Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
955 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will enter the area and stall through Tuesday night.
Another front will push in from the northwest on Wednesday and
just barely clear the region Thursday. It may return northward
as a warm front Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 955 PM Monday...Several strong storms will translate
across NE SC through evening, interaction with the sea breeze
and outflows cloud sustain storms capable of large, hail. In
Lake City SC hail the size of quarters was reported earlier.
Based of radar data storms over SE NC will likely remain sub-
severe through evening, but may re-generate near the Cape Fear
region after 6z. No watch is planned from SPC based on the
isolated nature of the severe threat. The convection is expected
to push off the coast by around 8z/4AM. Primary threat is large
hail and high wind gusts.

As of 7 PM Monday...Storms will move into our far interior
zones in the middle evening, and currently a watch borders our
zones west of I-95. It would not be surprising to see a new
watch come out soon extended eastward to the coast as an upper
level disturbance sustains convection well past peak heating.
The main threat damaging winds and large hail. Interior NE SC
still showing SFC based CAPES of 2000-3000 J/KG with effective
bulk shear values between 40-60 KT across much of the area.

As of 300 PM Monday...The mid level pattern remains essentially the
same as the past couple of days with a relatively moist
southwest flow between high pressure off the southeast coast and
low pressure meandering about in the Great Lakes region. The
surface pattern isn't much to speak of other than Bermuda High
pressure. These elements will remain in place through
essentially Tuesday, the near term period.

For pops, high resolution and other guidance has been very
consistent in showing thunderstorms developing later this afternoon
and moreso this evening in western North and South Carolina and
eventually consolidating a bit and moving across our area, which
takes up a good deal of the overnight hours. There are some
indications an initial broken line or area of thunderstorms could
just miss our area to the northwest but guidancs shows this area
eventually filling in to the south. I have trended pops upward out
of respect to the consistent guidance. SPC maintains most of the
area in a slight risk highlighting our area for after dark with
strong winds and hail the primary threats.

For Tuesday, similar progression as today with a stable NVA scenario
in the morning hours. Guidance shows a more diffuse pattern of
convection for the afternoon hours and we are still advertising
pops, although the better chances appear to be shaping up for
tonight.

Thermal profiles appear to be unchanged from today for Tuesday, at
least on the 12 UTC guidance and Tuesday may actually be just as
warm as today as we may fall just short of the lower 90s expected
today. Overnight lows, stuffy once again mostly in the 70s with
maybe an upper 60 or two once again assisted by thunderstorm cooled
air.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Frontal boundary stalled right along the coast
Tuesday night. So even as some weak vorticity energy passes overhead
the area should be too stable for anything other than very isolated
showers. And although heading into Wednesday a piedmont trough/weak
front does form west of here most guidance keeps the deep layer
moisture off the coast. This should once again keep minimized the rain
chances over land, the sea breeze being the most likely culprit in
bringing an isolated thunderstorm. Temperatures through the period
will average about 3 degrees above seasonable norms.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...An active weather pattern expected during this
period...mainly after Thursday. Looking at the longwave pattern
aloft...the FA will remain basically under the influence of an upper
trof at the start of this period(Thursday). Models develop split
upper flow across the area by the weekend with west to nw flow from
Canada associated with the longwave trof...and at the same time,
flow from the lower latitudes with some Pacific and Gulf of Mexico
influences. With the mean trof axis remaining just west of the FA,
mid- level s/w trofs from 2 different origins will be able to track
across the FA or in close proximity. Avbl moisture will not be a
problem.

At the sfc, short-lived dry high pressure from the NW will affect
the FA on Thu. There-after, the high anchored well off the SE U.S.
Coast will ridge back to the U.S. with it's axis extending inland
vcnty of GA-FL, well south of the FA. A sfc cold front will drop to
the FA late Fri and likely stalling across a portion of the ILM CWA
during the upcoming weekend and into next week. POPs will be at
their lowest during Thu then ramping up slowly Fri and peaking
during the weekend into next week. Any mid-level s/w trofs ie. upper
disturbances, that affect the FA will likely be the factor that
determines whether severe thunderstorms will occur. I might be
overly optimistic in pushing the stalled front south of the FA by
Mon, given the time of year. Max temperatures will run at or
slightly hier than normal depending on cloud cover and pcpn
occurrence. Min temps will run likely 5+ degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 00Z...Somewhat of a repeat of Sunday's scenario with
mostly VFR conditions expected through the period, although
a possibility of strong thunderstorms developing later this
evening across the western areas and traversing the entire area
slowly west to east overnight, hence the numerous PROB 30 groups
in the TAF's. Convection off the coast before daybreak, with VFR
Tuesday 12z-18z, then isolated convection 18z-00z.

Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in
thunderstorms Tuesday, mainly during evening aft 00z. More
typical scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 955 PM Monday...Expect mostly southwest winds 10-15 knot
range through the period. The speeds will peak once again this
evening but generally be a little lighter than Sunday evening. A
weak surface through will follow expected convection early
Tuesday morning but it appears it doesn't have the push the one
had earlier today to allow a few hours of westerly flow.
Significant seas should stay close to two feet through the
period. Strong storms may approach the near shore waters in the
late evening or just after midnight. The storms will be capable
of pushing wind gusts to 50 KT. Mariners should keep a watch on
radar overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...
Very light SW flow expected Tuesday night as a frontal
boundary stalls along the coastline. This flow regime and minimal
seas will persist into Wednesday and only gradually increase by
about 5 kt heading into later Wednesday and Wednesday night in
response to a piedmont trough developing further inland.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

As of 300 PM Monday...A frontal boundary at the start of Thu will
waver east and south of the local waters before dissipating
altogether. High pressure having dropped in from the NW will
temporarily prevail during Thu with offshore winds backing to the SW
by the end of the day. For Fri thru Sat, the high centered well
offshore from the SE U.S. coast will be the primary driver for winds
across the local waters. With the sfc ridge axis extending west and
inland near the GA-FL coasts, wind directions will primarily be from
the SW. The sfc pg does tighten during Fri into the upcoming weekend
and could see SCEC thresholds being met if this trend continues.
Initially, significant seas will be driven by both a weak NE 8+
second period ground swell and locally produced wind waves. But by
the weekend, 3 to 6 second period wind driven waves will dominate
the seas spectrum per latest Wavewatch3 and Swan model data.
Could see 5 footers during the weekend, with SCEC type conditions.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MBB/8
NEAR TERM...SHK/8
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...8/SGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
337 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056-301945-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-
Inland New Hanover-Coastal New Hanover-Inland Brunswick-
Coastal Brunswick-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-
Williamsburg-Inland Horry-Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-
Coastal Georgetown-
337 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

AMZ250-252-254-256-301945-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
337 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Small craft exercise conditions are possible late Friday into the
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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