Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
701 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 658 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Heat Advisory was allowed to expire. Decreasing temperatures as
the sun goes down will also result diminishing heat indices. Thus
the heat product is no longer needed. Additionally the focus for
this evening is going to be on the current Severe Thunderstorm
Watch and any potential warnings.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

This afternoon and tonight...

The main question remains the timing and location of the
development of thunderstorm activity. The current run of the
models continue to show a strong cap in place early this afternoon
which will delay the onset of convection until later. Most of the
short range models are starting to come to a consensus for
developing convection after 3 PM this afternoon in northeast
Kansas then move south in to the CWA by the evening. This
convection will be driven by strong forcing of a cold front coming
through from the north along with some very good moisture
transport. There is a concern that an outflow boundary from some
convection Oklahoma will provide some extra forcing in Southern
Kansas near sunset. Models are indicating some very good moisture
transport with this boundary as well. This indicates the two
boundaries will likely collide in Southern Kansas after seven
tonight which could significant enhance the convection for a time
increasing the intensity of the convection. All models are
indicating a good chance for severe weather today with large hail
and high winds being the primary threats. Very heavy rain is also
possible, especially in Southern Kansas.

Sunday through Tuesday...

Northwest flow will take over Sunday morning and cooler and drier
air will push into the region. Temperatures will stay much closer
to normal for Sunday and Monday. Winds will shift back around to
the south Monday afternoon. The southerly flow will allow the
temperatures to warm back up above normal and moisture transport
will again resume into the region. This time however, the humidity
level will not be as high as today.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Wednesday looks to be the next day in which there will be decent
chance for precipitation. Moisture transport into the region looks
good as is instability but, the best instability and moisture is
a little far to the north. Forcing in the CWA is mediocre at
best. As such, do not see severe weather at this time but a more
moderate to strong thunderstorm activity for Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Another frontal system will begins to move through
the region on Thursday night which brings another chance for some
shower and thunderstorm activity. Moisture and shear do not look
as good but there appears to be enough instability and forcing to
allow form scattered strong storms. Can't rule out the possibility
for some severe weather either. Most of this activity is expected
in the Northern portions of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

The challenge and concern for this TAF period is the convection
that will impact almost every site in the first 6 hours. Current
development along a frontal boundary has begun from northeast to
southwest Kansas cutting in between KSLN and KHUT. Threats for
these storms will include damaging winds and isolated large hail
as well as locally heavy rain as expected with thunderstorms. Current
forecast indicates approximate timing but updates will be likely
including diminishing the longevity of the tempo groups. The
stronger activity is still expected to push south into Oklahoma by
5 to 6Z depending on the model of choice. Lingering showers and
thunderstorms will be present through ~10Z but KCNU will have
lingering activity past 12Z. A clearing trend is anticipated
following the exit of the activity with northerly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    67  83  62  86 /  60  10   0   0
Hutchinson      65  83  60  86 /  50  10   0   0
Newton          65  81  61  84 /  60  10   0   0
ElDorado        65  81  60  84 /  70  20   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   68  83  61  86 /  50  10   0   0
Russell         61  82  59  87 /  40   0   0  10
Great Bend      63  82  59  87 /  40   0   0  10
Salina          64  83  60  87 /  50  10   0   0
McPherson       64  82  59  86 /  50  10   0   0
Coffeyville     70  83  60  86 /  60  40   0   0
Chanute         68  82  60  85 /  70  30   0   0
Iola            67  82  59  85 /  70  30   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    69  82  60  85 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

UPDATE...VJP
SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...VJP

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