Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Huntsville, AL

485 
WGUS74 KHUN 101431
FFSHUN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
931 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

ALC089-101441-
/O.EXP.KHUN.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-170810T1430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Madison AL-
931 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any
remaining road closures that may be in effect.

LAT...LON 3490 8633 3489 8634 3488 8634 3487 8635
      3486 8635 3485 8634 3484 8634 3484 8656
      3495 8663 3498 8632

$$

SL.77

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
417 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today)
Issued at 417 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

A passing upper level disturbance has resulted in the redevelopment
of overnight showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the north and east
of the greater Huntsville area. Non-operational GOES-16 indicated
cloud top temperatures down to -60C along the Madison/Jackson county
line before 2 AM. The area of convection appears to be situated
along/near a boundary. Locally heavy rains were noted under this
complex, with radar and MRMS indicating 2-4" of rainfall in that
area (near Owens Crossroads and Paint Rock). Another area of concern
was another area of heavy rain moving across the central Limestone
and Madison county line.

Short term model output, mainly the HRRR and RAP suggest this
particular complex should be north and east of the area before
daybreak. The above noted boundary should be north of the region as a
warm front, bringing deeper moisture across the Tennessee Valley.
Those models, as well as the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, Canadian all suggest
that after a temporary lull in rainfall this morning, business should
pick up this afternoon as more showers and thunderstorms redevelop -
mainly from instability caused by daytime heating and another upper
level system nearing from the west. Went with likely rain chances
this afternoon given a greater expected coverage of showers. Big
picture rainfall amounts should range from a few tenths of an inch,
upwards to maybe an inch or two in spots. With generally overall
"dry" soils, held off on a Flash Flood Watch for today. With some sun
expected, high temperatures this afternoon should range from the
lower 80s east to mid 80s west.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 417 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Shower activity per the models trends on a downward side after sunset
this evening. Muggy night lows only in the lower 70s are expected.
Almost a repeat performance weather wise is expected on Friday, with
more widespread showers and thunderstorms possible. Somewhat stronger
shear, with already high instability could lead to some storms
becoming strong in the afternoon, with gusty winds to 50 mph, locally
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Storm activity should wind
down again Friday night with a loss of daytime heating. High temps
before the showers commence should rise into the mid 80s east to
upper 80s west. For Saturday, stayed with similar thinking, with the
higher rain chances during the afternoon as should be the case today
and on Friday.

Flooding could become an issue during the short term, especially if
areas are impacted by heavy rain events. Large scale rainfall across
the area into Saturday should range in the 0.5 to 1.5 inch range, but
of course locally higher amounts are always possible.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 417 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Generally unsettled wx will continue into this portion of the
forecast period, as another weak frontal boundary approaches the
cntrl TN Valley from the NW. Latter half of the global models suggest
this next front stalling invof the mid TN Valley during the second
half of the weekend period. With a broad upper trough axis xpcted to
remain in place over much of the ern CONUS coupled with a persistent
moisture surge along/S of the stalled boundary, showers/tstms should
easily continue into the new work week. Weak embedded upper impulses
traversing ewd over much of the region should also provide an extra
focus mech for convective development. Given a fairly high moisture
column and broad upper forcing along the lingering frontal boundary,
multiple waves of mod/heavy rainfall/tstms impacting the same areas
may result in a localized flooding threat thru at least Tue. Latter
half of the models are then hinting at the front dropping further to
the S around mid week, as a strong area of high pressure builds ewd
into the Midwest/OH Valley states. If this scenario develops, this
may bring an end to the wet pattern affecting the local area near the
end of the forecast period. In any case, given the rainfall/unsettled
wx, afternoon highs are xpcted to continue trending slightly below
normal for this time of the yr, or more in the mid/upper 80s well
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Overnight, weak upper level disturbances will track in a SW-NE
manner across the region. These will bring and/or enhance overnight
convection (mostly showers). KMSL for the most part should remain
just NW of these systems, while KHSV will be closer to them. As such,
reductions to MVFR 2000-3000' AGL CIGs and 4-5SM VIS reductions in
the shower activity. Brief reductions to IFR or lower will occur
within the heaviest showers, along with occasional lightning. Deeper
moisture and more instability will be present during Thu, with
widespread showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and
early evening. Overall, VFR weather is expected, however TEMPO CIGs
to 2000-3000' AGL and/or 3-5SM VIS reductions will accompany the
showers. Even lower VIS/CIG values and gusty winds are possible in
the heavier showers and/or storms.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...09
AVIATION...RSB

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
526 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-111100-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-De Kalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
526 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions of
southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the outlook
area later today, as a warm front moves northward across south
central Alabama. Some storms may produce gusty winds and locally
heavy downpours. Localized flooding may develop in areas which
receive multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. Thunderstorms will then
diminish in coverage later this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue into the weekend
period, as the warm front moves north of the area and weakens.
Another weak frontal boundary approaching the outlook area from the
northwest near the end of the weekend period, will maintain
scattered to numerous thunderstorms into Tuesday. The stronger storms
will be capable of gusty outflow winds and locally heavy rainfall.
Localized flash flooding also remains a possibility in locations
which receive multiple episodes of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms will then begin to diminish Tuesday and Wednesday as
the next front moves south of the area.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
not anticipated at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
305 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 AM     FLOOD            1 NNE OWENS CROSSROADS  34.60N 86.45W
08/10/2017                   MADISON            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NORTH AND SOUTH BOUND LANES OF HIGHWAY 431
            AT CAVE SPRING RD CLOSED DUE TO WATER
            COVERING THE ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
509 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 AM     FLOOD            HARVEST                 34.85N 86.74W
08/10/2017                   MADISON            AL   PUBLIC

            WATER COVERING THE ROAD AT THE INTERSECTION
            OF FORD'S CHAPEL AND KELLY'S WAY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
559 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 AM     FLOOD            HARVEST                 34.86N 86.75W
08/10/2017                   MADISON            AL   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER COVERING THE ROAD AT THE INTERSECTION
            OF WALL TRIANA AND FORD CHAPEL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
603 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNE HARVEST           34.88N 86.73W
08/10/2017                   MADISON            AL   911 CALL CENTER

            MCKEE RD JUST SOUTH OF TONEY RD IS
            CONSIDERED IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOWING WATER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
608 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NE HARVEST            34.90N 86.67W
08/10/2017                   MADISON            AL   911 CALL CENTER

            THE INTERSECTION OF PULASKI PIKE AND TONEY
            RD IS CONSIDERED IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOWING
            WATER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
621 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E HARVEST             34.86N 86.72W
08/10/2017                   MADISON            AL   911 CALL CENTER

            THE INTERSECTION OF HARVEST RD AND HIGHWAY
            53 IS CONSIDERED IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOWING
            WATER.

&&