Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Wilmington, OH

796 
WWUS51 KILN 290037
SVSILN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
837 PM EDT FRI APR 28 2017

INC047-290046-
/O.CAN.KILN.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-170429T0045Z/
Franklin IN-
837 PM EDT FRI APR 28 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM EDT for
southeastern Indiana.

LAT...LON 3917 8531 3925 8525 3930 8515 3930 8507
      3903 8512 3907 8536
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 275DEG 49KT 3910 8505 

$$

INC137-290045-
/O.CON.KILN.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-170429T0045Z/
Ripley IN-
837 PM EDT FRI APR 28 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN RIPLEY COUNTY...

At 836 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Moores Hill,
moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Batesville, Versailles, Milan, Osgood, Sunman, Versailles Lake,
Ballstown, Penntown and Interstate 74 at State Route 101.

This includes I-74 in Indiana between mile markers 152 and 157.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

To report severe weather, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and
submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3917 8531 3925 8525 3930 8515 3930 8507
      3903 8512 3907 8536
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 275DEG 49KT 3910 8505 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Sites

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
338 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight into Saturday as
a warm front lifts north across the Ohio Valley. A much warmer
airmass will be in place across the area through the weekend. A
cold front will bring another chance of precipitation Sunday
night into Monday and usher in a cooler airmass for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Latest surface analysis is showing the warm front stretching
from far southwest Kentucky eastward into southern West
Virginia. Along and south of this boundary, skies have been
mostly clear through much of the day and this has allowed for
some decent destabilization with surface based capes in the 1000
to locally 2000 J/KG range across parts southern Kentucky.
Farther north across our area, instability is much more limited
so far as skies have been mostly cloudy over all but our far
southern areas. The front is forecast to shift slowly north
through tonight but the northward extent remains in doubt and
will dictate both the severe threat into the evening and the
potential for flash flooding overnight.

The his res cams continue to bounce around on the placement/track
of developing convection currently back across southeast
Missouri. The HRRR has generally been trending slightly farther
north but occasional runs have remained south of our area.
Meanwhile, the 12Z WRF-ARW is farther south while the NMM is much
farther north. Meanwhile, 12Z NSSL WRF is more in the middle,
affecting much of our southern fa. Based on the position of the
front attm, would expect to see some additional development in
the warm sector over the next couple of hours as some weak mid
level short wave energy begins to move into the lower Ohio
Valley. If this develops, would expect the bulk of this to track
along or just south of our area and contain the highest severe
threat, as this will be on the instability gradient and close
to the area of better low level shear along the boundary. If
these do develop, this would lead to the potential for some
rotating storms across our far southern fa as we head into this
evening. Farther north of the boundary, storms should be more
elevated, leading to a primary severe threat of hail.

Good moisture advection over the front will help push PWS up to
around 2 inches tonight. The synoptic models are farther north
with the boundary and thus with the axis of heavy rain overnight
tonight. This leads to quite a bit of uncertainty as to the
flash flood potential. For now, will lean toward sticking with
the current FFA, thinking that the best chance for any flash
flooding would be with potential training storms across our
southwest heading into tonight. However, depending on radar
trends, this may need to be adjusted farther north and/or east
as the event begins to play out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The boundary will continue to lift northward through the day on
Saturday. As we get into the warm sector, southern portions of
our fa will push well into the 80s with good instability
developing as we head through the day. Pcpn chances will again
be dependent on the placement and timing of the front, but given
the instability, will allow for chance pops to slowly lift
north across the area with the boundary through the day. As the
front pushes off to our north, we should see a decreasing chance
of pcpn across the north heading into Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Area will be in the warm sector on Sunday which will allow
temperatures to be very warm with forecast highs just a few degrees
below records. Cannot rule out a few storms drifting into western
counties, although most activity will be west of the forecast area.

Occluded front will sweep through the region Sunday night into
Monday. Expect a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms to track
across the area with this feature. Instability looks weak and
precipitation will be progressive, so threats seems to be quite
limited.

Closed low will lift from the Mississippi Valley into the western
Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday before opening up and tracking east.
Associated surface low will pass north of the area. But there will
be a strong gradient south of the low. So expect gusty winds Monday
into Tuesday. A few showers could pass across the area Monday.

High pressure will briefly build in later Tuesday into Tuesday
night. But the precipitation will already start to spread into
southwest counties on Wednesday as a warm front develops south of
the area. The front will become more pronounced until low pressure
moves through the Tennessee Valley Thursday into Thursday night. So
there will be a chance of showers during this time period. The
chance of rain will then diminish on Friday.

After the occluded front moves through, temperatures will be below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop through the
late afternoon and into the overnight hours as a warm front
lifts north into the Ohio Valley. There remains quite a bit of
uncertainty as to the timing and placement of these storms
though which leads to a low confidence forecast, especially
into tonight. Will trend the TAFs toward the general consensus
of the higher res models, allowing for thunder at the terminals
mainly in the 23-03Z time frame, with the best chance at the
southern sites. This will lead to some MVFR vsbys along with
the potential for IFR or lower in any thunderstorms, as locally
heavy rainfall will be possible. Cigs will start off VFR but
should trend to MVFR as the low levels moisten up overnight,
especially along and north of the boundary. MVFR cigs will then
likely linger through the morning hours along and north of the
boundary, mainly affecting the northern TAF sites. The threat
for showers will persist through much of the night and possibly
into Saturday morning, but this will be somewhat dependent on
the exact placement of the frontal boundary.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities with a chance of thunderstorms
are possible Saturday, Sunday night and Monday. Wind gusts to 35
kt possible Sunday into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM EDT this evening through Saturday
     morning for OHZ070>072-077>081.
KY...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM EDT this evening through Saturday
     morning for KYZ089>099.
IN...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM EDT this evening through Saturday
     morning for INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1212 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

INZ050-058-059-KYZ100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074-
082-088-290930-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-
Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-
Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Ross-
Hocking-Pike-Scioto-
1212 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Northeast Kentucky, Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central
Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon through
tonight. A few severe storms are possible, with primary threats of
large hail and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms may continue into Saturday. A few severe storms are
possible, with primary threats of large hail and heavy rainfall.

Wind gusts up to 40 MPH are possible on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>099-OHZ070>072-077>081-290930-
Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Butler-
Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-
1212 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northern
Kentucky and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon through
tonight. Some severe storms are possible. The primary threat is
large hail. However, damaging wind and tornadoes are not out of the
question.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Thunderstorms may continue into Saturday. A few severe storms are
possible, with primary threat of large hail.

Wind gusts up to 40 MPH are possible on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and tonight.