Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
638 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

Interesting late afternoon and early evening severe setup, as
surface low over central OK makes slow progress straight east across
nrn OK for the afternoon hours. The main surface synoptic cold front
attached to the low, currently over the eastern half of the Wichita
Metro area, basically along the KS Turnpike. Low level moisture
continues to increase just ahead and to the northeast of the low for
areas east of the KS turnpike and south of Highway 54. MLCAPE values
along the KS/OK border have climbed into the 1000-1500 J/KG range,
with surface dewpoints climbing into the mid 60s. Highest
instability is along the KS/OK border.  As the late afternoon
continues the vigorous shortwave currently over Central Co will move
out into the high plains, with bulk shear increasing across the
plains to 60-65 kts across most of south central KS and southeast
KS. Placement of the warm front and northward progression of the low
level moisture will be critical to placement of severe potential for
the late afternoon and early evening hours.  The combination of the
instability and shear suggests severe producing supercells are
possible for areas east of the KS turnpike into the evening hours.
The main concern will mainly be very large hail and damaging winds,
as 0-1km CAPE in only around 200 j/kg.  But directional shear and
curving hodographs suggests that a tornado or two cannot be ruled
out at least through sunset, primarily along the KS/OK border.

Could also see a few elevated severe storms to the north of
the cold front across portions of central KS given the increasing
steep lapse rates and bulk shear into the evening hours.

Gusty post frontal winds will also increase across much of south
central KS for the evening hours, with some gusts to 45 mph
possible, so will go with a wind advisory this evening for much
central and south central KS as the front pushes SE.

The strong cold front will make its way across most of the
forecast area overnight, with lingering showers expected across
most of central KS into Tue morning as the main cold core
shortwave pushes across central KS by Tue morning. As the front
pushes south, expect to see well below normal temperatures
(ie...chilly temps) push south across the region with high temps
on Tue only in the low 50s.

Cooler than normal temps will be the main story for Tue-Wed as the
cool Canadian surface ridge of high pressure makes its way across
the area.  As the ridge moves over. expect ideal radiational cooling
conditions with light winds and clear skies possibly leading to
areas of frost over portions of central KS by Wed morning as low
temps fall into the middle 30s.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

The chilly temps will be short lived, as warmer temperatures will
quickly return to the region for Thursday-Saturday as southerly
winds push warmer air northward across the central plains.  Medium
range models suggest another shortwave will move across the northern
plains late Fri or Sat with chances of shower and storm chances
returning to the region.  Still some timing differences on when the
shortwave will move across, but both the GFS and ECMWF show another
strong front pushing southeast across the area for late Fri night or
early Sat.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

Front will continue to push southeast over the next few hours
across southeast KS. Anticipate post frontal showers to move in
from the west and persist into the morning at most locations.
MVFR ceilings appear likely later this evening and persisting into
the daylight hours. Thunderstorms probable in the vicinity of
KCNU for a few more hours before a brief dry slot moves across.
-Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    43  53  38  67 /  50  40   0   0
Hutchinson      41  52  36  67 /  50  40   0   0
Newton          41  50  36  65 /  50  50   0   0
ElDorado        43  51  37  66 /  40  50   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   45  54  38  66 /  40  40   0   0
Russell         38  53  36  67 /  80  30   0   0
Great Bend      38  54  36  67 /  80  30   0   0
Salina          41  51  36  66 /  70  50   0   0
McPherson       40  51  35  66 /  50  50   0   0
Coffeyville     51  54  40  66 /  60  40   0   0
Chanute         49  52  40  65 /  80  50   0   0
Iola            49  52  40  65 /  80  50   0   0
Parsons- KPPF   51  53  40  66 /  70  40   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ049>052-067-068-082-
083-091-092.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047-048.

&&

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...PJH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
409 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-102115-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
409 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and early this evening,
mainly for locations east of the Kansas Turnpike. Storms will move
northeast across southeast Kansas. Golf ball or larger size hail,
damaging winds up to 65 mph, and a tornado or two are possible.

The Cow Creek, near Hutchinson, will remain just below flood stage
for tonight.

Strong northerly winds of 25 to 35 mph with higher gusts will
affect portions of central and south central Kansas early this
evening, see latest wind advisory for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The Cow Creek, near is expected to experience minor flooding
Tuesday into Wednesday. Please check the latest flood statement for
details.

Patchy frost is possible in central Kansas early Wednesday morning.

Chances for thunderstorms will exist from Friday night through
Saturday across southern Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed for areas east of the Kansas
Turnpike until 9pm.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Ketcham

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
620 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2017

KSZ099-100-092345-
Montgomery KS-Labette KS-
620 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern Montgomery County in southeastern Kansas...
  Southwestern Labette County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 645 PM CDT

* At 619 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Coffeyville...moving north at
  30 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Coffeyville, Independence, Dearing, Mound Valley, Liberty, Angola
  and Coffeyville Airport.

LAT...LON 3700 9551 3700 9572 3723 9570 3722 9536
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 191DEG 25KT 3704 9561

DARMOFAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
652 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2017

KSZ095-096-099-100-100015-
Montgomery KS-Wilson KS-Labette KS-Neosho KS-
652 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northern Montgomery County in southeastern Kansas...
  Eastern Wilson County in southeastern Kansas...
  Labette County in southeastern Kansas...
  Neosho County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 715 PM CDT

* At 649 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Cherryvale...moving north at
  40 mph. Other strong storms were scattered across Montgomery and
  Labette counties...moving north to northeast at 35 to 40 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with the stronger storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Parsons, Independence, Chanute, Neodesha, Fredonia, Cherryvale,
  Oswego, Erie, Chetopa, Altamont, St. Paul, Thayer, Altoona, Mound
  Valley, Elk City, Buffalo, Galesburg, Liberty, Bolton and Sycamore.

LAT...LON 3721 9597 3773 9569 3773 9509 3700 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 198DEG 33KT 3730 9546

DARMOFAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
756 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2017

KSZ099-100-100130-
Montgomery KS-Labette KS-
756 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern Montgomery County in southeastern Kansas...
  Southwestern Labette County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 830 PM CDT

* At 754 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Wann, or 9 miles southwest of
  Coffeyville...moving northeast at 25 mph.

wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail will be possible with this
storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Coffeyville, Dearing, Coffeyville Airport and Angola.

LAT...LON 3713 9568 3713 9537 3700 9546 3700 9575
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 226DEG 24KT 3692 9573

DARMOFAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
759 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2017

KSZ094-098-100130-
Chautauqua KS-Elk KS-
759 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northeastern Chautauqua County in southeastern Kansas...
  Southeastern Elk County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 830 PM CDT

* At 757 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 7 miles south of Longton, or 11
  miles northeast of Sedan...moving northeast at 35 mph.

wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail will be possible with this
storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Longton and Elk Falls.

LAT...LON 3725 9622 3746 9617 3745 9596 3737 9596
      3724 9602
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 202DEG 30KT 3727 9611

DARMOFAL