Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1241 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a strong upper level
wave over Nevada/Utah which will move eastward out into the
central plains by this afternoon. Surface low pressure will deepen
over central Oklahoma with strong northerly winds increasing over
central Kansas. We will hoist a wind advisory as surface pressure
gradient becomes quite strong over central Kansas this afternoon.

Otherwise the main focus for today will focus on possible severe
weather for locations along and east of the Kansas turnpike during
the afternoon/evening hours. The key will be how far north the
richer low-level moisture can make it during the next 12-18hrs.
Upper forcing will be quite strong with this system and would
expect storms to begin developing sometime during the 2-4pm time
frame over south central Kansas, with coverage increasing and
spreading eastward into southeast Kansas thereafter.
Shear/instability is favorable for large hail/damaging winds,
however if associated warm front low-level moisture can work its
way into southern Kansas like some of the short range models are
suggesting. This could create favorable conditions for a few
tornadoes to occur, especially if we see increases in the low-
level wind fields/0-3km CAPE values.

The upper level wave will shift eastward on Tuesday with some
lingering rain showers in the morning across central/eastern
Kansas, however clouds and cold air behind this system will keep
daytime highs chilly and well below normal. Meanwhile ideal
radiational cooling from surface high pressure sitting over the
area Tuesday night could give way to some patchy light frost early
Wednesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

Warmer above normal temperatures will quickly return to the
region for Thursday-Saturday as southerly winds push warmer air
northward across the central plains. GFS/ECMWF models both show a
healthy upper trough moving across the northern plains for next
weekend, with chances of rain returning to the region but they
differ on timing/placement. We should see another noticeable cool
down as a strong cold front moves southward for Saturday night
into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

A strong cold front will continue to slice southeast across the
region this afternoon and tonight. Behind the front, strong north
winds and MVFR ceiling are expected. Ahead of the front, scattered
thunderstorms will prevail over southeast Kansas after 3 pm, some
of which may be severe. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will expand across much of the area this evening and
overnight, as a strong upper disturbance approaches from the west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    73  44  53  39 /  50  70  40   0
Hutchinson      64  42  52  36 /  40  70  40   0
Newton          68  42  50  38 /  50  80  50   0
ElDorado        73  44  52  38 /  70  80  50   0
Winfield-KWLD   79  46  54  39 /  60  60  40   0
Russell         55  39  53  36 /  50  70  30   0
Great Bend      55  39  53  36 /  50  70  30   0
Salina          59  42  52  37 /  50  80  50   0
McPherson       62  41  51  37 /  50  80  50   0
Coffeyville     84  52  55  41 /  60  80  40  10
Chanute         83  50  53  41 /  50  90  50  10
Iola            82  50  53  41 /  50  80  50  10
Parsons-KPPF    84  52  55  42 /  50  80  40  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047-048-
050.

&&

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...ADK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
521 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-101030-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
521 AM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe storms will be possible for this afternoon and evening,
mainly for locations along and east of the Kansas turnpike. Storms
are expected to develop after 2 pm near I-35 and will move northeast
across southeast Kansas. Golf ball or larger size hail, damaging
winds up to 65 mph, and a few tornadoes are possible.

The Cow Creek, near and north of Hutchinson, will remain just below
flood stage for today and tonight.

Strong northerly winds of 25 to 35 mph with higher gusts will
affect portions of central Kansas this afternoon, see latest wind
advisory for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The Cow Creek, near and north of Hutchinson, is expected to
experience minor flooding Tuesday into Wednesday. Please check the
latest flood statement for details.

Patchy frost is possible in north-central Kansas early Wednesday
morning.

Chances for thunderstorms will exist from Friday night through
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Jakub

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
208 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2017

KSZ095-099-091945-
Montgomery KS-Wilson KS-
208 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  North central Montgomery County in southeastern Kansas...
  Southeastern Wilson County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 245 PM CDT

* At 205 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Neodesha...moving north at 25
  mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Neodesha, Altoona and Sycamore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3730 9562 3732 9578 3758 9577 3756 9553
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 191DEG 23KT 3737 9570

KLEINSASSER