Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
653 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

An upper low over Montana this afternoon will lift northeastward
across the northern Plains tonight into Wednesday. The trailing
end of the upper trough axis will move eastward across Kansas
tonight into Wednesday morning. Low-level winds will back in the
warm sector, with increased convergence along the dryline
extending from central Kansas to the Texas Panhandle late this
afternoon and evening, despite the dryline retreating slightly
westward this evening. Weakening inhibition, combined with lift
from the approaching upper trough and dryline convergence, should
allow fairly isolated storms to develop near the western fringes
of the forecast area by early this evening. A small cluster or two
may evolve overnight, aided by upper-level diffluent flow and a
strengthened low-level jet. Not expected widespread storm
coverage. Any isolated storms early on could be supercells given
very strong instability and moderately strong shear. A few reports
of large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible, with fairly
high LCL's.

As the upper low lifts into Canada on Wednesday, the trailing
frontal boundary is progged to stretch from northeast Kansas to
south-central Kansas, to northwest Oklahoma. Strong insolation and
rich Gulf moisture along/south of the front will lead to very
strong to extreme diurnal instability, with cap strength weakening
from northeast to southwest along the front in the afternoon.
Weak frontal convergence with some increased diffluent upper flow
may allow a cluster or two of storms to initiate southwestward
along the front in the pm/eve hours. Primarily, a multicell storm
mode seems favored with localized severe winds/hail possible.

Moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft is indicated Thursday into
Friday, with a lingering frontal/outflow/dryline intersection in the
Kansas region. Rich, Gulf moisture/instability will persist in the
warm sector with above normal temperatures, and continued periodic
chances for strong-severe storms over central/eastern Kansas.
Heat indices of 100-104 degrees are possible both afternoons.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

The GFS and ECMWF continue to indicate a shortwave trough
amplifying as it moves across the northern Plains/Upper
Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes over the upcoming weekend.
This pushes a cold front southward through the forecast area
Saturday night, with an accompanying chance of thunderstorms. A
return to more seasonal temperatures is indicated behind the front
from Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

Primary aviation concern will be thunderstorm chances and
coverage this evening and overnight. Thinking highest chances this
evening will affect portions of central and north-central Kansas
(including Russell and Great Bend), as widely scattered
thunderstorms form in the vicinity of a retreating dryline, with
chances increasing further east and southeast after 10-11pm
(including Salina, Wichita and Hutchinson), as a shortwave
currently across the central/southern Rockies approaches from the
west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    73  93  71  96 /  30  20  20  20
Hutchinson      71  93  68  97 /  30  10  10  20
Newton          71  92  70  95 /  30  20  10  30
ElDorado        72  92  70  94 /  20  30  30  20
Winfield-KWLD   74  93  71  95 /  20  30  30  20
Russell         68  92  65  97 /  30   0   0  30
Great Bend      68  92  65  98 /  30   0   0  20
Salina          72  94  68  97 /  30  10  10  40
McPherson       71  93  68  97 /  30  10  10  30
Coffeyville     75  89  71  92 /  10  20  30  20
Chanute         74  88  71  92 /  20  30  40  20
Iola            74  88  70  93 /  20  40  40  20
Parsons-KPPF    75  89  71  92 /  10  30  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ADK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
754 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-150100-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
754 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will affect portions of
central and south-central Kansas this evening, mainly west of a line
extending from Salina to Hutchinson to Kingman. The strongest
activity will be capable of golfball size hail and 65 mph winds.
Additional thunderstorm activity could venture as far east as the
Flint Hills overnight, with a few strong to marginally severe storms
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening,
generally along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike. Hail up to
golf ball size and damaging downburst winds will be the main
threats.

Scattered storm chances remain in the forecast Thursday through
Saturday night. Any storms that develop during this time will have a
good chance to become severe, with large hail and damaging winds
the main threats.

Heat indices of 100 to 104 are expected across much of the area
during the afternoon and early evening Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A few storm spotters may be needed this evening, generally west of a
line extending from Salina to Hutchinson to Kingman.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
829 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

KSZ050-140200-
Rice KS-
829 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Eastern Rice County in central Kansas...

* Until 900 PM CDT

* At 827 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Sterling...moving northeast at
  65 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Lyons, Sterling, Little River and Alden.

LAT...LON 3852 9808 3852 9792 3830 9792 3817 9808
      3817 9841
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 223DEG 57KT 3815 9827

HOWERTON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
835 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

KSZ032-047-140200-
Russell KS-Barton KS-
835 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southwestern Russell County in central Kansas...
  Northwestern Barton County in central Kansas...

* Until 900 PM CDT

* At 832 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Otis...moving northeast at 50
  mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Gorham, Albert, Olmitz, Milberger, Galatia and Susank.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3889 9904 3870 9865 3854 9882 3843 9903
      3870 9903 3870 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0134Z 220DEG 42KT 3855 9909

HOWERTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
937 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND GST     RUSSELL AIRPORT         38.87N 98.82W
06/13/2017  M56.00 MPH       RUSSELL            KS   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

BDK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
946 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N SYLVAN GROVE        39.03N 98.39W
06/13/2017  E60.00 MPH       LINCOLN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            JUST NORTH OF SYLVAN GROVE ON K-14.

&&

BDK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
947 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

KSZ033-140330-
Lincoln KS-
947 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Lincoln County in central Kansas...

* Until 1030 PM CDT

* At 942 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking dissipating storms across northern Ellsworth County.
  Strong winds were occurring well away from any thunderstorms.

wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible across Lincoln county.

* Locations impacted include...
  Lincoln, Sylvan Grove, Beverly, Barnard, Westfall, Ash Grove,
  Wilson State Park and Wilson Lake.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3887 9793 3888 9849 3921 9849 3922 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 221DEG 43KT 3913 9819

HOWERTON