Severe Thunderstorm Warning 249, NWS Wichita, KS

777 
WWUS53 KICT 162142
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
442 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2017

KSC019-049-162152-
/O.CAN.KICT.SV.W.0249.000000T0000Z-170916T2200Z/
Elk KS-Chautauqua KS-
442 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ELK AND EASTERN
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3700 9627 3730 9616 3739 9597 3700 9597
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 247DEG 24KT 3733 9582 

$$

JAKUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
259 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Scattered showers/thunderstorms currently southeast of the
Turnpike corridor may tend to gain some strength as they become
increasingly rooted in the destabilizing boundary layer. This
activity should exit into far eastern KS and MO by evening.
Attention then turns to thunderstorm chances late this afternoon
and evening along and ahead of a southeastward advancing cold
front. Despite strong frontal convergence, upper support and mid-
level cooling is rather weak to non-existent (other than a subtle
jet streak approaching from the southwest). Consequently, activity
may tend to be fairly isolated to widely scattered at best.
Nevertheless, MLCAPE values up to 3000 j/kg in concert with 25-30
kts of deep layer shear will promote strong/severe activity with
anything that can develop. Main threats will be hail up to quarter
to ping-pong ball size and 60-70 mph winds, along with pockets of
heavy rainfall. The greatest potential will be generally
northwest of Winfield to Eureka, and southeast of Salina to Lyons.

Post-frontal warm advection coupled with weak disturbances
embedded within moist mid-level flow will support mostly cloudy
and cooler conditions Sunday, along with hit-or-miss chances for
showers/thunderstorms. Likely not looking at severe weather given
limited instability and lapse rates. Thinking thunderstorm chances
and coverage will gradually increase Sunday night through early
Monday, as an upper trough approaching from the west induces
isentropic ascent and moisture transport across the region. While
widespread severe weather appears unlikely, a handful of strong to
marginally severe storms are possible, along with pockets of
heavy rain.

For Monday-Monday night, warm advection associated with EML
advancing eastward across the area may lead to additional hit-or-
miss storms, but widespread coverage is not expected. Thinking hot
and windy conditions will prevail Tuesday, as a potent Northern
Rockies shortwave induces deep low pressure across the High
Plains. Additionally, EML advancing over the region should keep
most areas dry Tuesday. Model consensus advances a strong cold
front southeast across the region Tuesday night, although given
lack of mid-level cooling and upper support, shower/storm
probabilities appear low at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

After a cool down Wednesday in wake of the cold front,
operational model and ensemble consensus continues to strongly
support the development of a deep longwave trough across the
western CONUS late week through the weekend. This will support
warm and windy weather across Mid-America late week through
weekend. Anticipating mostly dry weather Wed-Thu, with
shower/thunderstorm chances gradually increasing by Thu night and
Friday as moist subtropical mid/upper flow increases from the
southwest. Additionally, while model variability is still fairly
high surrounding specifics, there is potential for a strong
frontal passage mid-late weekend, which would drastically increase
precipitation chances and potential for heavy rain. GFS is most
supportive of this scenario.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

A strong cold front will move southeast across central and
southeast Kansas through this evening and tonight. Scattered
elevated convection will continue to precede this front this
afternoon along the Kansas turnpike corridor. Surface based storms
are expected by early evening along the front with the main
impacts across south central Kansas. Blustery north winds will
prevail behind the frontal passage until early this evening across
central Kansas. MVFR cigs are also expected to develop behind the
front late tonight into Sunday morning, again mainly impacting
southern Kansas.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    64  78  66  88 /  40  40  40  40
Hutchinson      60  74  64  88 /  40  40  50  40
Newton          60  75  65  86 /  50  40  50  50
ElDorado        63  75  66  86 /  50  40  50  50
Winfield-KWLD   67  80  66  88 /  50  40  50  30
Russell         56  73  62  86 /  30  30  60  30
Great Bend      57  73  62  88 /  30  30  50  30
Salina          59  75  64  85 /  50  30  60  50
McPherson       60  74  63  87 /  50  40  50  50
Coffeyville     69  82  67  87 /  50  40  40  30
Chanute         67  77  66  84 /  50  40  50  40
Iola            67  76  65  83 /  50  40  60  40
Parsons-KPPF    69  80  67  86 /  50  40  50  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...KED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
402 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-172115-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
402 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few severe storms are expected across the region through the
evening. The first area will be over far southeast Kansas before
roughly 6 PM, with another area generally along and northwest of the
Kansas Turnpike between roughly 5 and 10 PM. The strongest activity
will be capable of 60 to 70 mph winds and ping-pong ball size hail,
along with pockets of heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

An off-and-on active weather pattern will persist across the region
Sunday through next weekend.

Hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms will impact the area Sunday,
with activity increasing in coverage Sunday night and persisting
into Monday morning. While widespread severe weather is not
expected, the strongest activity may produce dime size hail and 55
mph winds, along with pockets of heavy rain. Isolated storm chances
will persist Monday evening and night.

Thunderstorm chances should gradually increase from late week into
next weekend, with strong to marginally storms and locally heavy
rain possible.

Strong and gusty south winds coupled with above normal temperatures
will likely support very high grassland fire danger Tuesday,
Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed before roughly 6 PM over far
southeast Kansas, and between roughly 5 and 10 PM generally
northwest of the Kansas Turnpike, and southeast of a line extending
from Great Bend to Lincoln.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
326 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2017

KSZ093-098-162100-
Cowley KS-Chautauqua KS-
326 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern Cowley County in south central Kansas...
  Southwestern Chautauqua County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 400 PM CDT

* At 325 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Grainola, or 9 miles southwest
  of Cedar Vale...moving northeast at 30 mph.

wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Cedar Vale and Elgin.

LAT...LON 3711 9672 3719 9624 3700 9621 3700 9672
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 260DEG 26KT 3699 9660

DARMOFAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
334 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FREDONIA                37.53N 95.82W
09/16/2017                   WILSON             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWNED IN TOWN.

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
357 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0351 PM     TSTM WND GST     CHANUTE AIRPORT         37.67N 95.49W
09/16/2017  M59 MPH          NEOSHO             KS   ASOS

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
403 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 PM     TSTM WND GST     SEDAN                   37.13N 96.18W
09/16/2017  E60 MPH          CHAUTAUQUA         KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
413 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHAUTAUQUA              37.02N 96.18W
09/16/2017                   CHAUTAUQUA         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            8 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWNED.

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
414 PM CDT SAT SEP 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     TSTM WND GST     CHAUTAUQUA              37.02N 96.18W
09/16/2017  E65 MPH          CHAUTAUQUA         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KED