Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Wichita, KS

619 
WWUS53 KICT 080801
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
301 AM CDT SAT JUL 8 2017

KSC077-080811-
/O.CAN.KICT.SV.W.0187.000000T0000Z-170708T0815Z/
Harper KS-
301 AM CDT SAT JUL 8 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARPER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3700 9813 3719 9803 3715 9780 3700 9780
TIME...MOT...LOC 0759Z 302DEG 25KT 3695 9773 

$$

CARUSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1132 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017

Forecast highlights...Thunderstorm chances through Saturday
morning, hot and mostly dry thru the upcoming week.

This afternoon-tonight...Hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms will
impact the region this afternoon, as a subtle upper level impulse
approaches from the northwest, and a weak cold frontal zone moves
slowly south over southern KS. Thinking widely scattered storms
that can develop over southern KS will have the greatest potential
to be surface-based, and thus have a higher likelihood of being
strong/severe. Organized severe weather is not expected, although
ample instability with weak deep layer shear could promote dime-
quarter size hail, 50-60 mph winds and torrential downpours with
the strongest activity. Meanwhile, severe weather appears unlikely
with activity further north across central and east-central
Kansas, as it is rooted around 700mb. After midnight, thunderstorm
chances may increase from the west, as a loosely organized
thunderstorm complex or two rolls southeast off the High Plains,
amidst favorable moist/unstable low-level inflow. Most hi-
resolution short-term models target primarily southern portions of
central KS and south-central KS with this activity. Organized
severe weather appears unlikely.

Saturday-Sunday...Thinking a few morning showers/thunderstorms
may linger across south-central KS Saturday. Otherwise, the rest
of the day should remain dry for most areas, with highs climbing
into the upper 80s to low 90s. There are some hints for a few
showers/thunderstorms across mainly central and northern KS
Saturday night, as afternoon Nebraska thunderstorm activity
possibly moves south along eastern edge of warmer mid-level
temperatures. This could linger into Sunday morning over
eastern/southeast KS. Otherwise, warmer temperatures will start to
creep in for Sunday, with highs reaching the upper 90s west of
I-135.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017

Monday-Friday...Medium range model consensus supports above
normal temperatures and mostly dry weather this upcoming week, as
upper level high pressure builds in from the west. High
temperatures will be well into the 90s, and some locations across
portions of central/north-central KS reaching the low 100s per
progged low-level thickness values. This will also shift the
storm track north, supporting low to nil precipitation chances for
most areas. If anyone is going to experience a shower or
thunderstorm, it would be portions of central and northern KS
Wednesday night, and again later in the week. However, the ECMWF
is not nearly as optimistic with this scenario, keeping the ridge
firmly in place, compared to the GFS which attempts to retrograde
the ridge some by late week, resulting in increased storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period.
That said, scattered elevated convection is expected overnight
from west-central into south central Kansas. The highest
probabilities are expected west of a KRSL-KHUT-KICT line, though
plan to insert VCSH through the early morning predawn hours in
those terminals as well as KGBD. Amendments as needed for TSRA.
Light easterly component wind will veer to more of a southerly
component during Saturday.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  90  71  94 /  30  30  10  10
Hutchinson      67  91  70  96 /  30  30  10  10
Newton          67  90  70  93 /  20  20  10  10
ElDorado        66  88  69  92 /  20  20  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   70  90  71  93 /  30  30  10  10
Russell         65  92  68  98 /  30  20  20   0
Great Bend      65  91  68  97 /  40  30  10   0
Salina          65  93  70  97 /  10  10  20  10
McPherson       66  91  69  96 /  20  20  10  10
Coffeyville     70  90  70  91 /  30  30  20  20
Chanute         67  89  69  90 /  10  10  10  20
Iola            67  89  68  90 /  10  10  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    68  89  69  91 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...KED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
924 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-090230-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
924 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance for thunderstorms across a part of central and
southern Kansas, generally southwest of a Salina to Newton to
Chanute line. These storms are not expected to be strong or severe,
though some locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A few showers and storms may linger across the area Saturday
morning, with slight chances over central Kansas Saturday night and
southeast Kansas Sunday morning. A few strong storms capable of 50
mph winds are possible Saturday night across central Kansas.

Hot and mostly dry weather will prevail through the upcoming week,
with heat indices around 100 degrees Sunday, and 100 to 103 degrees
through at least mid-week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
142 AM CDT SAT JUL 8 2017

KSZ091-080730-
Harper KS-
142 AM CDT SAT JUL 8 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southwestern Harper County in south central Kansas...

* Until 230 AM CDT

* At 139 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 6 miles southwest of Attica...moving
  southeast at 25 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Attica, Waldron and Corwin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issues by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9835 3729 9835 3727 9813 3700 9804
TIME...MOT...LOC 0642Z 311DEG 20KT 3717 9830

CARUSO