Flash Flood Warning 107, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
707 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

.AVIATION...
Winds and clouds rotating along the western edge of Harvey will
occansionally go MVFR...but VFR ceilings should be today's
general theme. A modest northwest to west breeze that should
slowly back through the period. Maybe some light precipitation
early in the day for more easterly terminals...but too light and
sporadic to mention within the TAF. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Eastern portions of the region will see some periods of rain
today in association with the western periphery of Harvey. But
light rates are generally expected and shouldn't worsen or create
any new flood issues. We went ahead and canceled all tropical
related watches and warnings west of High Island. Water levels will
probably remain at least slightly elevated for quite a while due
to higher than normal river/bayou discharge and runoff.

**There's one important thing we'd still like to strongly
 emphasize now that the wx is becoming more favorable. Sight-
 seeing hard hit and flooded areas is still strongly discouraged.
 As we learned from previous events including the aftermath of TS
 Allison in 2001 - it's just as easy to lose your life trying to
 walk or drive into flood waters even when it's not raining!

Harvey should trek northeastward in the coming days and leave some
much needed rain-free days across the area needed to begin
recovery.

Deeper Gulf moisture gradually moves back into the region later in
the weekend and early next week along with a corresponding increase
of rain chances. 47

&&

MARINE...
Tropical Storm Harvey has made landfall over southwestern Louisiana
this morning. As a result this has allowed tropical storm conditions
to fall to Small Craft Advisory levels over the local waters. The
backside pressure gradient trailing the northeast-exiting Harvey
should remain tight enough through the day to produce at least SCEC
conditions through the evening hours...especially over the waters
along and east of a Freeport line. Seas are currently running 6 to 9
feet this morning and will gradually subside with the weakening wind
to 2 to 3 feet this evening. Nearshore water levels are running 2 to
3 feet. River and bayou drainage will keep ship channel levels
substantially higher for several days. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      88  70  90  70  91 /  10   0   0  10  10
Houston (IAH)              83  72  91  72  91 /  30  10   0  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            83  76  89  78  88 /  40  10   0  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay...Waters
     from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 10 AM this morning to 4
     PM CDT this afternoon for the following zones: Coastal
     waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20
     NM...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 4 PM CDT this afternoon
     through this evening for the following zones: Coastal
     waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston
     Bay...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

Discussion...47
Aviation/Marine...31

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
557 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-311100-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
557 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Sight seeing hard hit and flooded areas is still strongly
discouraged. As we learned from previous events including the
aftermath of TS Allison in 2001 - trying to walk or drive into
flood waters can still be deadly even when it is not raining!
Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Rain chances will increase late this weekend into early next week
as deep Gulf moisture moves back into the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-311100-
Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM-
Galveston Bay-Matagorda Bay-
Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM-
557 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Elevated winds and seas will persist and Small Craft Advisories
are in effect. Slowly improving conditions are expected later
tonight as Harvey moves further northeast of the region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

After improving conditions late in the week and weekend, winds
and seas will increase early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.