Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Wichita, KS

834 
WWUS53 KICT 311949
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
249 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

KSC115-312045-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0115.000000T0000Z-170531T2045Z/
Marion KS-
249 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY...

At 249 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Peabody, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Peabody.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3835 9713 3819 9687 3809 9706 3809 9715
      3818 9716 3817 9723 3819 9725
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 223DEG 17KT 3820 9712 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DARMOFAL

923 
WWUS53 KICT 312001
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
301 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

KSC115-312010-
/O.CAN.KICT.SV.W.0115.000000T0000Z-170531T2045Z/
Marion KS-
301 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. However small hail and 
gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
south central and central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3835 9713 3819 9687 3809 9706 3809 9715
      3818 9716 3817 9723 3819 9725
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 223DEG 17KT 3824 9707 

$$

DARMOFAL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1241 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017

A weak diffuse frontal boundary continues to be located from
generally KSLN southeast to KCNU. Isolated storms continue to
develop along this weak boundary over SE KS and some over South
Central KS. Expect the isolated/widely scattered storms to become a
little more numerous for the early morning hours across South
Central KS as weak mid level warm advection and isentropic lift
again increases across the forecast area. This will lead to a
general increase in the coverage by around sunrise, with elevated
instability around 500-1000 j/kg leading to some thunderstorms.

After the morning convection wanes by noon. NW mid level flow will
slowly begin to shift east of the area by this evening, but before
it does, impulses in the flow are expected to drop southeast across
the area this afternoon. A return of warmer southerly flow, to the
west of the impulse, will lead to increased low level moisture
advection and will in effect sharpen the convergence along the quasi-
stationary boundary still expected to be located from KRSL to KSGF
this afternoon. Latest Nam/WRF and GFS both show 850-700h Fn-
convergence increasing along this boundary late this afternoon. So
think scattered showers/thunderstorms will develop for the afternoon
hours as convergence increases and lift increases from the NW flow
impulse. With MLCAPE values potentially climbing to around 1500-2000
j/kg during max heating, and bulk shear similar to yesterday of 30-
35 kts, think some severe storms look possible across portions of
Central KS and areas northeast and east of Wichita.  Could see some
rotating storms early on, which may lead to a large hail threat, but
as storms congeal into a broken cluster of storms, the main threat
will gradually transition to a damaging wind threat. Propagation
vectors seem to suggest convection that develops in Central KS will
drop south-southeast during the evening hours, towards highway
54/400 and the Flint HIlls. So portions of the Flint Hills and even
the Wichita metro area, may see thunderstorms roll into area late
this evening.

Think convective chances will end from west to the east as tonight
progresses, as increasing warm air aloft will lead to increasing
inhibition for storm development.

Could see a lull in the showers for most of Thu, as the warm
advection pushes the warm front well northeast of the area. Some
model differences on how the daytime hours Thu will play out, with
the NAM/WRF and ECMWF showing a dry spell, while the GFS suggests a
weak impulse in the southerly flow will lead to increasing chances
of showers and thunderstorms for southeast KS for Thu
afternoon/evening. Prefer to go with the drier solution for now and
keep things dry for most of Thu.

Storm chances look to return to the region for Fri as impulses in
the weak southwest flow continue to rotate NE into the forecast
area. Increasing low level moisture will lead to periodic chances
of showers and thunderstorms, as the lift increases.

Severe chances for the end of the week look fairly low given the
weak shear pattern, but some moderate instability may lead to a few
strong storms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017

A cold front looks to drift south into Central KS for early Sat,
with the front lingering across the area for most of Sat through Sat
night. This will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms for
most of the area.

The frontal boundary looks to drop south of the area for Sunday,
which may lead to a break from the thunderstorms for Sunday. But
upslope flow on the backside of the front may lead to convection
developing across the high plains for Sun night through Mon. This
convection may drop E-SE into western sections of the forecast area
for the beginning of the week.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017

Convection is expected to develop along and south of a surface
front which has sagged across central Kansas at midday. Scattered
to numerous showers and storms are expected by late afternoon and
should continue into the evening. A complex of storms is possible
overnight somewhere across central and eastern Kansas. For now
have VCTS in most terminals for the window of greatest
opportunity and will AMD with TEMPO as needed. Outside of
convection, some MVFR cigs will be possible early Thursday morning
along and east of I-135, though for now have kept forecast mainly
VFR.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    86  64  86  66 /  30  40  10  10
Hutchinson      86  63  86  65 /  40  40  10  10
Newton          84  63  85  65 /  40  50  10  10
ElDorado        84  64  85  65 /  40  40  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   87  65  86  66 /  30  30  10  10
Russell         84  62  87  63 /  40  50  10  10
Great Bend      86  62  86  63 /  40  50  10  10
Salina          84  64  87  66 /  40  50  20  10
McPherson       84  63  86  64 /  40  50  10  10
Coffeyville     86  63  85  65 /  30  30  20  10
Chanute         84  63  85  65 /  40  40  30  10
Iola            83  63  84  65 /  40  40  30   0
Parsons-KPPF    84  64  85  65 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...KED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
147 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-011900-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
147 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into the
early evening across parts of central, south central and southeast
Kansas. The greatest risk for large hail to quarter size and 60 mph
winds will exist along and northeast of an Ellsworth to Wichita to
Sedan line. The severe threat may evolve into a damaging wind
threat as the thunderstorms congeal into a complex of storms late
this evening. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will also
increase late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will prevail across the
region Friday afternoon through the weekend, and into next week.
Highest chances will generally be during the evening and overnight
hours. While organized severe weather appears unlikely, a handful
of strong storms are possible, along with locally heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible late this afternoon and early
evening, mainly northeast of a line from Ellsworth to Wichita to
Sedan.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
129 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0126 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NNW PARSONS           37.36N 95.28W
05/31/2017  E50 MPH          LABETTE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KED

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service WICHITA KS
200 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

KSZ068-311930-
Harvey KS-
200 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

The National Weather Service in WICHITA has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Harvey County in south central Kansas...

* Until 230 PM CDT

* At 158 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Newton...moving northeast at 15
  mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Newton, Hesston, Halstead, North Newton, Sedgwick, Walton and
  Newton Airport.

LAT...LON 3792 9717 3792 9754 3805 9767 3817 9768
      3817 9716
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 228DEG 13KT 3803 9734

COOK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
204 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             NEWTON                  38.04N 97.34W
05/31/2017  E1.75 INCH       HARVEY             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KED

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service WICHITA KS
205 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

KSZ052-053-069-311930-
Butler KS-Marion KS-Chase KS-
205 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

The National Weather Service in WICHITA has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northeastern Butler County in south central Kansas...
  Southeastern Marion County in central Kansas...
  Southwestern Chase County in east central Kansas...

* Until 230 PM CDT

* At 203 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Burns, or 11 miles southeast of
  Florence...moving east at 15 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Burns, Cassoday, Matfield Green and Wonsevu.

LAT...LON 3801 9693 3819 9691 3821 9656 3794 9659
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 275DEG 12KT 3810 9683

COOK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
207 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0204 PM     HAIL             NEWTON                  38.04N 97.34W
05/31/2017  E0.88 INCH       HARVEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL FOR 5 TO 10 MINUTES.

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
219 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     HAIL             5 ENE NEWTON            38.07N 97.26W
05/31/2017  E1.25 INCH       HARVEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KED