Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
305 PM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms moved across SE TX
today and for the most part, the storms behaved themselves with
locally heavy but not excessive rainfall. PW values remain high
tonight with values remaining around 2.00-2.20 inches. There
should be break in the precip this evening but some regeneration
looks likely between 09-12z as another vort lobe moves into SE TX.
Upper level winds remain diffluent but not quite as strongly as
today. Fcst soundings look to be most saturated Thursday morning
with some drying noted in the aftn with even some weak capping
developing over the NW part of the area during the aftn. Will
taper PoPs lower over the NW and higher toward the coast/southern
half. On Friday, a weak cold front will inch its way toward the
northern half of the region but probably stall just north of the
area. The feature looks strong enough for showers and storms to
develop especially over the northern half of the area Friday
afternoon. Further south, fcst soundings show some drier air in
the 850-700 mb layer and a weak cap near 800 mb. The weekend is
showing some mixed signals as PW values remain 2.00 inches but
convective temps warm into the lower 90s. Upper level winds not
looking quite as diffluent so other than daytime heating and a
weak sea breeze, not seeing a well defined trigger to increase
PoPs.

PW values perk back up next Monday with values once again
exceeding 2.20 inches. Despite the higher PW air, fcst soundings
show dry air in the 850-700 layer and also below 850 mb. A well
defined upper level disturbance over North Texas will provide a
glancing blow to the region but again, having trouble finding a
trigger for widespread shra/tsra. Will maintain chance PoPs but
confidence is low. Upper level ridging will try to expand into
Texas from the east next Tues-Thu with a weak inverted upper
trough sliding westward beneath the ridge. It looks like this
feature will remain south of the HGX CWA but it could bring some
isolated shra/tsra to the region as moisture levels briefly
increase. 43

&&

.MARINE...
Mainly light south winds (sometimes more variable and
stronger in/around shower and thunderstorm activity)
can be expected through the end of the week. A better
onshore flow with south winds generally in a 10 to 15
knot range and increasing seas are anticipated over
the weekend and into the start of next week under a
slightly tighter pressure gradient. At this time, both
winds a seas are expected to remain under caution
levels.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      74  92  75  95  77 /  40  30  20  30  20
Houston (IAH)              76  91  78  94  77 /  40  50  20  40  20
Galveston (GLS)            80  89  82  89  82 /  50  50  40  40  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-031145-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
637 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible across
Southeast Texas today. Deep moisture from the Gulf along with a
strong upper level disturbance approaching from the north will
help to produce these storms. Some of these thunderstorms will be
capable of brief heavy rain. Rainfall totals should average from
1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 3 to 5 inches possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across Southeast Texas
Thursday through Monday. Some of these thunderstorms may be
capable of brief heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-031145-
Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM-
Galveston Bay-Matagorda Bay-
Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM-
637 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the Upper Texas
coastal waters today. Some of these thunderstorms may be capable
of producing locally higher winds and waves.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the Upper Texas
coastal waters through Monday. Some of these thunderstorms may be
capable of producing locally higher winds and waves.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2017

TXZ199-200-213-021800-
Liberty TX-Harris TX-Montgomery TX-
1234 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 1233 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kingwood, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm. Heavy
rainfall can also be expected with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Humble, southwestern Liberty, Dayton, Kingwood, Roman Forest,
Woodbranch, Plum Grove, Kenefick, Dayton Lakes, Lake Houston,
northern Atascocita, New Caney and Porter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If on or near Lake Houston, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3002 9530 3019 9525 3015 9481 2989 9488
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 282DEG 13KT 3009 9520

Hathaway