Areal Flood Warning 41, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
705 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 705 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

This Evening:
At 7 PM CDT, axis of strongest convection extended from around
Manhattan to Newton with convection continuing to move northeast
around 35 mph. Showers & embedded thunderstorms were also moving
northeast around 35 mph across Northeast OK. Current Doppler
trends depict the strongest thunderstorms passing just to the
southeast of Southeast KS thru 10 PM CDT.

UPDATE Issued at 501 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Headline: Tornado Watch #250 in effect for all of South-Central
and parts of Central & Southeast KS until 10 PM CDT.

This Evening:
A line of thunderstorms, a few of which are producing tornadoes,
continue to move northeast around 30 mph. At 5 PM CDT, the
thunderstorms producing tornadoes were surging northeast across
Reno and Kingman Counties. All products have been updated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Water vapor imagery shows deep upper low spinning over southern
CO/northeast NM. At the surface, stationary front extends from
near KMCI to southwest of KICT.

Initial round of warm advection storms quickly lifted across the
area this morning but it appears it did little to push the front
south, with southeast winds still in place across western OK and
southern KS. Meanwhile, persistent line of convection remains over
eastern OK in an area of strong 850mb moisture transport and
theta-e advection.

Current thinking is that another round of storms will develop
later this afternoon along the surface front over western OK and
lift into south central and especially southeast KS. This activity
will likely persist into the early evening hours. Should also see
additional development southeast of the KS Turnpike this evening
as 850-700mb moisture transport once again ramps up.

We are also seeing additional convection over western KS, closer
to the upper low where mid level lapse rates are maximized with
this activity possibly affecting central/south central KS later
this afternoon into the early evening hours. While instability
doesn't look as high as we had yesterday at this time, there
should still be enough early this evening for some severe storms,
plus deep layer shear in the 40-55kt range won't hurt. PW's in the
1.75 to 2 inch range southeast of the KS turnpike will also allow
for high rainfall rates which may lead to some flooding tonight.
Current plan is to keep entire flood watch going and will likely
cancel the western flank once the activity over west-central KS
lifts out early this evening.

By 12z Sat, the upper low will be lifting over southwest Nebraska
with the cold front extending through the Ozark region into the
Arklatex area. May see some lingering precip over far SE KS Sat
morning, but by the early afternoon hours the forecast area will
be precip free. Shortwave will continue to lift northeast and will
be over the northern Mississippi Valley by Sun afternoon. Should
continue with dry and cool conditions Sun as weak surface high
pressure pushes east.

Confidence is high that we'll see below normal temps for both Sat
and Sun with Sat in the 60s with low to mid 70s expected for Sun.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

There is decent model agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in
tracking some shortwave energy out of the central Great Basin and
across KS late Sun night into Mon. This will bring us our next
chance for precip, but with limited moisture not expecting any
severe storms or heavy rain. There is a slight chance for some
light showers Tue, in the wrap around region of an upper low off
to our east, but confidence is low in this panning out. Will
finally get into a warming trend for Thu and especially Fri as
the upper flow becomes more zonal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 705 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

At issuance mid-level low pressure was centered close to the CO/KS
border while a somewhat diffuse sfc low was situated over South-
Central KS & North-Central OK. A weak stationary front extended
east/northeast from the sfc low to West-Central MO. Scattered
(+)TSRA continue from Northeast KS, thru South-Central KS, to
Eastern OK. The TSRA should continue to move northeast ~30kts
across Eastern KS this evening. The scattered convection is
causing cigs to vary considerably & will continue to cause
significant challenges this evening. Confidence is high that IFR &
"low-end" MVFR cigs will continue to spread southeast across most
of KS as evening progresses & persist thru late Saturday Morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    50  64  46  75 /  40  10   0  10
Hutchinson      48  63  44  74 /  70  10   0  10
Newton          49  62  44  73 /  60  10   0  10
ElDorado        51  64  45  73 /  40  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   53  66  46  75 /  30  10   0   0
Russell         43  60  41  74 /  50  20   0  10
Great Bend      44  61  42  74 /  40  10   0  20
Salina          45  61  43  74 /  90  20   0  10
McPherson       48  62  43  73 /  80  10   0  10
Coffeyville     59  69  47  74 /  70  20   0   0
Chanute         57  68  46  73 /  60  20   0   0
Iola            57  67  46  72 /  70  20   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    59  69  47  73 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

UPDATE...EPS
SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...EPS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
500 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-202200-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
500 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central, South
Central and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely this evening, especially
across all of South-Central Kansas as well as Greenwood, Elk and
Chautauqua Counties of Southeast Kansas where a few tornadoes are
likely. Hail up to half dollar-sized and damaging 60 to 70 mph
winds are also possible. Thunderstorms with pockets of heavy
rainfall rates are also expected throughout the evening areawide
which may cause flooding, including rises on area rivers and
streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Minor flooding on some area rivers and streams is expected to
continue through part of the weekend. Please refer to the Flood
Warnings and River Flood statements for details.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Sunday night through early next
week across much of the area. The risk for organized strong or
severe storms appears low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
744 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             NEWTON                  38.04N 97.34W
05/19/2017  E0.75 INCH       HARVEY             KS   STORM CHASER

            DELAYED REPORT. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
746 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND GST     NEWTON                  38.04N 97.34W
05/19/2017  E60 MPH          HARVEY             KS   STORM CHASER

            DELAYED REPORT. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
751 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     TORNADO          3 NW COTTONWOOD FALLS   38.40N 96.58W
05/19/2017                   CHASE              KS   STORM CHASER

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN IN OPEN COUNTRY.

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
802 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     TORNADO          3 N TALLGRASS PRAIRIE   38.48N 96.56W
05/19/2017                   CHASE              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ALONG THE CHASE/MORRIS COUNTY LINE.

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
807 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     TORNADO          5 N TALLGRASS PRAIRIE   38.51N 96.56W
05/19/2017                   CHASE              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ALONG THE CHASE/MORRIS COUNTY LINE. CORRECTED LOCATION.

&&

BDK

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