River Flood Warning 1, NWS Hanford, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
445 AM PST Sat Jan 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Periods of heavy rain and high Sierra snow will
continue over the central California interior through Sunday
night. Much of next week will be mild and wet as storm
systems track inland from the Pacific.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Short Term(Today through Tuesday night)...An abundance of
tropical moisture aloft is streaming eastward into central
California this morning, and it will continue to do so for the
next 12 to 18 hours as a strong moisture laden jet resides over
the CWA. The orographic regions perpendicular to this jet
(generally the west slope of the Sierra) will receive heavy
precipitation totals during this time. The advection of warm air
aloft will raise snow levels to 9,000 feet or higher by late this
afternoon. Above this elevation, snow will fall by the foot over
the high Sierra through tonight. Rain in the lower elevations
above the San Joaquin Valley floor will be heavy at times through
at least this evening. Folks living near small streams and rivers
and near wildfire burn scars should remain alert for rising
waters, possible mud and debris flows and road flooding through
tonight. This not only includes the Sierra foothills but also the
Kern County mountains. The Kern county desert and much of the San
Joaquin Valley, particularly the west side and south end, will be
somewhat rain shadowed. Winds will be gusty in these regions
through this evening. The presence of a barrier jet on the east
side of the San Joaquin Valley today will also support gusty
southeast winds mainly north of Fresno County.

The atmospheric river will shift northward into northern
California later tonight and Sunday as the upper level trough
deepens over the Pacific and an upper level ridge amplifies over
the central and southern part of the state. During this time, much
of the San Joaquin Valley in addition to Kern County will get a
break from wet weather. Precip will likely continue in the
orographic regions of the Sierra and possible across the extreme
northern parts of the San Joaquin valley. A cold front approaching
from the northwest will bring a southward shift of the atmospheric
river Sunday evening. Precip should return to Kern county late
Sunday night and continue into Monday as the cold front exits
south and east of the CWA. A slow drying, clearing trend should
take place Monday afternoon in the wake of the cold front except
in the foothills and higher elevations of the Sierra where showers
will likely continue. Snow levels will lower to about 5500 feet
in the Sierra Monday afternoon, then fluctuate little through
Tuesday night. Otherwise, a zonal flow aloft will reside over
central California through Tuesday night. Weak upper level
disturbances embedded in this flow could generate additional
showers along the west slopes of the Sierra during this time.

Extended Periods(Wednesday through next Saturday)...
Unsettled pattern continuing through Friday night as a series of
disturbances are forecast to move through the Central Ca Interior.
Models are different in their solution with timing, however none of
these systems appear to be a "major" system. The ensemble guidance
is not budging to much from keeping a chance of precip in the area
Guidance is trying to clear things out by Saturday as a ridge of
high pressure builds on over the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR conditions developing over the Sierra Nevada and foothills in
clouds and precipitation after 09z Saturday...then widespread MVFR
and areas of IFR conditions after 18z Saturday. Areas MVFR in
theTehachapi Mountains after 15z Saturday. Otherwise VFR conditions
will prevail with local MVFR visibilities in precipitation over the
central California interior during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon CAZ093>097.

Flood Watch through Monday afternoon CAZ089>092.

&&

Short term/Public...Durfee
Extended Public/avn/fw...JDB
Synopsis...Durfee

weather.gov/hanford

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
831 AM PST SAT JAN 7 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     DEBRIS FLOW      1 NNE OAKHURST          37.35N 119.64W
01/07/2017                   MADERA             CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED AT 37.347837 -119.642229.
            MUD/DIRT/ROCK REPORTED BY CHP.

&&

WP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
837 AM PST SAT JAN 7 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 AM     DEBRIS FLOW      1 NE LAKE ISABELLA      35.64N 118.47W
01/07/2017                   KERN               CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED AT 35.639262 -118.465743. SLIGHT
            ROCKSLIDE / ROCKS AND MUD IN RD.

&&

WP