Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1127 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.AVIATION...
Just minor tweaks for the 6z TAFs compared to the previous set.
Most fcsts were already updated for estimates as to when the
leading edge of storms currently in cntl will be moving into SE Tx
overnight. Moderate to heavy rain & perhaps 25-40kt gusts
expected along the initial boundary followed by several hours of
light to occasional moderate rainfall during the day Mon. Did
bring in some more favorable aviation conditions in the mid/late
afternoon hours. There's a chance we fog up tomorrow night w/
light winds & wet grounds. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/
More models are jumping on board with the Texas Tech WRF in
showing a little earlier arrival of the approaching system
overnight tonight. Current thinking puts the onset of showers and
storms to around 1 to 4 am for the Brazos Valley down to Matagorda
Bay, 3 to 6 am for the Houston metro, and 5 to 8 am for Liberty
County and around Galveston Bay. Of course, this is just the
onset, and showers and storms will likely impact SE Texas for much
of the day tomorrow. Some models including the HRRR are
suggesting the formation of a surface boundary which could be a
focus for training storms and heavier rainfall. Confidence on
where this boundary ends up focusing the heaviest rainfall is low.
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for much of SE Texas from 3
am to 4 pm. 11/47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      64  72  57  76  55 / 100  70  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)              69  72  61  76  59 /  80 100  30  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            68  70  63  72  62 /  60 100  50  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch from 3 AM CST Monday through Monday afternoon
     for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria...Brazos...
     Burleson...Chambers...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston...
     Grimes...Harris...Jackson...Liberty...Madison...Matagorda...
     Montgomery...San Jacinto...Walker...Waller...Washington...
     Wharton.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CST Monday for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST Monday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20
     NM.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
400 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-201000-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
400 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Patchy fog and light drizzle will reduce visibility this morning
to less than 3 miles. A few areas could experience locally dense
fog with visibility below a 1/2 mile at times. Use caution if
driving this morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

An upper level trough will approach the state tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop around midnight and
overspread the region. A few of the storms could become strong
west of a Crockett to Houston to Bay City line with gusty winds
and small hail. However, The primary hazard will be heavy rain.
At this time...the heaviest rain is expected to fall between 3 AM
and 9 AM with light to moderate rain lingering into the afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late tonight into early Monday.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-201000-
Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM-
Galveston Bay-Matagorda Bay-
Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM-
400 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Sea fog will be possible through tonight. Visibility could fall
below a mile at times.

A storm system will bring additional showers and thunderstorms
late tonight. A few of the storms could be strong with heavy rain
reducing visibility and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A storm system will bring additional showers and thunderstorms
on Monday. A few of the storms could again be strong with heavy
rain reducing visibility and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.