Areal Flood Advisory 252, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
348 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A humid airmass will combine with daytime heating and mid level
disturbances to produce a threat for thunderstorms through
Monday. High pressure and dry conditions are expected for
Tuesday into Wednesday. Another system will bring additional
showers and thunderstorms to the region for Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Storms firing on the instability of daytime heating and a
sufficiently moist lower level will continue to spark this
afternoon and early evening. Highest potential threat is heavy
rain with tremendous rainfall rates over 2"/hr and the chance
for those storms to train over a particular area. Flash flood
watch was considered but held off given the uncertainty of the
placement and evolution of the event today and tonight. Heavy
rain was introduced to the forecast as a compromise.

Heat indicies in the south are in the established
advisory/warning area and will likely be modified this afternoon
with blowoff cloud cover limiting runaway temperatures, but mid
70s and higher dewpoints increasing the oppressive nature of the
airmass. Will let the advisory/warning expire at 8pm.

All indications are for a pseudo w-e line of storms to drop
south tonight. This may occur a few hours earlier than models
are forecasting and could be initiating at the issuance of this
AFD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures will not be able to return to the lower 90s and the
threat for heat indicies is significantly lowered. However,
humid and sticky conditions will most definitely persist.

Storms that are around early in the day will probably push east
as a surface boundary sets up sw-ne and conditions improve from
nw-se as the day progresses.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Pattern change will offer break from the heat and humidity.
Weak front pushing through may bring widely scattered
showers/storms Monday afternoon. Have included small pop for
this mainly in the south/southeast portions of forecast area.
High pressure builds in for Tuesday and Wednesday with seasonal
temps with lower dewpoints. Another cold front will approach
late Wednesday night and push through Thursday and Thursday
night with scattered showers and storms. Front should continue
to the south and east Friday with cooler and less humid air back
in for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Until showers and thunderstorms hit the TAF sites, VFR
conditions will be present in a muggy atmosphere. Overnight may
see vsbys drop to the MVFR category in mist, and storms will
remain possible at any time for entire forecast area through the
next 24-30 hours. Model guidance is problematic and
timing/occurrence/placement of storms remains in high question
in this moist and conditionally unstable airmass. Will try to
limit thunderstorm potential to where it has the highest
probability...likely later this evening and overnight.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Sunday and Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ070>072-
     078>081-088.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ077.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Padgett
AVIATION...Franks

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
202 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

OHZ077-231815-
Hamilton-
202 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Warning.

Thunderstorms will re-develop this afternoon and early evening.
The primary threat will be an increased flooding potential due to
very heavy rainfall, as well as the potential for isolated damaging
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms will move across the region on Sunday. Some storms may
become severe with the main severe threats being very heavy rainfall
and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ070-071-078-079-231815-
Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Butler-Warren-Clermont-Brown-
202 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky and
Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Thunderstorms will re-develop this afternoon and early evening.
The primary threat will be an increased flooding potential due to
very heavy rainfall, as well as the potential for isolated damaging
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms will move across the region on Sunday. Some storms may
become severe with the main severe threats being very heavy rainfall
and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ050-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074-082-231815-
Wayne-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-
Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-
Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Ross-Hocking-Pike-
202 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will re-develop this afternoon and early evening. The
primary threat will be an increased flooding potential due to very
heavy rainfall, as well as the potential for isolated damaging
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms will move across the region on Sunday. Some storms may
become severe with the main severe threats being very heavy rainfall
and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ072-080-081-088-231815-
Clinton-Highland-Adams-Scioto-
202 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Thunderstorms will re-develop this afternoon and early evening. The
primary threat will be an increased flooding potential due to very
heavy rainfall, as well as the potential for isolated damaging
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms will move across the region on Sunday. Some storms may
become severe with the main severe threats being very heavy rainfall
and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
603 PM EDT SAT JUL 22 2017

OHZ074-222230-
Hocking OH-
603 PM EDT SAT JUL 22 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN HOCKING COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM EDT...

At 603 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Hocking
Hills State Park, moving east at 40 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Pea size hail...

Locations impacted include...
Hocking Hills State Park, Starr, Laurelville, South Bloomingville,
Buena Vista in Hocking County, Gibisonville, Ilesboro, Union Furnace
and Haydenville.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3938 8229 3939 8251 3937 8252 3937 8263
      3936 8264 3936 8268 3939 8275 3946 8274
      3957 8270 3956 8262 3957 8262 3947 8228
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 290DEG 36KT 3947 8265

Hatzos