Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
714 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

There is a high likelyhood of severe weather this afternoon and
evening over much of the CWA. Strong moisture transport, high CAPE
(4500+) and strong shear (35 to 45kts bulk shear) will provide a
nearly ideal set up for severe weather this afternoon and into the
early evening. Very large hail and high winds (70-80mph) will be
likely with the strongest storms. This activity is expected wane
after sunset. Conditions will still be favorable for some
scattered showers and thunderstorms but most of the activity is
expected to end by morning. The main threat during the late
evening and overnight hours will be high winds.  Friday will be
mostly sunny and conditions will not be as conducive to
thunderstorm activity. This will make mid to upper 90s easy for
afternoon highs.

Saturday there will be a strong cap in place which will prevent
any thunderstorm activity from starting during the afternoon. Full
sun, light winds and high 850mb temperatures will make for a hot
day as many areas are likely to reach the century mark. Moisture
transport from the south will still be rather good making for a
humid day as well. This will drive heat indices into the 104 to
107 range for some areas of Southeast Kansas. While there is
plenty of moisture and shear available for thunderstorm activity
Saturday, there will be strong cap in place that will need some
significant forcing to start off thunderstorm activity despite
high CAPE and DCAPE in the region. the needed forcing will be
provided by an approaching frontal system. This front will be
coming through the CWA during the evening and overnight hours
Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms, some of which are likely to
be severe, with the main threats being high winds and very heavy
rain. Sunday the flow will switch to the northwest and
temperatures will come back down to normal.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

The extended range will be characterized by temperatures warming
back up to well above normal levels. However, it does appear the
next week will be rather active. Once the general flow shifts back
around to the south, moisture transport will return to the
region. Shear levels will increase and will provide a good
environment for more shower and thunderstorm activity Tuesday
night and Thursday as well. Current setup indicates there is some
severe storm potential with activity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

Ongoing thunderstorms are producing strong wind gusts. Wind gusts
near the 50kts threshold were reported as the storms went through
KGBD. This led to the challenge in the first part of the forecast
with the approximate timing of these gusts and storms for KICT
and KCNU. The previous forecast issuance has been pretty much on
target for the near term with the storms taking a southeast track.
Activity should be out of the area by 6z. Afterwards there will
be slight changes in the wind speed and direction as well as
diminishing VFR cloud cover.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  95  74  99 /  60  10  20   0
Hutchinson      68  95  72  99 /  70  10  10  10
Newton          69  94  73  97 /  70  10  20  10
ElDorado        69  92  73  96 /  70  10  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   70  94  74  98 /  60  10  20   0
Russell         67  97  69  99 /  40  20  10  10
Great Bend      67  97  70  99 /  40  10  10  10
Salina          69  97  73 100 /  80  20  20  10
McPherson       68  96  72 100 /  80  10  20  10
Coffeyville     71  92  74  95 /  60  10  20   0
Chanute         70  91  73  95 /  70  10  30   0
Iola            69  91  73  95 /  60  10  30  10
Parsons-KPPF    71  91  74  95 /  70  10  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...VJP

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