Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
403 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will be observed tonight ahead of
cold front that drops south through the Ohio Valley. High
pressure and dry weather will return to the area for the
beginning of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Westerly mid level wind flow across the area with showers and
thunderstorms developing ahead of pre-frontal surface trof.
ILN/s FA in between two areas of favorable development. Better
organization to our northeast where more favorable shear exists.
More favorable instability has developed to our south. Expect
mixed boundary layer capes of 1000 to 1200 j/kg during the late
aftn into early evening over ILN/s southern counties ahead of
the surface trof.

Wind flow is unidirectional from the west and bulk shear is not
impressive. Wet bulb zero heights are fcst to be between 9000
and 9500 feet and hail growth zone cape values of 200 to 300
j/kg over the south are being observed. Given height of wet
bulb, some hail producing storms will be possible but due to
limited instability severe threat will be limited.

DCAPE values up to 900 j/kg observed over far southern counties.
Therefore some of the better updrafts will have the potential
to produce damaging wind gusts. Also, some of these storms may
produce heavy rain with pw/s of 1.25 to 1.5 inches and due to
the relatively slow movement.

A chance of a shower will linger with the front dropping
southeast through the Ohio Valley late tonight.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s in the north to the
mid/upper 50s in the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level flow amplifies with a west-northwest flow developing.
Surface cold front to drop south into the TN Vly with high
pressure building into the Great Lakes. Clouds will diminish
from north to south. NAM soln continues to be an outlier with
spurious wave spreading pcpn back into ILN/s southern counties
late in the day into Monday night. Have kept the area dry
following a consensus soln. Temperatures Monday will be cooler,
ranging from the upper 60s in the north to the lower 70s in the
far south.

Under the influence of high pressure clouds will diminish with a
dry airmass over the region. Lows Monday night to range from the
mid 40s ne to near 50 southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
On Tuesday morning, surface high pressure will be centered over
Quebec, with weak surface ridging extending southwest into the Ohio
Valley, underneath a pseudo-zonal mid-level flow pattern. With a
relatively dry air mass in place and generally neutral boundary
layer advection, Tuesday appears fairly likely to remain dry, at
least during the day. The ILN CWA will end up between two areas of
mid-level forcing by Tuesday night -- a weak shortwave over the
southeastern states, and a compact shortwave (with a trailing cold
front) moving into the northern Great Lakes. Neither of these
features will make a direct hit on the area, but a gradual increase
in precipitation chances is expected going into Wednesday,
especially as the front nears the northern half of the forecast area
by Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Model runs today have shown a very different solution for Thursday
and beyond. Whereas the aforementioned frontal boundary was
originally expected to hang near the area for another day or two,
both 12Z GFS/ECMWF solutions now depict a progressive wave moving
through the Great Lakes on Thursday. Initially keeping the boundary
north of the area (and thus in a warmer and more unstable air mass),
this now allows for a cold front to cross the region Thursday,
bringing perhaps the best chance for showers and storms during the
week. It is hard to completely buy into this solution given how
different it is from previous model runs, but PoPs have been trended
toward Thursday, and trended away from Friday. Another round of
cyclogenesis in the deep south may eventually spread precipitation
into the area at some point over the weekend, but model spreads
(GEFS members included with regards to timing/amplitude) are too
wide for specific predictions at this point, particularly beyond
Friday evening.

An overall warming trend is expected through Thursday -- increasing
through the 70s -- which (depending on exact frontal timing and
positioning) should be the warmest day of the week, especially in
the southeastern CWA. Cooler conditions (generally 60s) are forecast
for Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Shower and thunderstorms will develop across the TAF sites with
the best coverage south. Expect VFR conditions with ocnl MVFR
CIGS and VSBYS in thunderstorms. These storms will end from
north to south this evening with the passage of a sfc trof and
then cold front. Some solutions bringing a period of MVFR cigs
to the southern TAF sites. Have kept the MVFR deck scattered
with VFR conditions forecast overnight. Expect VFR conditions
to continue Monday with high pressure building in.

Southwest winds will gust up to around 25 kts this aftn and
then shift northwest at 10 kts or less this evening. North to
northeast winds are expected at 10 kts or less Monday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Coniglio/AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
504 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062-170915-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-
Preble-Montgomery-Greene-
504 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ063>065-070>074-077>082-088-170915-
Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-
Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-
Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
504 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and early evening. The main threats will be isolated
damaging wind gusts and large hail. Torrential downpours may lead to
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>