Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
755 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorms will occur ahead of a cold front that will move
across the area late tonight into Monday morning. Much cooler
air will move in behind this system with below normal
temperatures expected through the rest of the week. Wet weather
will return during the latter part of the week as low pressure
slowly tracks across the Tennessee Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Scattered thunderstorms that have been tracking across far
eastern counties this afternoon will move east of the area over
the next several hours. Appears that MCS lifting out of the mid
South will make it into western counties this evening, although
in a continuing weakening phase.

New convection will develop along a strong cold front and move
into the forecast area late tonight, likely after 2 am. CAPE may
still be around 500 J/kg as this enters our area with
instability waning further towards daybreak as the line
progresses east. 0-3 km shear is forecast to be mainly parallel
to the line which is not particularly favorable. But cannot rule
out the potential for some strong to possibly severe storms
late tonight. System is rather progressive, so while there could
be some locally heavy rainfall, the lack of persistent rain
should minimize flood potential. But with saturated ground in
much of the region, could still be some minor flood issues here
or there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Line of showers and thunderstorms will still be ongoing at the
beginning of the period but exiting the area by mid morning as a
cold front moves east. Looks like there could be some clearing
right behind the front. But then the combination of moisture
wrapping in behind the system and insolation should result in a
rather extensive stratocumulus deck. Winds will become gusty. At
this point expect them to remain below wind advisory criteria.

A short wave rotating around an upper low in the Great Lakes
will swing across the region Monday night. This may result in a
few showers, mainly to the north and west of Dayton. In the
wake of this short wave clouds may start to erode from the south
later in the night. Winds will decrease a bit from their speeds
during the day but still persist between 10 and 20 mph.

In cold advection, temperature rise on Monday will only be 5-8
degrees from morning readings. Lows Monday night will fall back
into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level low pressure system situated over the northern Great
Lakes Tuesday morning will shift east across Quebec through Tuesday
night. This will help keep our area in cool cyclonic flow through
the day on Tuesday with a few showers possible across the northern
fringe of our fa. With a 35-45 knot 925-850 mb jet rotating across
our area through the day and some developing low level CAA, winds
will be gusty once again through the day.

Mid level short wave energy dropping down across the Plains will
help carve out a trough over the Mississippi Valley through mid
week. This will eventually lead to a closed low developing which is
then forecast to drift slowly east across the Tennessee Valley
through the end of the week. As an associated surface low moves
slowly east across the Tennessee Valley, expect fairly widespread
showers to slowly overspread the area later Wednesday and into the
day on Thursday. A chance of showers will then linger through Friday
and possibly into Saturday as the upper level low slowly pushes
east. High pressure and a drier airmass will then try to build into
the area for Sunday.

With the cool upper level low affecting the region through much of
the long term period, temperatures will remain several degrees below
normal through most of the week. Some moderation back closer to
normal will be possible by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
All TAF sites currently VFR this evening with an area of low
pressure centered over the Kansas/ Missouri border. The
occluded low pressure will pull northeast with a front pushing
east. Ahead of the front several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms will be possible but uncertainty is high as
coverage will be low. Better agreement exists with the cold
front that is forecasted to push across the TAF sites between
09z and 14z. In general, the latest runs of the HRRR and RAP
have slowed down the frontal passage (along with the band of
showers and thunderstorms) but am having trouble believing this.
Usually the front speeds up at night. For now have kept TAF
forecast package showing similar timing as the previous
package.

As the line of showers and thunderstorms crosses the TAF sites
gusty winds and IFR visibilities will be possible. Behind the
front winds will slowly veer and pick up in speed. GFS and NAM
forecast soundings are showing gusts up to 35 kts possible.
Higher wind gusts will be possible towards DAY/ CMH/ LCK or
closer to the low pressure center.

OUTLOOK...Wind gusts to 35 kt possible Monday evening and then
again on Tuesday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible
Thursday through Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Haines
AVIATION...

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