Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
651 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

Tonight:
Highlight:
Flash flooding potential remains high for all of Southeast KS til
early Sun Morning.

This afternoon, a nearly stationary front curved sharply from the
Western OK Panhandle, to just N of KRSL, to between KICT & KEGT,
then across far Northeast OK. A SHARP SW-NE temperature gradient
exists along the front. While mid-afternoon temperatures in most
of KICT Country range from the lower 80s in Central & most of
South-Central KS to the upper 70s along the northeast corridor,
Harper, Kingman & Sumner counties have sky-rocketed to near 100.
The front will be a major factor in all facets of the forecast
tonight as thunderstorms will redevelop along the boundary as it
begins to lift NE (obviously as a warm front) as a weak mid-level
trof moves E from Southwest KS & Northwest OK. The warm front may
reach as far as I-70 late tonight. The airmass SW of the front is
destabilizing quickly. As such the redeveloping thunderstorms will
spread NE across most of the CWA later tonight. With the mid-level
trof scheduled to reach Northeast OK early Sun morning, the front
would pivot counter-clockwise and with the western segment pushing
SE (obviously as a cold front), thunderstorms would become most
concentrated across East & Southeast KS. The destabilizing airmass
coupled with the increased directional shear induced by the
approaching front spells the potential for severe thunderstorms in
most areas, especially this evening. With precipitable waters ~2
inches over Southeast KS, torrential rains are guaranteed across
Southeast KS as tonight progresses. WPC has kept a "Moderate Risk"
for excessive rainfall across Southeast KS & this definitely makes
sense. The inherited Flash Flood Watch has been extended W to Elk
& Chautauqua Counties. Watch duration is unchanged.

Sun & Sun Night:
With the SE-pushing cold front likely vacating Southeast KS Sunday
Night thunderstorms will decrease in a NW-SE manner. Highest PoPs
remain assigned to Southeast KS but again will decrease, most
notably Sun Afternoon.

Mon-Tue Night:
With a large surface high spreading E/SE from the Northern Plains
to the Great Lakes much cooler-than-normal weather will dominate.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

Scattered thunderstorms remain in the forecast for most periods as
isentropic ascent, though fairly weak in most cases dominates. Mid
to upper support is lacking so most thunderstorms should behave.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

Numerous +TSRA of which several are severe with hail as large as
golfballs & winds around 70 mph continue to move E across South-
Central KS this eve. The (+)TSRA will continue to spread E across
SE KS, reaching KCNU ~02Z. +TSRA will reduce vsbys to 2-3SM &
cause winds to be variable ~30 kts sustained with gusts ~45 kts.
These TSRA will continue across primarily Southern KS throughout
the night & in SE KS Sun Morning. TSRA will gradually end in a NW
to SE manner Sun morning as a SE-movg cold front ventures into SE
KS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  83  66  81 /  50  20  10  10
Hutchinson      67  81  63  80 /  50  10  10  10
Newton          66  80  63  79 /  50  20  10  10
ElDorado        68  82  64  79 /  60  30  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   70  86  66  83 /  70  30  20  10
Russell         64  81  62  78 /  30  10  10  20
Great Bend      65  81  62  78 /  40  10  10  20
Salina          66  81  63  80 /  50  10  10  10
McPherson       65  81  62  79 /  50  10  10  10
Coffeyville     71  84  67  82 /  90  60  40  20
Chanute         69  82  65  80 /  90  60  20  10
Iola            69  81  64  79 /  90  60  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    70  83  66  81 /  90  60  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ053-070>072-
094>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...EPS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
740 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-070045-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
740 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central, South
Central and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms that may produce hail around the size of ping
pong balls, 60 to 70 mph winds and torrential rains are likely in
most areas. For further details, please refer to Severe Thunderstorm
Watch number 440, which is in effect for all of South-Central Kansas
until 11 PM CDT, Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 441, which is in
effect for much of Southeast Kansas until 2 AM CDT, and the Flash
Flood Watch, which is in effect until 7 AM CDT Sunday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Scattered thunderstorms are possible for primarily Southeast Kansas
on Sunday and along the Oklahoma border Sunday Night. Thunderstorms
that occur in far Southeast Kansas may produce some small hail and
40 to 50 mph winds.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible for most periods from Tuesday
through Friday. The thunderstorms should be neither strong nor
severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
806 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW ARKANSAS CITY      37.11N 97.09W
08/05/2017                   COWLEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            13 POWER POLES SNAPPED NORTHWEST OF ARK CITY

&&

MWM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
810 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW ARKANSAS CITY      37.11N 97.09W
08/05/2017                   COWLEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            25 POWER POLES SNAPPED NORTHWEST OF ARK CITY

&&

MWM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
816 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

KSZ092-060145-
Sumner KS-
816 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern Sumner County in south central Kansas...

* Until 845 PM CDT

* At 814 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over South Haven, or 11 miles east
  of Caldwell...moving east at 30 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 55 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  South Haven, Geuda Springs, Hunnewell and Perth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3700 9756 3724 9752 3724 9715 3700 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 283DEG 27KT 3708 9742

LAWSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
820 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 ESE ARKANSAS CITY     37.04N 96.94W
08/05/2017  E70 MPH          COWLEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ESTIMATED WIND 1 W OF SILVERDALE.

&&

METZGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
847 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W ARKANSAS CITY       37.07N 97.08W
08/05/2017  E60 MPH          COWLEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

METZGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
847 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

KSZ092-093-060215-
Cowley KS-Sumner KS-
847 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southwestern Cowley County in south central Kansas...
  Southeastern Sumner County in south central Kansas...

* Until 915 PM CDT

* At 844 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
  Oxford to 8 miles northeast of Braman...and moving east at 30 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 55 mph will be
possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Arkansas City, Winfield, Geuda Springs and Strother Field Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3723 9686 3700 9691 3700 9722 3723 9717
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 276DEG 26KT 3721 9714 3700 9722

LAWSON