Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

815 
WWUS54 KHGX 171939
SVSHGX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
239 PM CDT MON APR 17 2017

TXC239-321-171948-
/O.CAN.KHGX.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-170417T2000Z/
Jackson TX-Matagorda TX-
239 PM CDT MON APR 17 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN MATAGORDA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However heavy rain is
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 2864 9655 2865 9651 2861 9648 2865 9647
      2868 9647 2860 9644 2859 9645 2862 9638
      2863 9637 2864 9642 2872 9641 2871 9653
      2868 9653 2866 9652 2872 9659 2890 9638
      2866 9622 2858 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 242DEG 11KT 2872 9638 

$$

Hathaway

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

.AVIATION...
Looking for increasing SHRA/TSRA coverage as temperatures continue to
warm this afternoon. Could see some low ceilings/visibilities and
maybe even some SHRA/TSRA overnight as leftover boundaries possibly
interact with each other, but think better storm chances will
come during the day tomorrow.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017/

UPDATE...
Isolated showers are beginning to develop across the coastal
counties as convective temperatures in the mid 70s have been
reached this morning, with a line of thunderstorms approaching the
coastal waters from the west. Short term guidance is not handling
the evolution of this complex well (placing the complex too far
north and weakening it too quickly) and with infrared satellite
showing at least some modest cloud top cooling within the northern
extent of the line, have increased rain chances for the coastal
waters through the remainder of the day (30-40 PoPs) as the line
translates east.

Continued heating through the morning hours as well as additional
lift brought by the shortwave responsible for this morning's
thunderstorm line will result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. With precipitable water values
1.2-1.4 inches this afternoon and 850-300 MB winds indicating
storm motions less than 10 knots, the threat for locally heavy
rainfall will exist in stronger thunderstorms. Minor updates were
also made to temperatures and dew points based on observations,
with highs this afternoon again climbing into the low to mid 80s.

Huffman

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor & radar imagery show a shortwave and associated storm
complex making its way eastward into south Texas early this morning.
The shortwave should gradually move closer to southwest portions
of our CWA late today. This feature, any remnant outflows, daytime
heating and the seabreeze could all trigger some scattered precip
later in the day. Not everyone will see rain and the overall
severe wx threat in the form of organized storms should be fairly
low. However, boundary collisions and overall slow storm motions
could cause some localized spikes in storm strength and rain
rates. (Saw this scenario in Polk County yesterday with some
estimated localized 1-4" amounts). We'll also need to keep an eye
on the convection moving thru OK & AR as some of the higher res
guidance shows some of this trying to backdoor into our NE zones
early this evening.

The upper level disturbance will linger along the upper & middle
Tx coast thru Tuesday...bringing continued chances of scattered
precip. An upper level ridge will begin building in from the
southwest on Wed and nudge this impulse southward. Rain chances
will start diminishing, but be not completely eliminated, during
the second half of the work week.

The next cold front is still penciled in to move across the
region during the day Saturday. The latest medium range guidance
takes the trajectory of the parent trof further north & east than
what they've been depicting in past days. The front itself should
still make it through without much difficulty, but may need to
reevaluate the advertised pops & potential capping situation
should this trend persist. 47

MARINE...
Not a lot of changes with the marine forecast for these next several
days as high pressure to the east helps to keep a light/moderate on-
shore flow in place across the upper Texas coastal waters. Scattered
showers will be possible across the bays/nearshore waters this after
noon. Otherwise, will not expecting Caution/Advisory conditions thru
much of the week. Extended models are still keeping the passage of a
strong a cold front in for Sat...with strong offshore winds develop-
ing in its wake for the rest of the upcoming weekend. Caution/Advis-
ory flags may be possible at this time. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      83  66  83  67  84 /  40  30  30  10  20
Houston (IAH)              83  67  83  68  84 /  40  20  50  10  20
Galveston (GLS)            81  72  81  72  81 /  30  20  30  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...42

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1002 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-181515-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
1002 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through this
evening and may be capable of locally heavy rainfall. Stronger
thunderstorms may also be capable of small hail or gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible again Tuesday
and may be capable of locally heavy rainfall. Stronger
thunderstorms may also be capable of small hail or gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-181515-
Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM-
Galveston Bay-Matagorda Bay-
Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM-
1002 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A line of thunderstorms moving across the coastal waters today may
result in gusty winds or small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
154 PM CDT MON APR 17 2017

TXZ210-211-226-235-236-171945-
Wharton TX-Colorado TX-Jackson TX-Matagorda TX-Austin TX-
154 PM CDT MON APR 17 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN
WHARTON...JACKSON...WEST CENTRAL AUSTIN AND WEST CENTRAL MATAGORDA
COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 152 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Weimar to Schicke Point. Movement was
northeast at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
El Campo, Edna, Palacios, Columbus, Weimar, Ganado, La Ward, Schicke
Point, Lolita, Blessing, Cordele, Vanderbilt, Louise, Midfield,
Sheridan, Altair, Nada, Lake Texana Dam, Frelsburg and Garwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2998 9654 2872 9604 2860 9643 2863 9637
      2872 9641 2867 9654 2870 9657 2863 9656
      2861 9648 2863 9647 2868 9647 2859 9645
      2860 9647 2862 9657 2862 9658 2921 9673
      2934 9656 2963 9687
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 219DEG 22KT 2973 9674 2862 9634

Hathaway