Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Gray, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1009 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push east through the region today and
offshore overnight. A secondary cold front will settle south
into the region on Sunday and will lift north as a warm front on
Monday. A cold front will approach from the north on Tuesday
and will drop south through the region Tuesday night. High
pressure will build in from the northwest on Wednesday and will
shift offshore Wednesday night. A warm front will lift northeast
into the region Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930am update... First line of storms moving in from Vermont
towards Coos county NH has mainly weakened over the past few
hours but may still produce a few gusty winds. The main threat
for the afternoon will be a bit further south a bit later in the
day as cells currently over Albany NY move eastwards. Have
added damaging winds and large hail wording to the area that is
currently seeing sun, from NH south of the notches through the
coastal plain of Maine. Precipitation amounts will be highest
across the north with basin averaged amounts less than 0.5".
Still some concern for a few isolated cells dropping up to 2"
but would be over a very small area.

6 AM Update...
Convection causing wind damage are moving across northern New
York as well as southeastern Canada. The strongest cells were
located over the North Country of New York State and were moving
into the Mohawk Valley. Speed tools indicate these storms are
still several hours away assuming they hold together...perhaps
as early as 10-11 AM for northwestern NH. PoPs as well as
temperatures were adjusted for latest data.

Previous discussion...
Surface analysis show low pressure moving through the Gulf of
Maine and into the Canadian Maritimes. Precipitation associated
with this system had moved east of the region. Clouds and low
level moisture remained with southerly winds bringing dew points
into the 60s into the area. Also in the vicinity were a pre-
frontal trough and a stationary front was located over southern
Quebec and entered the United States over the Great Lakes. This
boundary will push east and south today triggering widespread
thunderstorms and showers.

Storms should organize along the boundary and move into northern
sections by 11 AM or so before shifting south throughout the
afternoon and evening. Instability will be enough for some
strong cells with SW winds bringing temps into the 70s and
80s... but shear will be lacking especially in the lower levels.
Therefore expecting garden variety storms with a chance for
small hail, gusty winds, and very heavy rainfall as cells train
along the boundary. A few storms will be strong with the
potential for damaging winds and or/marginally severe hail.

PW values jump to over an inch and a half along the front. As a
cold pool forms a broken squall line will develop for the
majority of the event before shifting offshore this evening. QPF
looks highest for the mountains where more forcing will be
initially...but individual storms will pose an urban and small
stream/flash flood potential as they dump lots of rain in a
short amount of time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Temperatures during the overnight hours will range from the mid
50s north and west to lower 60s south and east. Some fog is
expected to develop especially over areas where there is heavy
rain. Drier and cooler air moves in behind the system with dew
points dropping into the 40s in the mountains during the day
Sunday. Mostly sunny skies will prevail with a few additional
clouds for the higher terrain in upslope flow. Light showers
may develop near the Canadian border in the heat of the day as
another cold front approaches. Temperatures will warm into the
70s north to lower to mid 80s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold front will settle south into the region and stall over the
area Sunday night. Moisture starved boundary may produce a few
showers in the north but most areas will only see variable clouds
overnight. Lows overnight will range through the 50s to near 60.

Stalled frontal boundary will lift north as a warm front Monday
and Monday night. Front will be the focus for scattered showers
and some afternoon thunderstorms mainly in central and northern
zones. High temps across the north will range through the 70s
and in the lower to mid 80s south. Convection will gradually
taper to showers Monday night with best chance of rain in
northern zones. Lows will range from the mid 50s north to the
mid 60s south.

A cold front will approach from the northwest on Tuesday with
a pre-frontal trough swinging in from the west during the
afternoon. PWAT's approaching 1.5 inches will add plenty of
fuel to the mix and moderate shear may result in some stronger
cells producing wind damage and small hail. Highs on Tuesday
will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s.

Showers and thunderstorms will come to an end Tuesday evening
as the front pushes offshore. Looking for clear skies overnight
with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

High pressure will build in from the northwest on Wednesday
bringing cooler and less humid air into the region. Looking for
mostly sunny skies with highs from the lower 70s north to the
lower 80s south. High pressure will crest over the area
Wednesday night before moving offshore. Should see mostly clear
skies with lows in the 50s to near 60.

Warm front will approach from the southwest Thursday bringing
increasing clouds and a chance of afternoon showers. Highs will
range through the 70s. Warm front will lift northeast into the
region Thursday night and will remain the focus for occasional
showers overnight.

Low pressure moving east through southern Quebec on Friday will
drive a cold front toward the region producing another round of
showers and thunderstorms in another warm and soupy airmass.
Showers and thunderstorms Friday evening will gradually end as
the front pushes offshore by Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...A mix of stratus, fog, and mid level clouds is
spread across northern New England this morning as low level
moisture increases. Periods of LIFR/IFR are possible for a few
hours this morning mostly due to stratus. Showers and
thunderstorms will form along a southward moving cold front
today with VFR ceilings. Patchy fog is likely tonight some of
which may be IFR. Conditions improve Sunday morning as drier
air arrives. HIE may have another chance of -TSRA late Sunday.

Long Term...VFR Sunday night through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Criteria for seas and winds will not be met for the
most part. We may see seas touch 5 ft over the far outer eastern
waters early Sunday morning, but it will be brief.

Long Term...SCAs for seas may be needed on Tuesday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Curtis
SHORT TERM...Hanes
LONG TERM...Sinsabaugh
AVIATION...
MARINE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gray ME
1050 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>015-091500-
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Oxford-
Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior York-
Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-
Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-
Northern Coos-Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-
Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-
Strafford-Cheshire-Eastern Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham-
Coastal Rockingham-Western And Central Hillsborough-
1050 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, south central Maine,
southwest Maine, west central Maine, western Maine, New Hampshire,
central New Hampshire, northern New Hampshire and southern New
Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a marginal risk for a severe thunderstorms across New
Hampshire and western Maine through this evening. Some storms may
produce hail, damaging winds, and very heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop Tuesday as a cold front
approaches from the west. Some storms may produce damaging winds and
small hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ150>154-091500-
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM-
Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
1050 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms with strong winds may cross the waters later
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
117 PM EDT SAT JUL 08 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1259 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE PETERBOROUGH       42.84N  71.93W
07/08/2017                   HILLSBOROUGH       NH   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1704130

KIMBLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
120 PM EDT SAT JUL 08 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1259 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HANCOCK                 42.97N  71.98W
07/08/2017                   HILLSBOROUGH       NH   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ON RT123

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1704131

NB

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