Severe Thunderstorm Warning 250, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
349 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into early evening as a
strong cold front pushes through the region. Precipitation will
then taper off overnight as a much cooler airmass settles into
the region for Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The surface low is moving into far northwest Ohio attm with the
attendent cold front extending southwest from it across central
Indiana and into far southeast Illinois. The front is forecast
to sweep east across our area through early evening, As it does,
the convective line along and ahead of the front will continue
to overspread our area through late afternoon. These storms are
being enhanced by a narrow band of marginal ML capes (generally
less than 500 j/kg) advecting up into southern Indiana. The
models continue to show this weakening as it progresses east
into our area through early evening which may help limit the
severe threat across our area. A period of heavy rain will also
be likely with the storms. Overall, they should be progressive
enough to limit widespread flooding concerns. However, the line
does appear to be laying out a bit more west to east across our
north. This is also in the area that received the heavier rain
this morning, so will go ahead and continue with the flood watch
and also expand it about a tier of counties to the south.

A deformation axis back to the west across Illinois will pivot
east across our area later this evening and into the early
morning hours. This will lead to some lingering showers into
tonight but they should taper off from the west later tonight
as drier air works in from the west. Gradient winds out ahead of
the front continue to be impressive with occasional winds gusts
in excess of 40 knots occurring across our southern areas.

The low level thermal fields off the NAM and GFS are both
keeping pcpn mainly rain through the night over all but
possibly our northwest. The cobb method is trying to show a mix
developing up across our northwest later this evening possibly
working east through the overnight hours and this may be more
representative given the good CAA developing in the low levels.
Will therefore go ahead and at least allow for a rain snow mix
for a brief period before tapering off the pops overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
We will remain in weak cyclonic flow and low level CAA through
much of the day on Sunday as a secondary mid level short wave
pivots across the region. There will be a fetch off of Lake
Michigan but moisture will generally be limited to below 850 mb.
This could lead to a few snow showers through early afternoon,
especially across northern portions of our area. In the CAA,
expect highs on Sunday only in the mid to possibly upper 30s.
Surface high pressure will build in from the southwest Sunday
night allowing the low level flow to begin to back. This should
allow for clearing skies Sunday night with lows dropping down
into the mid 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure will push off the the east through the
day on Monday. As we start to get into some return flow,
temperatures will begin to moderate with highs rising into the
mid to upper 40s. Short wave energy rotating across the upper
Great Lakes will help push a cold front southeast across our
area Tuesday into Tuesday night. Moisture is limited with this
so will maintain a dry forecast at this point. Highs on Tuesday
will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

We will remain in a northwest flow pattern through the end of
the week. There are some timing and placement differences
between the models with weak energy dropping down toward the
area through Friday. However, the airmass will remain relatively
dry with the next chance of pcpn not until some stronger energy
drops down from the northwest heading into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An intense line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of an
approaching cold front will push east across the TAf sites
through late afternoon and into early this evening. These
storms will produce heavy rainfall with cigs/vsbys likely
dropping to VLIFR for a period of time. Ahead of the front,
southerly gradient winds will continue to produce sustained
winds in the 20-30 knot range with a few gusts up close to 40
knots. As the line of storms comes through, wind gusts in excess
of 40 knots will be possible with any stronger storm. Given the
strong flow at and just above the surface, will also hang on to
a mention of LLWS through early evening.

Once the cold front moves through, winds will swing around to
the west-northwest with wind gusts up to around 40 knots
persisting through the evening. Some showers will also likely
linger into the overnight hours before tapering off as some
drier air works in from the west. Will continue with MVFR cigs
through the remainder of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
     Flood Watch until midnight EST tonight for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046.
KY...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...JGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
411 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

INZ050-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051-052-191100-
Wayne-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-
Miami-Champaign-
411 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue into early evening,
producing heavy rainfall and localized flooding issues.

In addition, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
through early evening. Damaging winds will be the primary severe
weather threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to relay any significant weather conditions.

INZ058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ053>056-060>065-070>074-
077>082-088-191100-
Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-
Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-
Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-
Scioto-
411 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue into early evening as a
strong cold front moves through the area. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible through early evening. Damaging winds
will be the primary severe weather threat. In addition, the storms
will be capable of producing heavy rain that may result in localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Spotters are encouraged to relay any significant weather conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
349 PM EST SAT NOV 18 2017

INZ050-OHZ042-060-182115-
Wayne IN-Darke OH-Preble OH-
349 PM EST SAT NOV 18 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WAYNE...NORTHWESTERN PREBLE AND
SOUTHWESTERN DARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EST...

At 349 PM EST, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over Hagerstown,
moving east at 30 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...

Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Centerville, Cambridge City, Hagerstown, New Paris,
Fountain City, Dublin, Franklin, Greens Fork, East Germantown, Spring
Grove, Bethel, Hollansburg, Economy, Boston, Mount Auburn,
Whitewater, Richmond Municipal Airport, West Florence and Middleboro.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-70 in Indiana between mile markers 134 and 156.
 I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 3.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3987 8522 3987 8520 4000 8520 4000 8481
      4004 8481 4004 8476 3973 8474 3978 8518
      3979 8518 3979 8522
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 271DEG 26KT 3992 8519

Haines

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
354 PM EST SAT NOV 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 ESE COVINGTON         39.06N 84.45W
11/18/2017                   CAMPBELL           KY   PUBLIC

            PINE TREE DOWNED AT HIGHLAND COUNTRY CLUB. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

&&

KC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
357 PM EST SAT NOV 18 2017

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ060-070-182130-
Fayette IN-Union IN-Wayne IN-Franklin IN-Butler OH-Preble OH-
357 PM EST SAT NOV 18 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN
SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...SOUTHERN WAYNE...UNION AND FAYETTE COUNTIES IN
EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHWESTERN PREBLE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN OHIO UNTIL 430
PM EST...

At 357 PM EST, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Connersville, moving east at 30 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...

Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Oxford, Connersville, Liberty, Dublin, West College Corner,
Glenwood, Salem, Waterloo, Blooming Grove, Columbia, Bunker Hill,
Abington, Brownsville, Laurel, College Corner, Boston, Richmond
Municipal Airport, Dunlapsville and Whitewater State Park.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3979 8530 3979 8522 3981 8522 3974 8472
      3949 8472 3949 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 270DEG 26KT 3965 8518

Haines

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