Small Craft Advisory 9, NWS Gray, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
938 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will bring fair weather through Tuesday
morning. Low pressure moves out of the Great Lakes late tuesday
then redevelops off the mid Atlantic coast by early Wednesday.
This system will bring snow, with some mixed precipitation to the
area before exiting the region late Wednesday. High pressure will
then build in for the remainder of the week, with above normal
temperatures expected. A weak low pressure system may affect the
region this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 pm update: High clouds continue spilling across southern NH
and extreme southwest ME otherwise mostly clear conditions
elsewhere. Latest mesonet data shows temp forecast on track with
only minor tweaks. No other changes needed.

655 pm update: High clouds have spilled into southern NH and
southwest ME ahead of the approaching system so minor adjustments
to cloud forecast otherwise based on latest input of mesonet data
no other changes needed at this time.

Previous Discussion:
At 19z...a 1032 millibar high pressure ridge was draped along the
coastal plain from the DELMARVA through New England. a 1003
millibar low was over Quebec with an associated warm front
bringing a few clouds from international border through northern
Maine. For tonight...a trailing cold front with the passing Quebec
low will drop into northern areas with a few clouds. Otherwise...a
mainly clear and cold night under the surface ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Concerning the arrival of the late Tuesday storm system...the split
flow regime is proving to be problematic as models are having a
tough time with interaction of northern and southern stream energy
and exactly how much phasing will ultimately occur. Warmer air
will try to sneak in initially before the secondary low takes over
and draws colder air back southward. Any mixing with sleet or rain
will help to hold down snow totals over extreme southern New Hampshire
as well as along the southwest Maine coast. Models do hint at cold
air damming and just inland on the cold side of where the coastal
front ultimately sets up we'll see potentially higher snow totals
as well. A model blend yields the highest QPF from southern New
Hampshire into adjacent southwest Maine with amounts dropping off
quickly further north and east. The potential exists for a band
of 6 inch snows from southern New Hampshire into extreme southwest
Maine and have opted for a winter storm watch from the lakes
region southward in New Hampshire and adjacent southwest interior
Maine. The coast will likely see more mix and lower snow totals
and have opted to not issue a watch there for now. We'll see some
sun early ahead of the system with highs rebounding to the upper
20s to mid 30s during the afternoon. Snow arrives over far
southern and western sections towards dusk and may start as rain
or a mix of rain and snow where boundary layer temperatures are
several degrees above freezing.

For Tuesday night...steadier precipitation spreads north and east
across the remainder of the region. With the exception of extreme
southern New Hampshire as well as near the coast...we should be
could enough for snow. Southern sections will see a mix going to
snow in many locations as the secondary low develops over the mid
atlantic region and draws colder air back into the area. Precipitation
will quickly taper off to snow showers by Wednesday afternoon as
the low slides well offshore to our south. However...the lingering
onshore flow and a surface trough could provide some light drizzle
or freezing drizzle for a time after the steadier precipitation
ends.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure departs on Wednesday night but another quickly
approaching short wave trough may bring scattered snow showers,
especially to the mountains, and this may continue through
Thursday morning. High pressure then moves in Thursday afternoon
through Friday night. Another weak system then looks to affect the
region during the day on Saturday with rain or snow showers.
Thereafter an even more amplified/blocky upper air pattern looks
to take shape across the U.S. which will lead to lower confidence
here in terms in sensible weather. However, there is some early model
and ensemble consensus for the potential for a significant
precipitation event early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through Wednesday/...VFR, then lowering to IFR aft
22z Tue in SN/IP/RA. Some -FZRA is psb over SW NH Tue night. On
Wed...conditions gradually improving to MVFR by afternoon.

Long Term...MVFR to VFR Wednesday night into Thursday morning in
snow showers. VFR Thursday afternoon through Friday. Some MVFR may
reappear on Saturday in light snow and rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Wednesday/...Winds have diminished below SCA
conditions over all but the eastern most outer waters. Have
dropped the SCA's except for the eastern outer waters where the
SCA will continue until 05z at which time winds should diminish.

Previous Discussion:  SCA continues for outer waters
through evening as SW flow surges briefly to around 25 kt and
pushes seas up to 5 ft. We drop briefly below SCA late tonight
and Tuesday before NE flow increases seas and winds outside the
bays to small craft for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Long Term...Small craft conditions will gradually begin to subside
Wednesday night and continue subsiding Thursday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
     afternoon for MEZ018-019.
NH...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
     afternoon for NHZ005>013-015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ150.

&&

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