Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
259 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected into tonight as a cold
front pushes east across the region. The front will stall out to
our south on Friday before lifting back to the north over the
weekend. This will lead to an increasing chance of showers
Friday night into Saturday. A cooler airmass will settle into
the area for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon along
the pre frontal boundary moving across Indiana. MLCapes across
that area are in the 500-1000 J/kg range but they do drop off
some to the east across our area. As a result, there is some
uncertainty as to how well this activity will maintain its
strength as it moves into our area. This initial wave of showers
may also help stabilize the airmass a bit which could also
results in some question as to the strength of the secondary
batch of storms developing across eastern Illinois as they move
eastward. At the moment, deep layer shear is marginal across our
area with 0-6 km values in the 20-25 knot range. This is
forecast to increase from the northwest between 21Z-03Z as some
better upper level energy works into our area. This will also be
accompanied by some cooler air aloft which could also aid in
some enhancement to the instability. Therefore, some uncertainty
exists in regard to the severe threat as we head through late
afternoon and into the early evening hours. It still
seems that the best threat will be across our northwest where
the better deep layer shear will develop. With some decent
mixing across the area this afternoon, dcapes have pushed up
close to 1000 J/kg across parts of our area so if we are able
to get some stronger storms, damaging wind appears to be the
primary threat. The storms should be fairly progressive but PWs
do push up to around 1.5 inches through early evening. As a
result, locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the
stronger storms with some localized flooding possible with
training storms. The cold front will push east across the area
later tonight with pcpn tapering off from the northwest
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The front will continue to move off to the south through the
day on Friday with high pressure trying to work in from the
north. Suppose we could see a few lingering showers across our
far south into Friday morning but for the most part expect dry
conditions. Cooler air filtering in behind the front will lead
to more seasonable temperatures with highs ranging from the
upper 50s in the northwest to the mid and upper 60s in the
southeast. A developing surface wave will help the boundary to
begin to lift back to the north Friday night. This will lead to
an increasing chance of showers across our south through the
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Extensive low pressure tracking across Tennessee along a slow moving
frontal boundary will bring showers Saturday. Southern locations
should see the bulk of showers, and a few rumbles of thunder will be
possible there as well in an environment containing elevated
instability.

Rain chances will gradually diminish Saturday night into Sunday as
the system works east. Weak high pressure is forecast to bring dry
conditions Monday into Tuesday. A wave of low pressure traveling
through the Great Lakes may result in a few more showers Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Additional showers could affect mainly
northern locations Thursday when a warm front is forecast to develop
across the Great Lakes.

Temperatures will start below normal for Saturday, with highs in the
mid 50s limited by clouds, precip, and cold advection on a northeast
low level flow. A rebound to near normal upper 60s can be expected
by Monday due to warm advection and reduced cloud cover, with
further warm advection making above normal 70s probable Tuesday
through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Good mixing across the area this afternoon has allowed for some
gusty southwesterly winds to develop. Meanwhile, showers and
thunderstorms have developed back to our west across Indiana
along a pre frontal boundary. This boundary will push east into
our area through late afternoon, followed by a cold front that
will move through our area later tonight. This will lead to
occasional showers and thunderstorms, primarily in the 22Z-03Z
time frame. As the front moves through, precipitation will
taper off from the northwest overnight. Expect mainly VFR
conditions outside of thunderstorms through the early portions
of the TAF period. However, as the front moves through, some
lingering low level moisture will likely allow for some more
widespread MVFR cloud development late tonight into Friday
morning. Any MVFR cigs should scatter out or lift into VFR by
the later Friday morning and into the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...JGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
310 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017

INZ050-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-211100-
Wayne-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
310 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana and West
Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Occasional showers and thunderstorms will be possible into this
evening. A few of the storms may become severe with damaging winds
the primary threat. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding will
also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather.

INZ058-059-066-073-074-OHZ045-046-051>056-060>065-070>072-077-211100-
Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Union OH-Delaware-
Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-
Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-
310 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central
Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Occasional showers and thunderstorms will be possible into this
evening. A few of the storms may become severe with damaging winds
the primary threat. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding will
also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather.

INZ075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ073-074-078>082-088-211100-
Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Ross-Hocking-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
310 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will occur overnight with a frontal passage. Some
storms may contain strong winds and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heavy rain is possible on Saturday as showers and a few
thunderstorms enter from the southwest. These showers may linger for
a while with a prolonged period of moderate to heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
447 PM EDT THU APR 20 2017

OHZ051-061-062-202115-
Montgomery OH-Greene OH-Miami OH-
447 PM EDT THU APR 20 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN GREENE...
CENTRAL MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHEASTERN MIAMI COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM
EDT...

At 446 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a line
extending from near Englewood to near West Carrollton, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...

Locations impacted include...
Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, Huber Heights, Fairborn, Trotwood,
Vandalia, Englewood, Tipp City, Moraine, Oakwood, Wright-Patterson
Afb, West Carrollton, Brown, Riverside, Clayton, Union, Shiloh,
Ginghamsburg and Fort Mckinley.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 25 and 40.
 I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 47 and 66.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3999 8405 3970 8407 3965 8437 3987 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 232DEG 42KT 3984 8434 3971 8432

Novak

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
513 PM EDT THU APR 20 2017

OHZ054-055-202145-
Madison OH-Franklin OH-
513 PM EDT THU APR 20 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND
NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 513 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near West
Jefferson, moving east at 55 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...

Locations impacted include...
Columbus, Dublin, Upper Arlington, Hilliard, Worthington, Jefferson,
Plain City, West Jefferson, Choctaw Lake, Ohio State University, Lake
Darby, Grandview Heights, Valleyview, Marble Cliff, Riverlea,
Lafayette, Rosedale, Resaca, Clintonville and Interstate 70 at US
Route 42.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 73 and 101.
 I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 105 and 116.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If this storm becomes
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3994 8349 4008 8348 4012 8300 3993 8296
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 259DEG 48KT 4001 8336

JDR