Coastal Flood Statement 4, NWS Gray, ME

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
1151 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system tracking up the coast will bring wintry
precipitation to the area starting mainly tonight and lasting into
Tuesday night. A cold upper trough will remain over the area
through the latter part of the week with a return to colder
temperatures. Scattered snow showers in the mountains and
foothills can be expected through the latter part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update...I know it is just the appetizer to the main course...but
first thing is first. Ocean effect snow showers continue over the
Gulf of ME...and as flow aloft begins to veer more Ely this
afternoon these will begin to drift Nwd into parts of Srn NH.
Already seeing snow showers in the observation at PSM...and so I
increased PoP in a band that will lift Nwd today. Could also see
some enhancement in the Monadnocks...as Ely flow upslope and
provides a little extra lift.

As for tonight into Tue...high pressure seems to be doing a good
job asserting itself over the region. A fresh NE breeze is
advecting mid to upper teens dewpoints into the Ern parts of the
forecast area...and skies are clearing from NE to SW. Model
guidance is starting to get the hint...and most mesoscale guidance
now cools temps near the coast as precip is ongoing tonight. That
is a concern for model forecasts calling for a lot of coastal
rain. Soundings still show a warm layer aloft...but above H8. The
NAM continues to be the only model that significantly warms this
layer enough for more freezing rain than sleet...before precip
comes to an end. The 23.06 GFS remains on the colder side...and
the 23.00z ECMWF is coldest of all. I would still like to see the
23.12z GFS and ECWMF before making a final call on winter storm
watches.

Previous Discussion:
High pressure to the north nosing south and currently pushing
some colder and drier air in the lower levels south into the area
on northeast winds. Widespread clouds are noted over southern and
central areas...but further north into the drier air some
clearing may try to develop this morning and briefly work south
into central areas for a while before the clouds to the south
move north.

Models fairly close on timing of onset of precipitation spreading
north into southern NH this afternoon. Boundary layer temps will
be marginal but evaporational cooling at the onset should change
any mixed precipitation over to snow with some light accumulations
possible over southern NH by the evening commute thus a winter
weather advisory was issued for southern areas of NH starting at 4
pm this afternoon.

Based on a blend of models adjusted temps just a few degs colder
for afternoon highs. Based on the amount of drier air working
south slowed the northward progress of precipitation. Feeling is
models trying to expand precipitation shield north into central/northern
NH and southern Maine too quickly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
All model trends are further east with the coastal low tracking
up the east coast. All models take the vertically stacked system
east of the benchmark of 40n/70w. With this more easterly track in
mind the low level winds will remain more from the north and
northeast allowing some cold air damming to continue longer
through Tuesday even along parts of the coast. BUFKIT soundings
all show much of the area with a deep warm layer that moves into
the area later tonight and Tuesday between 5000-9000 ft with
colder temps above and below this area. This will mean snow that
develops tonight will eventually change to a broad area of sleet.
Some inland areas closer to the coast will also see a band of
freezing rain developing as the closer to the coast the deeper the
warm layer will be. The northeast cold air low level damming winds
will mean that temps will struggle to get above 32 degrees...even
near the coast. Before the changeover well inland some significant
accumulationsof snow exceeding 6 inches may occur. Snowfall
ratios will be low though considering the warm layer aloft. There
is not high confidence to forecast over 6 inches of snow at this
time based on the above reasoning.

With all of the above in mind have decided to keep the winter
storm watches in place except over southern NH where we decided to
lower it to a winter weather advisory since thresholds should
remain below warning criteria. Also have issued winter weather
advisories in northern NH and coastal and some interior portions
of Maine. The reason for the advisories will be more due to
several ptypes including freezing rain with icing amounts of
.10-.15 inches.

All this mixed bag will continue through much of Tuesday except
along coastal areas of Maine and southeast NH where temps finally
should reach above 32 degs by later in the morning Tuesday while
all other areas remain at or below the 32 degree mark due to the
continued north winds as the low passes well to the east.

Generally went a little below guidance on temp forecast for
tonight and Tuesday due to synoptic situation and trends.

Will leave decisions on how to handle the watches to the day shift
as trends further develop.

Strong winds will develop along the coast later tonight and into
Tuesday and a wind advisory for that time frame may need to be
considered if trends continue.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure is expected to be located over the Gulf of Maine at
the beginning of the period with upper level low pressure nearly
overhead. This will keep at least light mixed precipitation over
the region through the first part of Tuesday night before
departing. This will include rain at the coast and a mix of snow
sleet and freezing rain inland.

A trough of low pressure moving in from the northwest Wednesday
night and Thursday with a chance of snow and rain showers during
this time. Otherwise, a rather innocuous extended period is
expected through the weekend with colder temperatures and upslope
snow showers expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tuesday/...MVFR cigs today will become
IFR/LIFR later today across southern NH in developing
precipitation and then spreading north and east tonight over the
rest of the area. The IFR/LIFR conditions should continue through
most if not all of Tuesday.

Long Term...Low pressure will be slowly departing Tuesday night.
However, IFR conditions in mixed precipitation is expected for at
least the first half of the night. Rain is expected at coastal
terminals. Otherwise, improvement in conditions is foreseen Wed
through the end of the week as the coastal storm departs.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tuesday/...Storm warnings are in effect for
tonight into Tuesday over the outer waters with gales along the
bays. Seas should reach near 20 feet by Tuesday morning over the
outer waters. By late Tuesday winds and seas will begin to
decrease as the strongest gradient winds move to the east of the
waters as the system moves slowly east.

Long Term...Winds and seas will continue to gradually decrease
Tuesday night through the end of the week. However, SCA conditions
are likely from time to time through that period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Despite being in the low portion of our astronomical tide cycle,
large building waves may produce some erosion and splash-over near
the times of high tide Tuesday. Preliminary storm surge values
appear to be around 1.5 to 2 feet with a persistent, strong
easterly wind developing. A coastal flood advisory may be needed
from the impact of the wave action on Tuesday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Watch from 7 PM EST this evening through Tuesday
     afternoon for MEZ018.
     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Tuesday evening
     for MEZ007>009-012>014-019>021.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
     Tuesday for MEZ022-024>028.
NH...Winter Storm Watch from 7 PM EST this evening through Tuesday
     afternoon for NHZ005>010.
     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Tuesday evening
     for NHZ004.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for
     NHZ001>003.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for NHZ011>013-015.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ151-153.
     Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

NEAR TERM...Legro

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
659 AM EST MON JAN 23 2017

MEZ022-024>028-240000-
INTERIOR WALDO-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-
COASTAL WALDO-
659 AM EST MON JAN 23 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MAINE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

WINDS MAY GUST BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ON THE COAST TONIGHT INTO
TUE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NHZ011>013-015-240000-
CHESHIRE-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH-
659 AM EST MON JAN 23 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 PM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MEZ007>009-012>014-019>021-NHZ004-240000-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-
KENNEBEC-NORTHERN CARROLL-
659 AM EST MON JAN 23 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MAINE...SOUTH CENTRAL
MAINE...SOUTHWEST MAINE...WEST CENTRAL MAINE...WESTERN MAINE AND
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MEZ023-NHZ014-240000-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
659 AM EST MON JAN 23 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 50 MPH ON THE COAST TONIGHT. RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MEZ018-NHZ005>010-240000-
INTERIOR YORK-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-
BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-
659 AM EST MON JAN 23 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NHZ001>003-240000-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-
659 AM EST MON JAN 23 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ151-153-240000-
PENOBSCOT BAY-CASCO BAY-
659 AM EST MON JAN 23 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ150-152-154-240000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON, ME TO PORT CLYDE, ME OUT 25 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE, ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH, ME OUT 25 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH, ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER, MA OUT
25 NM-
659 AM EST MON JAN 23 2017

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
304 PM EST MON JAN 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     SNOW             1 WNW SEABROOK          42.90N  70.90W
01/23/2017  M2.0 INCH        ROCKINGHAM         NH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1700609

ES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
407 PM EST MON JAN 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     SNOW             2 E KINGSTON            42.94N  71.01W
01/23/2017  M2.0 INCH        ROCKINGHAM         NH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CORRECTED LOCATION

EVENT NUMBER GYX1700609

ES