Special Weather Statement, NWS Hanford, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
415 AM PST Sun Mar 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Wet, cooler and gusty today as a storm system moves through the
region. Precipitation will diminish tonight though a few light
showers will remain possible north of Fresno County into Monday.
Dry weather and a warming trend are expected from Tuesday through
Friday, then another storm system is possible next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite water vapor imagery shows the cold upper low spinning
off the Washington coast with the associated trough digging south
along the California coast. Regional radar shows the leading band
of precip from Cambria northeast to Yosemite, though there is not
much over the San Joaquin Valley due to rain shadowing. Automated
rain gauges and MRMS estimates show light precip totals thus far
with rain rates generally a tenth of an inch or less. The snow
level is currently around 5500 feet and will continue to lower
through the day. A nearly 140 KT upper jet is moving into central
CA and the strong southwest flow aloft will help provide enhanced
orographic precipitation over the southern Sierra. A Winter Storm
Warning is in effect from Yosemite NP to Kings Canyon NP where 10
to 20 inches of snow is possible above 6000 feet. A Winter Weather
Advisory is in effect for the Tulare County portion of the Sierra
where 4 to 12 inches of snow is possible. While the strong flow
aloft is favorable for precip over the Sierra, it limits rain for
the SJ Valley. Rain shadowing could keep many areas from receiving
much more than a few hundredths of an inch, especially along the
west side and south end of the valley. Some higher amounts are
possible, mainly along the east side of the valley. A few areas
could see around a quarter of an inch to perhaps isolated amounts
of one half of an inch. Colder air aloft will move in and bring
increased instability for a slight chance for thunderstorms with
small hail north of Kern County this afternoon.

Snow levels will fall to around 3000 feet north of Kern County by
late afternoon. But the trough axis will have shifted east with
the flow aloft turning northwesterly by that time. This will end
the widespread orographic precip with scattered light showers
gradually diminishing through the evening. Snow levels will plunge
all the way down to around 2000 feet overnight. While most areas
will see little if any accumulation, a few foothill locations
could see an inch or two. Snow levels in the Kern County mountains
are forecast to be around 4000 feet this evening, then 3000 feet
overnight. Some light snowfall is possible along the passes, but
do not expect much more than a dusting.

Winds will continue to increase today with strong gusts to around
55 mph in the Kern County Desert, where a Wind Advisory remains in
effect. Once the front moves through later this morning, northwest
gusts to around 30 mph will occur over parts of the SJ Valley into
the afternoon. Winds will diminish rather quickly this evening.

High pressure from the eastern Pacific will begin to build in on
Monday and shift the storm track north, but a few light showers
will remain possible north of Fresno County. Dry conditions and a
warming trend will push temperatures to a little above normal by
Thursday. The medium range models are showing a little better
agreement in another system affecting central CA next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Precipitation and low clouds will spread south over the region today
resulting in increased areas of MVFR, with local mountain obscuring
IFR conditions in the higher terrain. Wind gusts over 60 KTS will
occur over the Sierra crest. Gusts to 50 KTS are possible across the
Kern County mountain and desert areas after 18Z today. Otherwise,
VFR conditions can be expected across the central CA interior during
the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening CAZ097.

Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening CAZ096.

Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST this evening
CAZ095-098-099.

&&

public...DCH
avn/fw...DS
synopsis...DCH

weather.gov/hanford

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