Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
Issued by National Weather Service JACKSON MS
1023 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1023 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017

Fog had burned off across the area, so allowed the advisory to
expire. Looks like the current complex to the west will miss most of
the area, maybe a few showers will skirt across the far western
zones. However diurnal activity and another upper level disturbance
will likely bring showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and
evening. Did not make any real changes to the forecast. Pops and
temps were good. Update was already out.

.SHORT TERM (Independence Day through Wednesday night)...

By Tuesday, the slow moving MCV will still be moving across central
TN and will result in more storm initiation across the TN Valley on
Tuesday morning into the afternoon hours. Similar environmental
setup is anticipated with instability parameters showing the
potential for mostly ordinary storms, but a few strong storms will
be possible closer to the MCV (i.e. far northern Alabama/southern
Tennessee). If current model runs verify, the storms should move off
to the east and/or diminish after sunset which should be helpful for
any outdoor activities.

The upper pattern begins to become more amplified on Wednesday as a
shortwave trough moves across the Corn Belt Region. Though the NAM
is much quicker with this feature and inclined to trend towards the
GFS/ECMWF slower trajectory and keep POPs mostly in the chance
category. The other reason for keeping the POPs is for any mesoscale
lift that may linger from the previous passage of storms on Tuesday,
convective initiation over the Cumberland Plateau and diurnal
effects. Otherwise, did lower the daytime high temperatures today
and Tuesday given expected storm activity and cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)

The medium range models are in general agreement on a deepening
eastern CONUS trof / western CONUS ridge late this week and into
next weekend.  Two shortwaves and cold frontal passages will result
during the day 4-7 timeframe.  The first of which will be on
Thursday, although this front basically washes out with little
airmass change expected.  We will continue with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday night.  On Friday, any
thunderstorm activity should be generated by daytime heating and
should be low coverage.  The next shortwave on Saturday into Saturday
night does not appear as vigorous aloft, but the cold front and air
mass will certainly bring a noticeable airmass shift, especially if
the GFS is correct.  A few strong thunderstorms will be possible,
with a modest peak in 6km bulk shear values in the 25-30kt range
possible. The GFS suggests dew points falling into the 50s by Sunday
but the ECMWF is not so optimistic.  Model blends fall closer to
the middle which is reasonable being a week out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 655 CDT Mon Jul 3 2017
Patchy LIFR conds were observed at 1130Z but IFR cigs prevailed
at locations. Conditions wl slowly improve through 15Z with VFR conds
expected to prevail today and continue this evening away from isold
aftn and early evng TSRAs. IFR cigs wl be psbl again Tue from 09Z-
12Z. /22/

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...99

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson MS
233 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

ALZ005-006-TNZ076-096-097-032030-
Madison AL-Limestone AL-Franklin TN-Moore TN-Lincoln TN-
233 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MADISON...NORTHERN LIMESTONE...MOORE...LINCOLN AND
NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

At 231 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Lewisburg to 6 miles west of Athens.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

Winds of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Petersburg around 240 PM CDT.
  Harvest around 310 PM CDT.
  Madison around 315 PM CDT.
  Northern Huntsville around 325 PM CDT.
  Meridianville, Moores Mill and Alabama A And M University around
  330 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3537 8627 3536 8624 3534 8627 3534 8619
      3474 8657 3477 8720 3500 8705 3499 8684
      3526 8683 3525 8675 3531 8668 3533 8661
      3537 8658 3536 8649 3532 8642 3535 8641
      3536 8633 3541 8627 3541 8626
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 272DEG 24KT 3542 8670 3484 8708

EC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson MS
307 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

ALZ005>007-032030-
Madison AL-Morgan AL-Limestone AL-
307 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL MADISON... SOUTHEASTERN LIMESTONE AND NORTHWESTERN
MORGAN COUNTIES...

At 305 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Tanner, or near Athens, moving east at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Huntsville International Airport around 325 PM CDT.
  Madison around 330 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Mooresville, Capshaw,
Belle Mina, French Mill, Toney and Ripley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3494 8674 3463 8661 3457 8709 3462 8711
      3469 8711 3470 8713 3471 8713 3477 8715
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 252DEG 26KT 3471 8700

NF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson MS
328 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

ALZ006-008-009-TNZ076-096-097-032115-
Marshall AL-Madison AL-Jackson AL-Franklin TN-Moore TN-Lincoln TN-
328 PM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN JACKSON...NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL...CENTRAL
MADISON...MOORE...SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

At 327 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from 6 miles south of Lynchburg to Huntsville.
Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Huntsville, Scottsboro, Winchester, Moores Mill, Meridianville,
Lynchburg, Redstone Arsenal, Hazel Green, Decherd, Estill Springs,
Cowan, Owens Cross Roads, Monteagle, Grant, Huntland, Skyline,
Gurley, Woodville, Tims Ford Lake and New Market.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3537 8627 3535 8624 3533 8626 3535 8623
      3533 8620 3536 8617 3535 8616 3536 8616
      3534 8603 3531 8600 3532 8598 3529 8592
      3522 8587 3446 8616 3460 8666 3532 8644
      3533 8641 3535 8641 3535 8637 3537 8633
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 316DEG 27KT 3519 8639 3475 8655

NF

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