Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
527 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 301 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

The cap was currently being breach across eastern Nebraska which was
in closer proximity to the upper PV wave/cooler air aloft. Storms
will eventually develop southward into eastern Kansas later this
afternoon/evening once the cooler air aloft moves over the
unstable low-level airmass. Storm initiation for our area looks to
be east the Kansas turnpike which will quickly race eastward.
There is a small window for a few tornadoes over southeast Kansas
if a storm can remain discrete. Otherwise we are expecting the
storms to quickly evolve into a line of storms as the cold front
over takes the initiating surface trough axis. Once this happens
the risk will be mainly damaging winds and large hail.

On Tuesday, deep mixing will give way to dry adiabatic lapses rates
in the 1000-850mb layer and allow stronger northwest winds aloft to
mix down to the surface in the afternoon. This will result in strong
winds again but not quite as strong as today, however central Kansas
could reach wind advisory levels and will hoist a headline for that
area. The combination of dry air and gusty winds will elevate the
grassland fire risk again for Tuesday afternoon. See fire weather
section below for more details. Dry weather conditions are expected
for Tuesday and Wednesday

Models show elevated moisture returning northward across Oklahoma
towards eastern Kansas for late Wednesday night into Thursday. This
looks to spark off some elevated storms for Thursday
afternoon/evening over southeast Kansas into Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 301 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

An active upper level northwest flow regime will be in place across
Kansas for this period with a couple more pronounced weather systems
moving across the central plains. Cooler air will back door its way
across Kansas from the northeast on Friday in the wake of the
Thursday upper wave, and become re-enforced for the weekend in the
wake of a second stronger upper level wave for Saturday. This second
system looks to increase the rain chances for mainly Friday night
into Saturday while it races through the northwest flow regime
aloft. Long range models show a third upper level wave racing across
the region for Sunday night into Monday but differ on the
positioning of this system which would affect possible precipitation
chances, therefore confidence is not as high for days 6/7 and will
keep precipitation chances lower.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 524 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

Very strong winds will ahead and behind the front will continue
into the late evening hours. Meanwhile thunderstorms will develop
along the cold front and race eastward across southeast Kansas
this evening. A few strong to severe storms will be possible and
could affect the CNU TAF site later this evening. Otherwise winds
will decrease later tonight and then increase again for tomorrow
with mainly a west direction.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

Winds will remain extremely strong and gusty for this afternoon into
the evening hours with a red flag warning in effect until 8pm.
Meanwhile a strong cold front will race across the region tonight
with winds switching to the northwest. Strong gusty northwest winds
will combine with dry air and elevate the grassland fire risk once
again on Tuesday. Very high to extreme fire levels are expected and
a red flag warning has been hoisted for much of the region on late
Tuesday morning through the afternoon. Very high grassland fire
danger will affect the region again on Wednesday as the winds switch
back around to the south. The weather pattern will be changing for
Thursday into the weekend which will lower the risk for fire weather
across the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    33  65  35  70 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      31  65  32  70 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          33  64  34  69 /  10   0   0   0
ElDorado        34  63  35  70 /  10   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   35  64  36  71 /  10   0   0   0
Russell         27  65  29  70 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      28  66  30  71 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          31  64  31  70 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       30  64  31  69 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     37  65  34  71 /  70   0   0   0
Chanute         36  63  33  70 /  70   0   0   0
Iola            36  63  34  70 /  60   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    37  64  34  71 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-094>096.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for KSZ032-033-048-
049.

&&

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
805 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-080215-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
805 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds up to 70 mph and large
hail up to two inches in diameter will be possible, mainly for
locations east of the Kansas turnpike. In addition there is also a
chance for a few brief tornadoes over southeast Kansas.

Extreme grassland fire danger and very strong winds will exist
across the entire area through the late evening hours. Please refer
to the Red Flag Warning and wind advisory that are in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The combination of strong gusty northwest winds and dry air will
create very high to extreme grassland fire danger levels on Tuesday
afternoon. Please see latest red flag warning and wind advisory
products for more details.

Very high grassland fire danger will be possible again for much of
the area on Wednesday afternoon.

The weather pattern will become more active later this week with
scattered thunderstorms possible Thursday through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
704 PM CST MON MAR 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     HAIL             2 W ROSALIA             37.82N 96.66W
03/06/2017  E1.00 INCH       BUTLER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RBL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
714 PM CST MON MAR 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TORNADO          2 SW LEON               37.67N 96.81W
03/06/2017                   BUTLER             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BRIEF TORNADO DAMAGED AN OUTBUILDING.

&&

RBL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
721 PM CST MON MAR 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COTTONWOOD FALLS        38.37N 96.54W
03/06/2017                   CHASE              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER POLES DOWN IN COTTONWOOD FALLS.

&&

RBL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
740 PM CST MON MAR 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EL DORADO               37.82N 96.86W
03/06/2017                   BUTLER             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE TO RESIDENCE ON SOUTH SIDE OF EL DORADO.
            SCREENED-IN PORCH TORN OFF.

&&

RBL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
801 PM CST MON MAR 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 N YATES CENTER        37.99N 95.74W
03/06/2017  E70 MPH          WOODSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RBL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
827 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

KSZ071-072-095-096-070300-
Wilson KS-Woodson KS-Neosho KS-Allen KS-
827 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Central Wilson County in southeastern Kansas...
  Eastern Woodson County in southeastern Kansas...
  Neosho County in southeastern Kansas...
  Allen County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 900 PM CST

* At 825 PM CST...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
  Bronson to near Altoona...and moving east at 85 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Chanute, Iola, Fredonia, Humboldt, Yates Center, Erie, St. Paul, La
  Harpe, Gas, Moran, Thayer, Altoona, Buffalo, Neosho Falls,
  Savonburg, Elsmore, Benedict, Stark, Earlton and Mildred.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issues by the National Weather
Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 300 AM CST for southeastern
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3749 9595 3803 9567 3804 9508 3747 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 253DEG 75KT 3794 9507 3753 9571

MCGUIRE