Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Wichita, KS

692 
WWUS53 KICT 200031
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
731 PM CDT WED APR 19 2017

KSC009-053-159-200100-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-170420T0100Z/
Rice KS-Ellsworth KS-Barton KS-
731 PM CDT WED APR 19 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN RICE...SOUTHWESTERN ELLSWORTH AND BARTON COUNTIES...

At 730 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Lorraine to 6 miles southeast of Great Bend,
moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Great Bend, Hoisington, Ellinwood, Claflin, Holyrood, Bushton, Pawnee
Rock, Lorraine, Great Bend Airport, Cheyenne Bottoms, Silica and
Odin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of 
a building. This is a dangerous storm that is showing the potential 
for a tornado.  If you are in the Great Bend and Ellinwood area, 
you need to take shelter immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 9890 3870 9858 3870 9821 3826 9847
      3826 9903 3841 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 300DEG 31KT 3855 9823 3829 9874 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

METZGER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
303 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Expecting thunderstorms to develop rapidly along the cold front
around 5pm for Central Kansas, as it continues to move southward and
cooler mid-level air approaches from the west to weaken the cap.
Severe weather is likely with upper level jet winds now spreading
east overtop the unstable airmass which will boost wind shear
values. This combined with very steep mid-level lapse rates could
result in large hail greater than 2 inches, as long storms can stay
discrete long enough before they transition to a line and anvil
seeding begins. Damaging winds will become the primary threat as the
storms transition into a line. There is a small chance for a tornado
to occur before sunset if a thunderstorm outflow boundary moves
perpendicular to the frontal boundary and a strong updraft develops
over that intersection of the two boundaries.

Surface high pressure will build into the area on Thursday with rain
showers tapering off across Southeast Kansas by Thursday afternoon.
Daytime highs will be cooler than Wednesday and closer to seasonal
averages. Meanwhile the next weather system is currently offshore
from the Northwest coastline and will move southeast across the
Rockies on Thursday night. Showers/embedded thunderstorms will
spread northward from Oklahoma into Kansas ahead of this weather
system for late Thursday night. The showers/storms look to become
more numerous during the day on Friday/Friday night as low-level
moisture transport increases ahead of deepening upper level PV wave,
especially for locations south of highway 54. Some of those
locations could see heavy rainfall at times with amounts of 1 to 3
inches possible, this combined with tonights and Thursday morning
rainfall could push the one to three day totals into the 2-4 inch
range with some locally higher amounts possible. Minor flooding and
rises on rivers across Southeast Kansas are conceivable, therefore
we will hoist a flood watch for late Thursday night-Friday night.

The wind shear will be very strong ahead of the main PV wave Friday
afternoon over Southeast Kansas but elevated instability is limited,
however the strong upper level forcing ahead of the PV wave itself
could still generate a few strong thunderstorms. Daytime
temperatures will be cool and below normal on Friday as the surface
front remains south of the area. The cool below normal temperatures
will continue into Saturday as rain showers quickly dwindle over
Southeast Kansas Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Modest upper level riding will develop over the central plains on
Sunday with a deep meridional trough digging across the Southeast
states on Monday. This will sweep out all of remaining rich gulf
moisture from the entire US and push it all the way into the
southern areas of the Gulf of Mexico region. Therefore confidence is
high that dry weather will prevail on Sunday into early next week
before some recovery of moisture pushes back northward for
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Did somewhat of an overhaul of the TAFs given latest trends. This
afternoon, the MVFR deck of CU will continue along and east of
I-35 until late evening when diurnal heating dissipates enough.
Most locations in these clouds will be SCT-BKN025.

Several models now showing a faster progression of the front over
the region. We focused on the length of which the models held
onto convection behind the advancing front and decreased that
significantly.

What this means for aviation is that storms will develop along a
pre-frontal trough across central Kansas around 23z and move
southeast. Some of these could be severe. A cold front will
advance and move through the area behind the trough. This will
occur from about 01z at KRSL to around 12z at KCNU. As the front
passes, it should mark the end of the precipitation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    53  68  50  55 /  60  10  40  90
Hutchinson      51  68  48  53 /  60   0  20  80
Newton          51  67  48  54 /  60  10  20  80
ElDorado        53  68  50  55 /  70  20  30  90
Winfield-KWLD   55  67  51  56 /  50  30  50  90
Russell         47  70  47  54 /  40   0  10  70
Great Bend      48  70  47  52 /  50   0  20  80
Salina          49  69  48  55 /  70   0  10  70
McPherson       50  68  47  53 /  70   0  20  80
Coffeyville     58  66  53  60 /  60  80  70  90
Chanute         56  66  51  57 /  60  60  40  90
Iola            55  67  50  57 /  60  50  30  80
Parsons-KPPF    57  66  52  58 /  60  80  60  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday morning
for KSZ069-083-092>096-098>100.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...KRC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
359 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-202100-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
359 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Strong winds will continue through the late afternoon hours. Please
see the latest wind advisory in effect.

Thunderstorms will develop and affect central Kansas through the
evening hours and then form a line of storms and continue to move
southward. The greatest risk for severe storms is expected across
central Kansas and portions of south central Kansas. The primary
threats will be large hail around two inches and damaging winds to
70 mph. A brief tornado is also possible until sunset over central
Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Another powerful storm system will affect the area Thursday night
through Saturday. A few strong storms will be possible on Friday
afternoon and evening, generally east of the Kansas turnpike.
Excessive rainfall and minor lowland flooding is likely Friday and
Friday night across much of the area, including significant rises on
some rivers and creeks. See latest flood watch for more details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed into the late evening hours across
central Kansas today.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
617 PM CDT WED APR 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     HAIL             LINCOLN                 39.04N 98.15W
04/19/2017  E1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CDJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
632 PM CDT WED APR 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     HAIL             5 E LINCOLN             39.04N 98.06W
04/19/2017  E1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CDJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
635 PM CDT WED APR 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             9 E LINCOLN             39.04N 97.98W
04/19/2017  E1.25 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CDJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
648 PM CDT WED APR 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     HAIL             5 NW ELLSWORTH          38.79N 98.29W
04/19/2017  E2.00 INCH       ELLSWORTH          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CDJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
658 PM CDT WED APR 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             2 W ELLSWORTH           38.74N 98.27W
04/19/2017  E1.25 INCH       ELLSWORTH          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT 9TH AND OLD 40 WEST OF
            ELLSWORTH.

&&

CDJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
705 PM CDT WED APR 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     HAIL             ELLSWORTH               38.74N 98.23W
04/19/2017  E1.00 INCH       ELLSWORTH          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CDJ