Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
503 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper air disturbances tracking through the area will keep
unsettled weather across the region into Tuesday. Hot
temperatures will spread in on Wednesday. A cold front will sag
south towards the area later in the week bringing a return of
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MCV continues to track east across northern Ohio with convection
occurring out ahead of it. The environment in central Ohio has
become favorable for vigorous updrafts which has led to severe
storms with heavy rainfall as well. This activity will push out
of the forecast area over the next few hours.

Additional showers and thunderstorms tracking southeast across
Indiana are much weaker and should continue to dissipate.
However, new convection is expected to develop a bit further
northwest as a short wave drops out of the upper midwest.
Guidance suggests and east-west oriented line of showers and
thunderstorms will drop into the forecast area late this evening
with a general diminishing trend through the overnight. Lows are
forecast to be in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
East-west moist axis, south of a front that will remain across
northern Indiana and Ohio, will extend across the forecast area
with new showers and thunderstorms developing along this axis
during the day. Shear is forecast to be weak but instability may
sufficient for some strong to severe storms. Bigger concern will
be for heavy rainfall with training and/or back building storms
in an environment of high precipitable water and deep warm cloud
depths. Activity will gradually diminish during the evening and
start to lift north.

Highs will be a bit suppressed by showers and thunderstorms, and
could end up being a bit warm if activity ends up being
extensive enough. Tuesday night will once again have lows in the
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A vertically stacked upper level low will be located southeast of
the Hudson Bay Wednesday morning with a warm front pulling north
into Michigan. Some rain will be possible Wednesday morning ahead of
the warm front, but most of the day should be dry Wednesday as lower
PWAT air works into the area (PWAT ~ 1.30"). 850 mb temperatures on
both the GFS and ECMWF continue to be forecasted around 20 degrees C
Wednesday. Overall this would support high temperatures in the lower
90s. Have gone a little below guidance here though as wet soil and a
moist atmosphere will likely hold temperatures back slightly.

On Thursday, a short-wave that was over the Pacific northwest a
couple of days ago will be pushing southeast into Minnesota around
the upper level low off to the east. Ahead of the short-wave weak
PVA will traverse the region helping to provide weak upper level
support. Forecast soundings also do destabilize Thursday and with
PWATs back on the rise PoPs may need to be raised. For now have held
off as uncertainty remains in where the upper level disturbances
will be.

During the day Friday a surface front will push south in association
with the short-wave. Models continue to struggle here on exactly how
quickly and where the short-wave will go around an amplifying ridge
of high pressure. The ECMWF and the GFS in general try to push the
front through the area Friday evening. Behind the front expect
drier and cooler conditions.

A reinforcing front is then expected to dive south and push through
the area Sunday. Some precipitation will be possible with the front
but given the uncertainty have left out of the forecast package for
now.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Developing thunderstorms may impact the Columbus TAFs early in
the period. Otherwise, the probability of any terminals being
impacted by showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the
daytime period is low. So VFR will prevail although south
southwest winds will remain gusty until around 00Z.

Appears that additional showers and thunderstorms will form
north of the region and sag south overnight. Due to timing
uncertainties, have used a broad range of VCSH/VCTS to indicate
the period of greatest potential. South winds will be persistent
through the night.

There is some potential for MVFR ceilings to develop and impact
locations from KDAY to KCMH/KLCK late in the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday and evening and then
again Thursday and Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Haines
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
528 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074-110930-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-
Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Ross-Hocking-
528 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Several rounds of thunderstorms are expected to move across the
region today. Some of these storms could produce damaging straight
line winds and large hail. Heavy rainfall may also occur which could
lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hot and humid conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday which
may result in heat indices rising into the mid to upper 90s both
days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ070>072-077>082-088-110930-
Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-
Butler-Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-
Scioto-
528 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms developing today will result in heavy downpours that
may cause localized flooding. In addition, some thunderstorms may
produce isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hot and humid conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday which
may result in heat indices rising into the mid to upper 90s both
days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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