Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
300 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

An active convective situation continued to take shape across the
Tennessee Valley this afternoon, as strong/severe thunderstorms
begin moving across far NW Alabama. As such, Severe Thunderstorm
Watch #90 is now in effect for all of our Alabama counties until
9 PM CDT; and #91 for our Tennessee Counties until 10 PM.

Atmosphere wise, high temperatures so far have warmed into the
mid/upper 70s, with average dewpoint values ranging from the mid
50s to mid 60s (higher dewpoints generally to the west). This has
resulted in surface based CAPE values up into the 2000 J/kg range.
But lower level shear values were on the low side, mainly below 150
m/s except our far NW areas (per SPC meso-analysis). A warm frontal
boundary, thanks to a strong southerly flow has moved northward to
north of the Ohio Valley. A warm front denoting this change was in
place from low pressure along the central AR/MO border. A cold front
extended SW of this low across far NE Texas.

For tonight, various mesoscale models, as well as the NAM/ECMWF/
Canadian have convection rolling in a west east manner across the
region. As noted above, some of these storms could become strong to
severe --- with large hail and damaging winds the primary threats. A
tornado or two cannot be totally ruled out in the strongest storms.

With evening cooling after dusk, instability will remain but should
become more elevated. This will overall help temper tornado
potential, but large hail and strong to damaging wind gusts threats
remain. The storms per mesoscale models have the strongest convection
mostly to the south and east of the area and/or on a weakening trend
after midnight. Night low temperatures should fall to around 60.

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible over areas south
and east of the NW Alabama Quad Cities Tuesday morning. These storms
will end from NW to SE as a cold front moves across the region during
the day. Another mild to warm spring day is forecast with highs
warming into the low/mid 70s. The above noted frontal boundary will
become stationary; oriented west to east south of the area later
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Slightly cooler and drier air filtering in
from the NW will produce lows into the lower/mid 50s. There could be
patchy fog formation late Tuesday night, mainly within and near wind
sheltered areas and locations that were affected by recent heavy
rainfall.

Wednesday, the boundary south of the area will return northward as a
warm front, and bring a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms in
the afternoon. Given limited amounts and timing of instability, did
not continue rain chances into Wednesday night. The frontal boundary
will move ever so further north during the night-time, setting up
another busy day convective wise on Thursday...

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Models continue to diverge a bit concerning the eastward progression
of the storm system moving from Kansas/Oklahoma towards the
Tennessee Valley on Thursday. Based on the strong ridge it is moving
into over the Great Lakes region into the Mid-Atlantic region, think
the slower solution is more likely. Thus kept precipitation chances
isolated east of I-65 early on Thursday. West of I-65 enough forcing
and low-level moisture convergence should be in place in northwestern
Alabama for widespread shower and thunderstorm development.

Models diverge a bit concerning how far north the surface low and
thus how far north the warm front with this system sets up. This
would affect the amount of instability in place along and ahead of
the approaches storm system. Models are in fairly good agreement that
surface based instability around 500 J/kg is in place in the
morning. Along with 40 to 50 knots of Bulk Shear in place and some
low level turning of winds, severe storms producing damaging winds
are possible. These parameters continue and spread slowly east into
the late afternoon hours ahead of the system near and west of I- 65.
Surface based instability climbs to between 1000 and 1500 J/KG in
models (maybe a bit higher depending on how far north the warm front
makes it). Morning precipitation should keep the best instability in
place near and east of I-65. This would enhance damaging wind
potential and tornado potential as the afternoon would progress in
those areas. Luckily, low level helicity values forecast at this time
do suggest any tornadoes that develop would be fairly weak in
nature. As even stronger forcing moves into northern Alabama ahead of
a fairly strong cold front, strong to severe storms could last into
the early evening hours. However, by midnight the atmosphere should
be too worked over by precipitation to produce more than ordinary
showers and thunderstorms. Models diverge how quickly showers push
east of the area on Friday. Forecast models indicate a blend of this
timing and leans towards the later exiting time into Georgia late
Friday afternoon.

High pressure builds into the Tennessee Valley behind the front
Saturday night into Sunday, as another storm system develops
somewhere over southwestern Texas or Oklahoma. The surface high
should keep forcing and better moisture advection to our west in
Mississippi until Sunday evening. This should also keep highs and
lows cooler (highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s/lows in the upper
40s to lower 50s) Friday night through Sunday. By Sunday evening
into Monday, these parameters should become stronger over northern
Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee. At this time, this system
does not look as unstable as previous systems. Strong storms look
possible, but surface based instability does not looks as good. Rain
chances really pick up Monday into Monday night as this systems
pushes east through the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms will affect the area
this afternoon and evening. Some of the storms could become strong to
severe in intensity, with large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado
or two possible (the strongest storms occur in areas west of I-65).
Started prevailing convection at KMSL at 27/1900Z and KHSV an hour
later, with erratic wind gusts and lowered CIG/VIS values into MVFR.
Even lower minimums are possible in the strongest showers/storms.
Shower activity should wind down as the activity progresses in a NW-
SE manner this evening. Winds should remain high enough to keep fog
formation minimized late tonight.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...KTW
AVIATION...RSB

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
316 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-281130-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-De Kalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
316 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions of
southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue to develop into the
evening hours in response to a passing upper level disturbance. Some
of these storms may be strong to severe in nature this afternoon and
this evening, and will be capable of producing large hail and
damaging winds. A low tornado threat cannot be ruled as well. The
threat for strong to severe thunderstorms will then come to an end
around midnight.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue overnight, but should remain
below severe limits producing gusty winds and heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

A few lingering thunderstorms are possible Tuesday morning as a cold
front moves eastward across the outlook area.

Another storm system approaching from the west may bring additional
thunderstorms to the outlook area Thursday into Friday. Some storms
may be strong to severe but the exact details and timing remain
uncertain at this point.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
likely this afternoon and evening.

20

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
524 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

ALZ003-272300-
Franklin AL-
524 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM
CDT...

At 523 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Hackleburg, or 13 miles southeast of Red Bay,
moving east at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Russellville, Phil Campbell, Belgreen, Hodges, Atwood, Tharptown,
Duketon, Rockwood, Pleasant Ridge and Isbell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3444 8805 3454 8761 3431 8754 3431 8795
      3432 8796 3432 8800
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 250DEG 33KT 3436 8793

15

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
531 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

ALZ007-016-272315-
Morgan AL-Cullman AL-
531 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CULLMAN AND SOUTHERN
MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 531 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Falkville, or 9 miles south of Hartselle, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hartselle, Falkville, Morgan City, Somerville, West Point, Eva,
Valhermoso Springs, Cole Springs, Battleground and Lacon.

LAT...LON 3421 8702 3429 8707 3435 8710 3457 8668
      3455 8666 3455 8664 3458 8660 3458 8657
      3456 8655 3454 8655 3435 8658
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 245DEG 31KT 3431 8699

73

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
546 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             3 N FLORENCE            34.85N 87.68W
03/27/2017  M0.75 INCH       LAUDERDALE         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME SIZED HAIL ON PATSY DRIVE IN FORREST HILLS
            SUBDIVISION IN FLORENCE.

0235 PM     HAIL             3 N FLORENCE            34.85N 87.68W
03/27/2017  M0.88 INCH       LAUDERDALE         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NICKEL HAIL ON PATSY DRIVE IN FORREST HILLS SUBDIVISION
            IN FLORENCE.

0241 PM     HAIL             4 SSW GUNTERSVILLE      34.31N 86.32W
03/27/2017  M1.25 INCH       MARSHALL           AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BETWEEN QUARTER AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL ON SPRING CREEK
            DRIVE IN GUNTERSVILLE.

0241 PM     HAIL             1 SE GUNTERSVILLE       34.35N 86.28W
03/27/2017  M1.75 INCH       MARSHALL           AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            GOLFBALL HAIL ON THE EAST SIDE OF GUNTERSVILLE.

0336 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 SSW BELGREEN          34.41N 87.90W
03/27/2017                   FRANKLIN           AL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            WALL CLOUD SPOTTED WITH FUNNEL CLOUD TRYING TO LOWER.
            REPORT RELAYED BY NWS BMX COOP OBSERVER.

0345 PM     HAIL             1 S BELGREEN            34.47N 87.87W
03/27/2017  M1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER HAIL MEASURED AT THE FRANKLIN COUNTY EOC IN
            BELGREEN

0407 PM     HAIL             WSW VINA                34.38N 88.06W
03/27/2017  M1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER HAIL AT THE INTERSECTION OF CR 23 AND AL HWY 19
            IN VINA.

0416 PM     HAIL             7 S TOWN CREEK          34.58N 87.41W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       LAWRENCE           AL   PUBLIC

0426 PM     HAIL             4 SSW BELGREEN          34.42N 87.90W
03/27/2017  M1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER HAIL AT LITTLE BEAR CREEK RESERVOIR AT HWY 184
            AND WILLIAM HOLLOW ROAD IN SPRUCE PINE.

0456 PM     HAIL             N WILBURN               33.96N 87.04W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       CULLMAN            AL   PUBLIC

0459 PM     HAIL             2 N WILBURN             33.98N 87.03W
03/27/2017  M1.00 INCH       CULLMAN            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

0514 PM     HAIL             4 N BLACK BOTTOM        34.00N 86.86W
03/27/2017  E1.25 INCH       CULLMAN            AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

0525 PM     HAIL             RED BAY                 34.44N 88.14W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LNASH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
551 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

ALZ016-272315-
Cullman AL-
551 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CULLMAN COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM
CDT...

At 551 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Good Hope, or 8 miles southwest of Cullman, moving east at 55 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cullman, Hanceville, Good Hope, Holly Pond, Dodge City, Baldwin,
Vinemont, Baileyton, West Point and Fairview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike several miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3395 8701 3419 8708 3431 8671 3430 8652
      3425 8649 3425 8652 3423 8652 3420 8655
      3419 8655 3417 8657 3412 8660 3412 8663
      3409 8666 3408 8669 3409 8669 3407 8670
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 250DEG 49KT 3410 8696

15

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
555 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

ALZ008-009-272330-
Marshall AL-Jackson AL-
555 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JACKSON AND NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 555 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Skyline, or 10 miles west of Scottsboro, moving
east at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Scottsboro, Bridgeport, Stevenson, Sylvania, Hollywood, Powell,
Grant, Skyline, Section and Woodville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3460 8582 3450 8596 3452 8633 3456 8631
      3457 8633 3458 8630 3459 8630 3463 8636
      3494 8629 3494 8628 3492 8627 3493 8626
      3496 8628 3498 8628 3496 8572
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 255DEG 31KT 3473 8620

15

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