Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
302 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Latest trends in the RAP/HRRR continue to support the forecast
thesis of low-topped, strong to severe convection potential late
this afternoon/early evening across south central/southeast
Kansas. The NAM/RAP may also have the right idea in backing the
surface flow and advecting higher surface dew points a bit further
west across parts of south central Kansas between 21-00z. This
supports SBCAPE values of 1200-1500 j/kg with low level (0-3km)
CAPE values over 225 j/kg. So all facets of severe weather will
remain possible in the potential cold-core setup as the near
northeast quad of the upper low affects the area through early
this evening. Scattered to numerous showers can be expected
tonight into Saturday morning within the back edge of the
deformation zone and wrap-around precip to the north and northwest
of the eastward migrating upper low. Its rather slow northeast
departure across Missouri through Saturday supports holding on to
low to modest PoPs across southeast Kansas through much of the
day. After a brief respite late Saturday into early Sunday, the
next upper trof will move into the area late Sunday through early
Monday. The modest moisture return will be sufficient given the
progged transient lift across the area for scattered showers and a
few storms over southern Kansas. After some morning precip
chances Monday, dry weather is expected in the afternoon.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Another upper trof will dig south across California
early next week and into a closed low across the southwest CONUS.
This system still looks to move east across the central and
southern Plains by mid-week, providing the area with more precip
chances.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Main aviation concern will be storms this afternoon and lowering
ceilings tonight.

Storms are expected to develop in the next couple of hours
just east of I-135 and am currently going with the thinking they
will be just east of KICT. So as far as daytime convection, feel
KCNU will have the best chance generally after 20z. Cold front
will surge through the area as the powerful upper low tracks east.
This will flip winds around to the north and also usher-in some
MVFR ceilings. This front should move through KRSL by 23z and KICT
after 00z. Confidence is high in widespread MVFR ceilings, and
some IFR can't be ruled out, especially west of I-135 tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will affect much of the
area this evening into the overnight hours before ending early on
Saturday. Gusty winds this evening ahead of and behind a cold
front will keep grassland fire danger very high in rain-free
areas. Fire danger is expected to be only moderate to high the
next several days with a good chance for showers again late
Sunday into early Monday. These rains should provide decent
green-up across the area as we head into next week.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    46  59  42  72 /  60  20   0  30
Hutchinson      44  58  40  70 /  50  10   0  30
Newton          44  56  41  69 /  60  20   0  30
ElDorado        46  57  42  71 /  70  30   0  30
Winfield-KWLD   47  61  42  74 /  60  20   0  30
Russell         40  58  38  66 /  30  10   0  30
Great Bend      40  60  38  66 /  30   0   0  30
Salina          44  57  40  67 /  60  20   0  20
McPherson       44  56  39  69 /  50  20   0  30
Coffeyville     50  60  44  74 /  60  50   0  30
Chanute         49  58  43  72 /  70  60  10  20
Iola            49  57  43  71 /  70  60  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    50  59  44  73 /  60  60  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for KSZ067>070-082-
083-091>094-098.

&&

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...KED

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