Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
350 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary across the region will act as a focus for
scattered showers and thunderstorms today into Saturday. A cold
front will move into the region Sunday, providing a greater
chance for precipitation, before drier and cooler conditions
move into the area on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Showers and thunderstorms have formed just west of the area
today and are quickly approaching as an upper level disturbance
approaches from the west. High res models continue to show
coverage increasing across the forecast area this evening esp
across the frontal zone. CAPE values are around 2000 to 3000
J/kg across the CWA with DCAPE values above 1000 J/kg across the
southeastern zones. Effective shear values are maxed out at 50
kts just north of the front with much lower values south of the
front. Given the strong CAPE and DCAPE values coupled with the
upper level disturbance SPC has issues SVR thunderstorm watch
247 until 3z. Late this evening/ early Saturday morning coverage
will begin to diminish as weak subsidence arrives on the back
side of the shortwave.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday morning the stalled front will sag southwards behind
the shortwave with fog possible across and ahead of the
boundary. Saturday morning the stalled front will begin to lift
north as a warm front. As this happens scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible. Saturday afternoon the chance of
thunderstorms will continue as weak shortwave moves in from the
southwest. Saturday night into Sunday morning the upper level
low will rotate northeast towards Minnesota and take on a
negative tilt. As this happens strong upper level divergence
from the RRQ and upper level diffluence from splitting flow will
move into the region. PWATs at this time are also forecasted to
rise to around 1.80". Given the strong signals above have kept
categorical PoPs. Instability will be decreasing at the time but
shear values will be increasing. Thanks to the increasing shear
values SPC has put the area in a slight risk for Day 2.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
It appears that the aforementioned cold front will move slowly east
through our region Sunday into Sunday night. The slow movement is in
part due to the mid level ridge to our east. In either case,
categorical PoPs for showers and thunderstorms can be expected on
Sunday. Precipitation will come to an end behind frontal passage
which should move out of our eastern zones by early Monday morning.
Temperatures will be held down some Sunday due to clouds and pcpn
with cooler air moving in Sunday night behind the front.

Surface high pressure will build into our region on Monday, giving a
period of dry but cooler weather.

The upper level pattern will become highly amplified during the
upcoming week which will eventually lead to a mean mid level trough
setting up residence across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. There
continues to be some timing issues with the next cold front to push
through the region Tuesday into Wednesday. A chance of showers will
continue during this period, with thunder possible during the peak
heating of Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

By Thursday, mid level trough will be slow to progress to the east
which may keep a few lingering showers.

Another quick moving system in the northwest flow aloft may bring
another threat for showers Thursday night into Friday.

Below normal temperatures can be expected by mid to late week with
highs only in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday, then perhaps getting
back into the 70s on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms have formed just west and east of the
TAF sites this afternoon with all locations currently VFR. An
upper level disturbance can currently be seen on WV heading east
with numerous thunderstorms developing out ahead. Latest suite
of high res have these showers and thunderstorms pushing east
and affecting the eastern TAF sites starting around 21z. Inside
heavier thunderstorms IFR or lower restrictions to visibility
will be possible. As the shortwave heads east a brief period of
subsidence will occur. As this happens the weak front will sag
south. Light winds with plenty of moisture will allow fog/ mist
to form. Low ceilings will also be possible (esp. if winds
remain slightly elevated) behind the boundary. The main question
with the cigs vs. fog will be the placement of the boundary.
For now have trended TAFs towards the NAM solution which pushes
the front slightly further south. During the late morning/ early
afternoon Saturday another batch of showers and thunderstorms
will be possible as the warm front lifts north.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms with MVFR conditions are possible
through Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...Haines
SHORT TERM...Haines
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Haines

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
356 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

OHZ026-034-035-202000-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-
356 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

An area of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late
Saturday night early Sunday morning ahead of an advancing cold
front. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ042>046-051>056-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088-202000-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-
Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-
Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-
Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-
Scioto-
356 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Strong to severe storms will be possible. Damaging winds will be the
primary severe weather threat, although isolated large hail can not
be ruled out. Thunderstorms will also be capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall which may lead to some flooding issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

An area of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late
Saturday night early Sunday morning ahead of an advancing cold
front. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and this evening.

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