Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1020 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The MCV appeared to be slowly drifting eastward toward Washington
County at 9:30 PM. High res models were showing the possibility
of redevelopment east and south of the MCV tonight. The caveat is
that each model has a different solution as to its location and
track through the night. The HRRR looks to be verifying best so
far this evening. The latest NAEFS climatological percentile PW
has SE Texas in the 97th to 99th percentile tonight. The PW of
1.50 inches agrees with the 00Z CRP sounding.

Given the latest HRRR model runs and the input from the other
high res models, have tweaked the POPs upward for the remainder of
tonight. Also adding locally heavy rainfall to those areas with
rain chances 60 percent or greater through mid morning Tuesday.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017/

AVIATION.../00Z TAF/
Short term forecasting for TAFs will lean heavily on GOES 16
data, radar imagery and surface analysis due to a mesoscale
convective vortex (MCV) moving into the area spawned from last
night's convection across south Texas. Also we have a cold pool
driven outflow boundary with a line of showers and storms moving
towards SE Texas from central Texas. Convective allowing models
provide at least some guidance but it does not take much for storm
mode and evolution to change on the mesoscale.

Trends for this evening's convection should be downward and
expect convection to be dissipating through 02-03Z. There should
be a break in activity but with the MCV convection may start up
mid morning so trended TAFs in that direction. KCLL/KUTS may be
impacted by outflow this evening as well which is not mentioned in
TAFs. These may need to be amended depending upon convective
trends with activity to the north. MVFR ceilings are forecast for
the morning hours 09-15Z but will depend upon convection. Given
cloud cover already over much of the area I have a hard time
thinking IFR/fog will develop.

Models show the MCV getting stretched out tomorrow but there
should be plenty of lift with it along with moisture. Locally
there should be 1.5 to 1.8 inches of precipitable water so it may
not take much heating to trigger convection given available lift
and outflow boundary present. TAFs will carry VCTS for most of
tomorrow with hopes of fine tuning possible rounds of TSRA with
future TAF updates.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      66  83  67  84  67 /  70  50  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)              67  83  68  84  68 /  60  60  10  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            72  81  72  80  73 /  40  50  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1002 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-181515-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
1002 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through this
evening and may be capable of locally heavy rainfall. Stronger
thunderstorms may also be capable of small hail or gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible again Tuesday
and may be capable of locally heavy rainfall. Stronger
thunderstorms may also be capable of small hail or gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-181515-
Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM-
Galveston Bay-Matagorda Bay-
Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM-
1002 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A line of thunderstorms moving across the coastal waters today may
result in gusty winds or small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
133 AM CDT TUE APR 18 2017

TXZ237-180715-
Brazoria TX-
133 AM CDT TUE APR 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY
UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

At 133 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Danbury, or near Angleton, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Northern Angleton, Danbury, Liverpool and Chocolate Bayou.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2918 9545 2942 9533 2929 9512 2924 9509
      2908 9528
TIME...MOT...LOC 0633Z 214DEG 7KT 2919 9532

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