Small Craft Advisory 16, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
246 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Developing low pressure off of Cape Fear early this morning
will move northward along the East Coast today and Wednesday.
Canadian high pressure advancing across the Midwest will push
very cold air into the Carolinas, with hard freezes possible
Wednesday, Thursday and Friday mornings. Thursday morning will
see the coldest temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...Cold air advection is now well underway
across the area with a northwesterly flow. Regional radar loops
continue to show widespread coverage of rain across the
southeast. The area should dissipate from the southwest however
as a trajectory eastward would warrant pops well into the
daytime hours. I did increase pops through the mid morning hours
slightly but overall the trend should be downward. The focus
then shifts to the cold air advection which continues in force
through Wednesday morning. 850mb temperatures drop to minus ten
degrees c. Guidance continues to point to freezing temperatures
most areas for Wednesday morning. Stiff boundary layer winds
will help a little. Will go ahead and issue a freeze warning as
confidence is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...Well-below normal temperatures with
overnight minimums of serious concern to agricultural interests
will be the primary feature of the short term. A cold and dry
arctic high will build in through this period. There will be no
precipitation concerns given the dry airmass. However, an
initially strong surge of CAA followed by decent radiational
cooling conditions will make for sub-freezing temperatures for
both Wednesday and Thursday nights. The coldest night will be
Wednesday night, with widespread readings in the mid 20s with
upper 20s at the beaches. Thursday night will be a bit milder
due to a modifying airmass but widespread readings in the upper
20s will still make for a second night featuring a hard freeze
for most of the CWA. Will likely need to post Freeze Warnings
for both mornings.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...There will be some relief from the recent
string of abnormally cold days and nights during the long term.
However, temperatures will still remain at or below normal
as an Arctic high transitions off the coast and into the
Atlantic. Friday will likely dawn with temperatures well down in
the mid to upper 20s most places. Scattered rain showers are
possible Saturday as a relatively mild cold front moves
offshore. Pre-frontal temperatures will peak in the mid 60s on
Saturday, dropping a few degrees on Sunday and Monday following
FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As OF 00Z...Currently IFR to VLIFR conditions are being reported
across all terminals. Improvement will be slow as there remains
a band or two of light rain to contend with on the back side of
departing low pressure. After this plenty of low level moisture
will linger. Do not expect to improve to MVFR until early
afternoon and VFR well into later Tuesday evening.

Extended outlook...VFR conditions will persist through Friday
as high pressure builds in. Possible MVFR in showers associated
with cold front on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...Winds and seas remain elevated this
morning as cold air advection in the wake of departing low
pressure is underway. Expect northwest winds of 15-20 knots
today with seas remaining well into small craft criteria with
5-8 feet. The cold air advection intensifies tonight and winds
reach 25-30 knots for a time around 0600 UTC. There could
certainly be some gale criteria gusts. Overall the small craft
advisory continues albeit modified a bit to include all areas
through the period.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...Small Craft Advisories will likely be in
effect on Wednesday but conditions will gradually improve as
high pressure moves overhead. Winds will stay NW through the
period but will diminish to only around 10 kts by Thursday
night, with seas of 2 ft or less.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...High pressure overhead will pass east
into the Atlantic as a relatively mild cold front advances upon
the waters. This front will move offshore on Saturday, followed
by high pressure building in from the west on Sunday. The tight
SWly pre-frontal gradient on Saturday may lead to Small Craft
Advisory conditions, but the rest of the long term should remain
free of flags.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Freeze Warning from 5 AM to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for SCZ017-023-
    024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...Freeze Warning from 5 AM to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ087-096-
    099-105>110.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-
252.

&&

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...REK
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...REK/SHK

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