Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
337 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected
across most of the area through Friday. High pressure will try
to reassert itself later in the weekend, as a trough is
reinforced to our west. A cold front will approach from the
northwest early next week, likely increasing the coverage of
showers and thunderstorms once again.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...Several clusters of thunderstorms were
ongoing across the area and these storms were producing 1 to 2
inches of rain in a short period of time and frequent lightning.
The heavy rain may cause significant ponding. There is a very
small risk for hail. One or two wet microbursts could cause a
brief strong to damaging wind event. This activity is expected
to continue to blossom through late day and then as we lose the
influences of heating later this eve and a mid-level shortwave
ridge builds, we expect the thunderstorms and showers to dwindle
and come to an end as considerable cloud cover lingers
overnight. Winds above the boundary layer should stay elevated
which should alleviate significant fog development along the
coast late tonight. Winds above the boundary layer will not be
quite as strong/persistent inland and here we may see some
patchy fog development, but hazardous visibilities are not
expected at this time.

The airmass Fri will be very similar to today and as a mid-level
shortwave trough to our W gains traction in our direction, showers
and thunderstorms are again expected.

Lows tonight will be in the low and mid 70s. Highs on Fri will again
be mainly in the lower 90s with mid and upper 80s along the nearly
pinned seabreeze.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...Scattered, mainly shallow convection
will likely continue Friday night after the normal diurnal
decrease. LCL's will be very low in such a humid airmass and
weak little shortwave impulses will provide lift adequate for
light showers. Saturday appears to be a repeat of the last few
days with a little low stratus to start followed by sunshine and
destabilization. There doesn't seem much to focus Saturday
afternoon's convection per se, and there is poor agreement
between the GFS/WRF regarding the best moisture being coastal or
inland. The slightly more inland GFS solution appears more
favorable at this time. The sea breeze should also manage to
produce but those storms will tend to drift away from the
beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...The pattern has not changed much in the
global models in the past 24 hours. The southeast United States
is located in a break between 2 high pressure centers. At 500
mb the area will be in between two ridges. The Piedmont trough
will be well established and will be replaced with a cool front
which will settle into the area on Tuesday. The GFS is showing
an increase in moisture to over 2 inches starting on Monday and
remain moist through Thursday.

The impact will be a chance of afternoon and evening convection
then an increase to likely convection late Monday into Tuesday.
High temperatures will be in the lower 90s inland and the upper
80s at the beaches except for the mid 80s on Tuesday with the
increased clouds and convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 18Z...Typical summertime weather regime in place will
yield showers and thunderstorms with the greatest coverage of
convection expected mid and late afternoon through early to mid
eve. Thunderstorms will be slow movers and have the potential
for MVFR or lower ceilings and visibility in heavy rain. The
risk for flight restrictions appears lowest at KCRE and KMYR,
but will still carry a tempo group, but over a shorter duration
here. The convection should dwindle late eve and overnight. Have
added MVFR stratus at the coastal terminals near and after
sunrise, otherwise VFR during this time. The potential for
reduced visibility and ceilings in showers and thunderstorms
will return Fri afternoon.

Extended Outlook...The risk for flight restrictions due to mainly
afternoon and eve thunderstorms will continue through the period.
The probability for reduced ceilings and visibility in
thunderstorms with heavy rain should be highest Fri and Sat and
perhaps again Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

As of 330 PM Thursday...Several clusters of thunderstorms were
ongoing across the area and these storms were producing 1 to 2
inches of rain in a short period of time and frequent lightning.
The heavy rain may cause significant ponding. There is a very
small risk for hail. One or two wet microbursts could cause a
brief strong to damaging wind event. This activity is expected
to continue to blossom through late day and then as we lose the
influences of heating later this eve and a mid-level shortwave
ridge builds, we expect the thunderstorms and showers to dwindle
and come to an end as considerable cloud cover lingers
overnight. Winds above the boundary layer should stay elevated
which should alleviate significant fog development along the
coast late tonight. Winds above the boundary layer will not be
quite as strong/persistent inland and here we may see some
patchy fog development, but hazardous visibilities are not
expected at this time.

The airmass Fri will be very similar to today and as a mid-level
shortwave trough to our W gains traction in our direction, showers
and thunderstorms are again expected.

Lows tonight will be in the low and mid 70s. Highs on Fri will again
be mainly in the lower 90s with mid and upper 80s along the nearly
pinned seabreeze.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...Scattered, mainly shallow convection
will likely continue Friday night after the normal diurnal
decrease. LCL's will be very low in such a humid airmass and
weak little shortwave impulses will provide lift adequate for
light showers. Saturday appears to be a repeat of the last few
days with a little low stratus to start followed by sunshine and
destabilization. There doesn't seem much to focus Saturday
afternoon's convection per se, and there is poor agreement
between the GFS/WRF regarding the best moisture being coastal or
inland. The slightly more inland GFS solution appears more
favorable at this time. The sea breeze should also manage to
produce but those storms will tend to drift away from the
beaches.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...Not much change in the forecast over
the past 24 hours as the coastal waters will be in the break of
the subtropical ridge over the Atlantic. Winds will be from the
south-southwest at 10 to 15 knots and seas will run around 3 to
5 feet on Sunday with a slight decrease to 3 to 4 feet by on
Monday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...DRH
AVIATION...RJD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
354 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056-162000-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-
Inland New Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-Inland Brunswick-
Coastal Brunswick-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-
Williamsburg-Inland Horry-Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-
Coastal Georgetown-
354 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Strong thunderstorms possible into this evening. Significant ponding
is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong thunderstorms possible Friday afternoon and evening. Significant
ponding is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

AMZ250-252-254-256-162000-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
354 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
307 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

SCZ056-151930-
Coastal Georgetown SC-
307 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEASTERN GEORGETOWN COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM EDT...

At 307 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Georgetown. This storm was nearly stationary.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Georgetown, DeBordieu Colony, Yawkey South Island, Winyah Bay
Entrance and Georgetown Memorial Hospital.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3329 7938 3343 7931 3346 7927 3342 7913
      3338 7915 3335 7915 3327 7918 3324 7918
      3320 7917 3318 7919
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 295DEG 4KT 3335 7926

MBB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
320 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GEORGETOWN              33.36N  79.30W
06/15/2017                   GEORGETOWN         SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT OF A LARGE TREE DOWN ON HWY 17.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1700110

LACORTE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
322 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     HAIL             GEORGETOWN              33.36N  79.30W
06/15/2017  M1.25 INCH       GEORGETOWN         SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT OF QUARTER SIZED TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1700111

LACORTE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
325 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     HAIL             GEORGETOWN              33.36N  79.30W
06/15/2017  M0.50 INCH       GEORGETOWN         SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CORRECTED EVENT...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER ILM1700111

LACORTE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
401 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW MILL CREEK        34.08N  78.10W
06/15/2017                   BRUNSWICK          NC   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON GEORGE II HWY NEAR
            MARTINVILLE DR. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1700112

LACORTE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
403 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

NCZ087-096-099-152045-
Robeson NC-Columbus NC-Bladen NC-
403 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 403 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bladenboro, or 12 miles southwest of Elizabethtown, moving southeast
at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lumberton, Whiteville, Chadbourn, Bladenboro, Boardman, Smiths,
Howellsville, Abbottsburg, Butters, Hestertown, Elkton, Emerson,
Council, Southeastern Community College, Evergreen, Brunswick,
Clarkton, Columbus Regional Healthcare System and Southeastern
Regional Medical Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3463 7906 3472 7891 3441 7843 3425 7881
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 320DEG 15KT 3451 7878

MBB