Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
315 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017

A cold front will continue to push slowly southward through the
remainder of far southern Kansas through this evening, while a
weaker shortwave moves from eastern Colorado into Oklahoma. Weak
frontal convergence and MLCAPE of ~1500 j/kg will support isolated
to scattered thunderstorms in the far southeast into this
evening. Other scattered showers/isolated thunder may affect
central/southwest Kansas into this evening in association with the
weak shortwave.

Drier and cooler weather is slated for Friday as surface high
pressure builds over the area.

The next upper trough, visible this afternoon on GOES-16 water vapor
imagery (6.95 um) over British Columbia/Alberta, will slide
southeastward over the northern/central Plains from Friday night
through Sunday night. The upper trough is progged to come out in
several pieces of energy in the northwesterly flow aloft. Southerly
return flow ahead of this system, will allow a warm front to lift
north into Kansas Friday night into Saturday. Moderate-strong
moisture transport/isentropic lift and elevated instability should
allow for clusters of thunderstorms to develop across
central/eastern Kansas Friday night into Saturday. The 12z NAM-WRF,
Canadian, and ECMWF lift the warm front furthest northeast into
northeast Kansas by Saturday afternoon, while the GFS lingers the
front back across central Kansas. Widespread convection is progged
to continue north of the warm front during the day Saturday, which
may act to impede the northeast progression of the boundary.
Therefore, not ruling out the GFS being correct and the forecast
represents a blend of the GFS and the ECMWF,NAM, and Canadian
solutions. Thunderstorms appear most likely east of I-135 during the
day Saturday with chances tapering west of the Interstate. With
MUCAPES of 2,000-3,000 j/kg and deep-layer shear of 35-45 knots, a
few strong to severe storms are plausible. The low-level jet re-
intensifies Saturday night into eastern Kansas, with moderate to
strong moisture transport, combined with some upper level support.
Fairly widespread thunderstorms will remain likely across eastern
Kansas Saturday night into Sunday. With precipitable water progged
to be near the 90th percentile, locally heavy rainfall and localized
flooding will be possible where convection is most widespread and
sustained from Saturday into Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017

The medium range models continue in good agreement with the upper
level pattern, depicting mean upper troughing from eastern Canada,
southwestward into the midwest. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate
negative temperature anomalies across the northern/central Plains.
Therefore, confidence is high in temperatures remaining cooler than
seasonal averages. A trend toward drier weather is expected early
next week, with chances for showers/thunderstorms returning toward
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period.
Widely scattered convection is possible this afternoon along a
cold front as it moves south across southeast Kansas. If so, these
storms are expected to develop just south of the terminals. North
winds behind the front will gradually veer to an easterly
component tonight into Saturday morning.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    61  81  65  87 /  20  10  40  50
Hutchinson      58  81  63  88 /  20  10  50  40
Newton          59  79  62  84 /  20  10  50  50
ElDorado        60  79  62  83 /  20  10  50  50
Winfield-KWLD   62  82  65  87 /  30  10  40  50
Russell         56  81  63  89 /  10  10  40  40
Great Bend      58  82  64  91 /  10  10  40  30
Salina          57  82  63  86 /  10  10  60  60
McPherson       57  81  62  86 /  10  10  60  50
Coffeyville     62  81  62  84 /  40  10  40  50
Chanute         60  79  62  82 /  30   0  40  60
Iola            60  78  61  80 /  30   0  40  60
Parsons-KPPF    62  80  63  83 /  40  10  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...KED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1143 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-041645-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1143 AM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight,
mainly across southern Kansas, as a cold front moves through the
region. The risk for severe weather appears low however, a few
strong storms will be possible with gusty winds and small hail,
especially for southeast Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms could develop across central Kansas for late Friday
night with a few strong storms possible. Thunderstorms are likely
for much of the area this weekend, as another weather system moves
into the region. A few strong to marginally severe storms will be
possible Saturday into Saturday night, along with locally heavy
rainfall. Thunderstorms could linger across southern Kansas for
Sunday morning. Otherwise next chance of thunderstorms will be on
Wednesday for central and southern Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
301 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     TSTM WND GST     ERIE                    37.57N 95.24W
08/03/2017  E60 MPH          NEOSHO             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
314 PM CDT THU AUG 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     TSTM WND GST     ERIE                    37.57N 95.24W
08/03/2017  E60 MPH          NEOSHO             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KED

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
330 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2017

KSZ095-096-098>100-032100-
Montgomery KS-Wilson KS-Labette KS-Chautauqua KS-Neosho KS-
330 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Montgomery County in southeastern Kansas...
  Southeastern Wilson County in southeastern Kansas...
  Labette County in southeastern Kansas...
  Eastern Chautauqua County in southeastern Kansas...
  Southern Neosho County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 400 PM CDT

* At 328 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms scattered along a line extending
  from Erie to 7 miles north of Peru...and moving southeast at 30
  mph.

wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms along
with brief heavy rainfall.

* Locations impacted include...
  Parsons, Coffeyville, Independence, Cherryvale, Caney, Oswego,
  Erie, Sedan, Altamont, St. Paul, Dearing, Mound Valley, Elk City,
  Tyro, Peru, Galesburg, Liberty, Chautauqua, Havana and Bolton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3719 9621 3763 9509 3717 9508 3700 9585
      3700 9618
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 307DEG 27KT 3755 9523 3718 9606

DARMOFAL