Tornado Warning 176, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1245 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017

..EPIC AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING CONTINUES IN AND AROUND THE
HOUSTON AND GALVESTON AREAS...

..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES CONTINUE FOR FOR LIFE-THREATENING
CATASTROPHIC FLOODING...

.AVIATION...
The center of near-stationary TS Harvey is currently located near
Goliad, TX and is forecast to slowly drift to the south and
southeast over the next 24 hours. Rain bands will continue to periodically
come ashore and produce IFR conditions. Basically the Houston
area is a no-fly zone with Hobby and Intercontinental Airports being
closed to non emergency traffic. TAFs basically communicate MVFR
with periods of IFR cats within banding. Winds are from the
southeast and south with occasional gusts to 30 knots inside rain
bands.    44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to stream across Southeast
Texas this morning while rotating around slowly south southeastward
moving Tropical Storm Harvey. If there is any good news, it might
be that the rainfall rates in our county warning area are not as
high as they were during the catastrophic events overnight. Even
though these rains are lighter, some of them are falling on already
devastated areas and are aggravating ongoing rescue efforts.
Flash Flood Emergencies and Flash Flood Warnings remain in effect,
and we also continue to deal with rotating cells that are producing
radar indicated tornado signatures. As for the forecast update,
current thinking is that there should be a break in this morning's
activity. Additional development is anticipated this evening and
overnight by almost every model, and this batch of storms could be
the next round of very heavy rainfall. If these storms move into
or develop across already flooded areas, Harvey's epic catastrophic
flood event will only get worse. With the slow movement of Harvey
anticipated over the next several days, additional rainfall amounts
of 15 to 25 inches are expected through Friday. Any rainfall amounts
this high will lead to more catastrophic and life-threatening flooding.
Unfortunately, this event is no where close from being over.  42

HYDROLOGY... There have been record crests across numerous bayous
across southern Harris County overnight. Due to the heavy rain,
we are expecting record crests during the week ahead. 43

MARINE...
Tropical Storm Harvey will move very little in the coming days and
this will maintain a tight enough northeast to east pressure
gradient across the local waters to keep small craft advisory flags
up through at least mid week. Bands of heavy rainfall with embedded
thunderstorms will periodically track across the waters...moving in
from the south and west. Gale force wind gusts and quickly agitated
seas will occur in and around any passing strong thunderstorm cell.
Waterspouts will also be a threat within Harvey's outer bands. East
to southeast winds will range between 20 to 30 knots with average
wave heights of between 5 to 7 feet with occasional 8 to 9 foot
heights.

Extreme to strong rip currents will continue for a few more days.
Currents and river(s) discharge(s) into the bays will also remain
problematic for navigation for at least a few days (possibly into
next weekend) given this record setting rainfall that has led to
the extreme inland flooding. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      71  81  70  82  72 /  80  70  60  60  60
Houston (IAH)              73  79  72  82  74 /  80  80  70  60  70
Galveston (GLS)            76  82  77  84  78 /  80  80  70  70  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Jackson...
     Matagorda.

     Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for the following
     zones: Austin...Brazoria...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...
     Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston...Grimes...Harris...
     Houston...Jackson...Liberty...Madison...Matagorda...
     Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...
     Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Waters from Freeport
     to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters
     from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
621 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-281200-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-
Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM-
Colorado-Fort Bend-Galveston-Galveston Bay-Grimes-Harris-Houston-
Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-Matagorda Bay-Montgomery-Polk-
San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM-
Wharton-
621 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR LIFE-THREATENING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING....

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Periods of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall can be expected
across the area today and tonight as Tropical Storm Harvey remains nearly
stationary. An additional 2 to 4 inches of rain is likely, and 10 to
12 inches are possible with these storms. Any rain falling on locations
that have already received record breaking rainfall will be devastating.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Harvey is expected to meander in and around the Southeast Texas area
for several days and produce round after round of showers and thunderstorms.
Additional life-threatening rainfall totals of 15 to 25 inches with
isolated higher amounts are possible across the Flash Flood Watch area
over the next several days, and results will be devastating if any
of these rains fall where catastrophic flooding has already occurred.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters will be needed through at least the first half of the week.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
329 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 PM     TORNADO          1 S STAFFORD            29.61N  95.56W
08/26/2017                   FORT BEND          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DAMAGE TO 28 HOMES REPORTED IN THE WOODLAND WEST
            SUBDIVISION

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1700398

MH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
337 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NE SOUTH HOUSTON      29.69N  95.20W
08/26/2017                   HARRIS             TX   PUBLIC

            HIGHT WATER NEAR SOUTHMORE - PASADENA BLVD TO SHAVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1700399

KM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW PASADENA           29.65N  95.17W
08/26/2017                   HARRIS             TX   PUBLIC

            HIGH WATER NEAR PRESTON - FAIRMONT TO VISTA

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1700400

KM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
339 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE SOUTH HOUSTON      29.65N  95.21W
08/26/2017                   HARRIS             TX   PUBLIC

            HIGH WATER IN VISTA AT SHAFER

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1700401

KM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NNE SOUTH HOUSTON     29.70N  95.21W
08/26/2017                   HARRIS             TX   PUBLIC

            HIGH WATER IN THE 800-1100 BLOCK OF MAIN

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1700402

KM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
342 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W PASADENA            29.66N  95.18W
08/26/2017                   HARRIS             TX   PUBLIC

            HIGH WATER AT BAYSHORE HOSPITAL AND INTERSECTION OF
            STRAWBERRY AND FAIRMONT

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1700403

KM