Small Craft Advisory 25, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
221 AM EDT Fri May 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to march across the area
this morning associated with a complex storm system moving
across the Tennessee Valley. The rain will end late this morning
leaving a blustery and cooler weekend in its wake. Cool
condtions will persist into early next week with dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Friday...Three distinct convective bands continue to
rotate across the area from south to north associated with a
strong mid level cyclone moving through the Tennessee Valley.
The one now entering western South Carolina is associated with
the cold front. High resolution guidance as well as the GFS
insists the lines will merge in the next few hours with better
forcing and higher rainfall to the north then finally
concentrating along the coast with good coupled low and mid
level forcing. I have attempted to align pops in this manner
although for at least a couple of hours categorical and likely
values remain. As the band shapes up along the coast, far
western areas should see a more scattered to isolated nature in
the activity. The band tends to linger along the coast through
at least 15 and possibly 18 UTC. The tornado thread has
decreased inland due to the atmosphere turning over. The coastal
areas continue to have temperatures in the lower to middle 70s
with dewpoints just below hence some surface instability
remains. The tornado watch may need to be extended in these
areas. Beyond this a blustery southwest flow will persist with
decreasing clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Friday...Deep surface low pressure over New York state
Saturday will move into southern Quebec province by Sunday. The real
action will be upstairs where an unusually strong upper level low
centered over the eastern Great Lakes will move very little through
the weekend. The PSU GFS anomalies webpage shows 500 mb heights near
4 standard deviations below normal tonight across WV/PA.

An impressive shortwave trough will rotate around the south end of
this upper low Saturday night, driving a reinforcing shot of cool,
dry air southward across the Carolinas. 500 mb temperatures diving
down to -20C are among the coldest values observed this late in the
spring according to the SPC sounding climatology website. Enough mid-
level moisture should coexist with these cold temperatures aloft and
with dynamic lift just ahead of the shortwave to sustain a line of
showers Saturday evening. Although this activity will be convective
in nature, it won't be surface-based given the dry and rather cool
airmass in place down low in the atmosphere. The best rainfall
potential (30-40 percent forecast PoPs) exists north of Florence,
Marion, Whiteville, and Wilmington. Everything should sweep offshore
after midnight and dry weather will develop for late Saturday
night into Sunday.

Normal highs for this time of year range from 75 on the beaches to
around 80 inland. We won't be achieving these numbers this weekend
with only low-mid 70s expected both days. With clear skies, light
winds, and very dry air in place Sunday night lows should fall into
the 40s inland from the coast. I checked and this isn't even close
to record lows which are in the 30s (!) in Wilmington, Florence and
Myrtle Beach from a cold wave in 1989.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 PM Thursday...Unseasonably cool and dry weather will
mark the late weekend to early next week time period, as air
of Canadian origin is pulled into the Carolinas by a large
upper low lifting northward into the Great Lakes and SE Canada.
Deep and dry W-WNW flow aloft and downslope wind flow in the
low levels will make for a comfortable feel with no trace of
mugginess the first half of the week at least, with daytime
highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. No mentionable POP values
planned for the extended period although by Thursday we should
begin to see in influx of column moisture into the region on
WSW-NW trajectories with temperatures reaching normal readings
for this time of May.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 06Z...Expect MVFR conditions to persist for a few more
hours at all sites with a couple more convective bands to move
across. High resolution guidance paints the coastal areas with
the most significant rainfall beginning around 9-10 UTC so I did
opt to address these areas with TEMPO IFR conditions. MVFR
conditions later this morning will gradually improve to VFR and
persist through the remainder of the period.

Extended outlook...Mainly VFR thru the weekend and into early
next week. Brief MVFR ceilings possible late Fri night into
Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Friday...Winds and seas ramping up as expected with the
convection and stronger low level wind fields. 41013 is now up to
near sustained 25 knots with seas approaching eight feet. A few
gusts over 30 knots have been noted as well. Speeds will likely add
a couple more knots in the next few hours as the strongest of winds
pass by. A range of 25-30 still fits nicely. By later this morning
speeds will begin the drop and end up this afternoon in a 20-25 knot
range where they will remain more or less through early Saturday.
Significant seas appear peak around 12z this morning at 8-11 feet
then begin the slow decent down to 5-7 feet by Saturday morning. The
Gale Warning continues to 6 PM this evening.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Friday...Strong low pressure will move from New York
state on Saturday into southern Quebec by Sunday. A disturbance
pinwheeling around this main low will sweep eastward across the
Carolinas Saturday night bringing a period of strong westerly winds
possibly reaching gale force for several hours in the very tight
pressure gradient. Westerly breezes will continue Sunday but at much
weaker speeds as high pressure over the Mississippi Valley begins to
push eastward.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...A very manageable marine period as
offshore flow of moderate strength endures mainly 15 KT or less,
as a low pulls well north of the waters and high pressure
builds in from the northwest. As a result, inshore seas will
remain suppressed, but a little higher offshore as fetch length
is increased. The air column will remain dry this period and no
TSTMS or marine rain showers are expected and no marine fog to
contend with. Seas of 3 feet or less expected much of the
extended period but up to 4 feet offshore on Sunday as seas
still recover from a departing storm system.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...SHK

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
327 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

SCZ032-033-039-053-050800-
Inland Horry SC-Marion SC-Williamsburg SC-Florence SC-
327 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

...Strong thunderstorms to affect Johnsonville, Hemingway, Britton
Neck...

At 326 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Henry, or 17 miles east of Kingstree, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Johnsonville, Hemingway, Galivants Ferry, Poston, Nesmith, Brittons
Neck, Indiantown, Gresham, Henry, Kingsburg, Outland, Aynor and
Stuckey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 900 AM EDT for northeastern
South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3366 7966 3414 7946 3403 7916 3378 7932
      3377 7934 3374 7936 3369 7941 3367 7942
      3365 7942 3358 7945
TIME...MOT...LOC 0726Z 204DEG 41KT 3370 7953

TRA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
400 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

NCZ099-SCZ024-033-053-050830-
Columbus NC-Inland Horry SC-Marion SC-Dillon SC-
400 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

...Strong thunderstorms racing across Aynor, Mullins, Nichols,
Fair Bluff early this morning...

At 400 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Gapway, or near Mullins, moving northeast at 60 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mullins, Fair Bluff, Lake View, Boardman, Galivants Ferry, Fork,
Cherry Grove, Gapway, Rains, Smithboro, Kemper, Evergreen, Aynor,
Nichols, Cerro Gordo and Carolinas Hospital System - Marion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 900 AM EDT for southeastern
North Carolina...and northeastern South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3443 7877 3387 7919 3409 7937 3445 7925
      3430 7907 3431 7906 3431 7904 3435 7903
      3436 7900 3438 7901 3440 7897 3443 7897
      3445 7895 3446 7891 3448 7888
TIME...MOT...LOC 0800Z 208DEG 50KT 3412 7923

TRA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
409 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

NCZ105>110-050915-
Inland New Hanover NC-Inland Brunswick NC-Coastal Pender NC-
Inland Pender NC-Coastal New Hanover NC-Coastal Brunswick NC-
409 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NEW HANOVER...PENDER AND
NORTHEASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTIES UNTIL 515 AM EDT...

At 409 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kure Beach, moving north at 50 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wilmington, Leland, Carolina Beach, Burgaw, Wrightsville Beach, Kure
Beach, Surf City, Snows Cut, South Masonboro Island, Figure Eight
Island, Rich Inlet, North Masonboro Island, Hampstead, Topsail Beach,
Penderlea, Hightsville, Long Creek, Cape Fear Community College North
Campus, Wilmington International Airport and Murrayville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 900 AM EDT for southeastern
North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3432 7769 3424 7777 3415 7784 3395 7793
      3396 7802 3473 7807 3472 7792 3459 7762
      3448 7758 3444 7752
TIME...MOT...LOC 0809Z 191DEG 47KT 3402 7790

SHK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
525 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

NCZ106-050945-
Coastal Pender NC-
525 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR  UNTIL 545 AM EDT...

At 525 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Woodside, or near Surf City, moving north at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Surf City and Topsail Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Thunderstorms can pose a variety of threats including gusty winds,
small hail, cloud to ground lightning, and localized flooding. It is
recommended that you remain indoors until the storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 900 AM EDT for southeastern
North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3440 7758 3437 7763 3439 7767 3446 7758
      3447 7757 3447 7756 3446 7754 3444 7752
TIME...MOT...LOC 0925Z 200DEG 17KT 3442 7762

SHK

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