Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
624 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Water vapor imagery shows shortwave energy digging over the
southern Rockies and will be moving out over the central/southern
high Plains late this afternoon/early this evening. Strong cold
front currently stretches along the Kansas Turnpike and will
continue tracking southeast.

Storms are expected to develop along the front as it moves east of
the Turnpike. We currently remain capped over se KS and will
likely take strong convergence along the front to get storms to
pop. Still thinking that after 4pm and likely closer to 5-6pm
should the most likely time for initiation. Should be plenty of
instability and effective shear for severe storms with large hail
and damaging winds the main threats. Majority of convection
should be southeast of the forecast area by midnight with some
additional showers also possible further west over the remainder
of central and south central KS.

By 12z Wed, cold front will extend through the Ozark region with
only far SE KS still having a chance for a few storms with this
chance east of the area by early Wed afternoon. The bigger story
Wed will be much cooler temps with highs expected to be 10-15
degrees below normal with gusty nw winds. Will maintain some
patchy frost over central KS late Wed night into early Thu morning
as lows fall into the mid 30s.

Pattern will remain very active as yet another piece of energy
moves out of the central Rockies and into the Plains by Thu
afternoon. This will increase rain chances from west to east Thu
afternoon into Thu evening with much of the area at least getting
some light rain. Best chances for rain on Fri will be generally
along and north of I-70...closer to the better upper dynamics.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

More robust shortwave is expected to dig over the southern high
Plains Fri night into Sat morning. 850-700mb moisture transport
will ramp up with an extremely moist airmass over the southern
Plains. PW values will be approaching 2 inches across eastern OK
into the Ozark region where heavy rain and flooding will be the
main threat. Some of this may skirt far SE KS, but it appears the
bigger impacts will be east and south of our forecast area Fri
night through Sat night. Sunday, central and eastern KS will be
in the cold wrap around precip area of the departing system with
well below normal temps anticipated for Sun-Sun night. Should
finally see more seasonal temps by Mon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

A cold front stretched from the Flint Hills, southwestward to
central Oklahoma early this evening. Expecting linear bands of
strong-severe storms to develop along the front this evening, as
the boundary pushes slowly southeastward. This activity will
threaten the CNU terminal with potential strong-severe wind gusts
and hail. Scattered post-frontal showers are expected in
central/south-central Kansas tonight, with a few showers lingering
in southeast Kansas Wednesday. MVFR ceilings are progged to
develop southward into the region tonight in a cold air advection
pattern. At least a small period of IFR appears likely at CNU
during the early morning hours. Subsidence should allow for
clearing in central/south-central Kansas Wednesday, with stratus
lingering in the southeast for most or all of the day. Gusty
northerly winds can be expected behind the front tonight into
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    43  57  39  61 /  40  20  10  30
Hutchinson      41  56  37  60 /  40  20  10  30
Newton          42  55  37  59 /  40  20  10  30
ElDorado        43  55  38  60 /  50  30  10  30
Winfield-KWLD   45  55  39  63 /  40  30  10  20
Russell         37  56  35  58 /  30  10   0  40
Great Bend      37  58  36  59 /  30  10   0  30
Salina          40  55  36  59 /  30  20  10  40
McPherson       40  56  36  59 /  40  20  10  30
Coffeyville     51  56  39  64 /  70  60  30  10
Chanute         49  54  39  62 /  70  50  30  20
Iola            48  53  38  62 /  70  50  30  20
Parsons-KPPF    50  55  39  63 /  70  50  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...JMC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
352 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-261015-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
352 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central, South
Central and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms that may produce hail as large as ping pong
balls and 60 to 70 mph winds are possible across Southeast Kansas
this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few thunderstorms may continue in Southeast Kansas Wednesday
morning but are not expected to be strong or severe.

Patchy frost will be possible over parts of central Kansas late
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.

There'll be several periods of thunderstorms from Thursday afternoon
onward. Although, widespread strong or severe storms are not
expected, heavy rain and potential flooding will be possible over
southeast Kansas Friday night through Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight, but we would
appreciate any severe weather reports over southeast Kansas.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Lawson

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