurprising for closed upper systems in
May. PoPs have been held back a little more significantly on
Thursday, with slight chances introduced as well for Friday. This
system will also result in a period of cooler temperatures for
Wednesday and Thursday, possibly improving more significantly by
Friday (unless the low continues to hang around through the end of
the week).

Behind the low, though timing confidence is marginal, there is high
confidence that the overall pattern will switch to ridging over the
southeastern states through the southern Great Lakes. This will
allow for another round of increasing temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface front has pushed south of the TAF sites across northern
KY and become quasi-stationary. Low clouds and fog north of this
boundary which developed this morning are slowly improving and
expect VFR cigs and vsbys in next hour.
Model solns converging showing additional storms developing on
pre-frontal sfc trof overnight. Have brought in prevailing
showers and VCTS with CIGS dropping to MVFR category.

Moderate instability develops with scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing invof of this front as it pivots north
thru the afternoon into this evening. These storms will have
potential for heavy rain/strong to severe winds and have MVFR
CIGs with IFR vsbys. Brief IFR CIGs during storms will also be
possible.

Model solns converging showing additional storms developing on
pre-frontal sfc trof overnight. Have brought in prevailing
showers and VCTS with CIGS dropping to MVFR category.

Front to push east of the TAF sites Sunday afternoon with
conditions improving.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings lingering Sunday afternoon.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1133 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017

OHZ026-034-035-044>046-055-056-065-074-211545-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Franklin OH-Licking-
Fairfield-Hocking-
1133 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Ohio and West Central
Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected today with the best coverage
this afternoon. An isolated storm could reach strong to severe
limits. Damaging winds would be the primary severe weather threat,
although isolated large hail can not be ruled out. Another round of
strong thunderstorms is possible late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning
ahead of an advancing cold front. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ042-043-051>054-060>064-
070>073-077>082-088-211545-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Darke-Shelby-Miami-Champaign-
Clark-Madison-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Butler-
Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-
Scioto-
1133 AM EDT Sat May 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
Thunderstorms are likely today with the best coverage this afternoon.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly this
afternoon. Damaging winds will be the primary severe weather threat,
although isolated large hail can not be ruled out. Thunderstorms will
also be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall which may lead
to some flooding issues. Another round of strong to severe
thunderstorms is possible late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning
ahead of an advancing cold front. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
242 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

KYZ091>093-OHZ077-201915-
Boone KY-Kenton KY-Campbell KY-Hamilton OH-
242 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT KENTON...CAMPBELL...SOUTHERN
BOONE AND SOUTH CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 242 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over Walton,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Pea size hail...
Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Cincinnati, Covington, Florence, Independence, Erlanger, Fort Thomas,
Newport, Edgewood, Alexandria, Elsmere, Fort Mitchell, Villa Hills,
Highland Heights, Taylor Mill, Bellevue, Fort Wright, Dayton, Ludlow,
Southgate and Crescent Springs.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-71 in Kentucky between mile markers 72 and 77.
 I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 3.
 I-75 in Kentucky between mile markers 167 and 180, and between mile
markers 183 and 191.
 I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 3.

Do not stay in the open or seek shelter under trees when lightning
threatens. Move indoors when a thunderstorm approaches.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3879 8460 3880 8462 3880 8464 3886 8474
      3915 8453 3902 8431 3900 8430 3897 8430
      3895 8429 3879 8450
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 217DEG 19KT 3887 8460

Coniglio

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
258 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

KYZ099-OHZ079-081-201930-
Mason KY-Adams OH-Brown OH-
258 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MASON...SOUTHEASTERN
BROWN AND SOUTHWESTERN ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 258 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over Aberdeen,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
One half inch diameter hail...

Locations impacted include...
Maysville, West Union, Manchester, Aberdeen, Decatur, Bentonville,
Moranburg, Bradysville and Somo.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3864 8384 3882 8372 3883 8358 3875 8353
      3869 8360 3868 8363 3865 8364 3858 8371
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 222DEG 20KT 3866 8373

Hatzos

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
310 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

OHZ079-201945-
Brown OH-
310 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN BROWN COUNTY UNTIL 345
PM EDT...

At 310 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Georgetown,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
One half inch diameter hail...

Locations impacted include...
Georgetown, Ripley, Russellville, Lake Waynoka, State Route 32 at US
Route 62 and Redoak.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3883 8399 3898 8379 3898 8368 3885 8369
      3875 8384
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 229DEG 26KT 3881 8386

Hatzos

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
325 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

KYZ093-096-097-OHZ078-079-202000-
Pendleton KY-Campbell KY-Bracken KY-Clermont OH-Brown OH-
325 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN BRACKEN...SOUTHERN
CAMPBELL...NORTHEASTERN PENDLETON...SOUTHERN CLERMONT AND WEST
CENTRAL BROWN COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 325 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Neville,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Pea size hail...
Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Alexandria, Amelia, Bethel, New Richmond, Felicity, Butler,
Withamsville, Mentor, Moscow, Neville, California, Mount Auburn,
Willow Grove, Saltair, New Palestine, Gubser Mill, Nicholsville,
Peach Grove, Ivor and Campbell County Lake.

Do not stay in the open or seek shelter under trees when lightning
threatens. Move indoors when a thunderstorm approaches.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3881 8442 3910 8427 3896 8397 3872 8423
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 210DEG 18KT 3883 8428

Coniglio

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
417 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

OHZ080-081-202045-
Highland OH-Adams OH-
417 PM EDT SAT MAY 20 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ADAMS AND
SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 417 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Peebles,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
One half inch diameter hail...

Locations impacted include...
Peebles, Seaman, Sinking Spring, May Hill, Locust Grove and Serpent
Mound.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3893 8359 3900 8359 3908 8353 3907 8338
      3906 8338 3906 8339 3905 8337 3894 8336
      3890 8349
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 218DEG 34KT 3898 8348

Hatzos