Wind Advisory 5, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

925 
WWUS72 KGSP 020304
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1004 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

.Behind a departing cold front, very windy conditions will 
develop tonight from the French Broad Valley northward across the 
northern Blue Ridge this evening. The strong northwest winds will 
continue into Thursday morning before diminishing by midday.

NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501-503-505-507-509-021115-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-170302T1700Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Asheville, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, 
East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, 
Old Fort, and Saluda
1004 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...From the upper reaches of the French Broad Valley 
  including Asheville and Hendersonville, northward along the 
  northern Blue Ridge of the northern North Carolina Mountains.

* HAZARDS...Very windy conditions.

* TIMING...Winds will increase behind a cold front this evening, 
  maximize overnight, and then gradually diminish through Noon 
  Thursday.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. Gusts
  will be higher at elevations above 5000 feet.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

260 
WWUS72 KGSP 020933
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
433 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2017

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

.Very windy conditions will persist early this morning from the 
French Broad Valley northward across the northern Blue Ridge. The
strong northwest winds will diminish by midday.

NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501-503-505-507-509-021700-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-170302T1700Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Asheville, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, 
East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, 
Old Fort, and Saluda
433 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* LOCATIONS...From the upper reaches of the French Broad Valley 
  including Asheville and Hendersonville, northward along the 
  northern Blue Ridge of the northern North Carolina Mountains.

* HAZARDS...Very windy conditions.

* TIMING...Winds will remain strong early this morning, and then
  gradually diminish through Noon.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Gusts 
will be higher at elevations above 5000 feet.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
227 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area tonight, followed by cool high
pressure that gradually builds in from the northwest through the end
of the week. The high will slide east of the area late in the
weekend, allowing return flow to bring above normal temperatures
back in for early next week. Another cold front approaches from the
west midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 220 PM EST: A severe thunderstorm watch is imminent for the
western Carolinas and northeast GA this afternoon.

The approaching strong cold front has reached a line from Nashville,
TN to Jackson, MS this afternoon. Deep convection ahead of this
front has developed in the rich, mid 60s dewpoint air from far
northern AL to southeast TN, with increasing support from upper
divergence associated with a 140+ kt jetlet at 300 mb. The plume of
abundant low level theta e will stretch toward the southwest part of
our forecast area through mid to late afternoon. In addition, the
more northern parts of the line advancing across TN will likely pose
a severe wind threat to the TN/NC border counties this afternoon as
well. Gusty southwest winds will continue throughout the forecast
area through late afternoon as deep mixing from the warm
temperatures will reach closer to the 40 to 50 kt low level jet
moving overhead. Warm advection gusts should be sub-advisory, but an
SPS has been issued for gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range.

The convective threat will them ramp up from the west and southwest
after 20Z for all of our area. Convection-allowing models indicate
discrete cellular development firing well southeast of the main
activity through the late afternoon hours. Still anticipate the best
mountain timing from the mainly frontal band mainly 19Z to 23Z, with
foothills timing generally 22Z to 01Z, and lower piedmont mainly 00Z
to 03Z. A pocket of fairly steep lapse rates will cross the region
with the deeper convection, permitting the capping inversion to
dissipate. It appears that best overlap of instability and shear
will affect northeast GA, the extreme southern NC mountains, and the
western SC Upstate around 21z and this is where the tornado threat
will be highest. Consensus SBCAPE values should reach 1000+ J/kg
during the peak. Sfc to 3 km bulk shear is expected to exceed 50 kt,
with sfc to 6 km values 70+ kt. A damaging wind threat will be
supported throughout the entire area through early evening as these
convective features translate east.

Cold advection winds behind the front should pick up with the
arrival of an embedded 50 kt jet from 06Z onward. A wind advisory
will be posted for the higher terrain from the French Broad Valley
northward along the Blue Ridge. The gradient will slowly relax
through Thursday as dry high pressure stretches from the southern
plains to southern Appalachians. Max temps will be some 15 to 20
degrees cooler than today in most areas, more in the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Wednesday: The ulvl pattern remains broadly
cyclonic through the period...with a strong s/w swinging by north of
the area early Fri. This wave will have little if any effect on the
FA as the sfc trof reflection is weak and very limited wrt to
moisture. The GFS does produce weak upslope -shra arnd daybreak
Fri...however all other op models remain quite dry during this time.
So...little change will be made to the PoP grids thru the
period...meaning dry conds thru Sat evening.

There will be a couple non/precip concerns however. As high pressure
builds in Fri afternoon....the p/grad will increase and a measure of
llvl CCA will enable gusty high elev mtn winds likely reaching adv
levels into the early evening. Dry cP air mixing in will also make
for low RH values Fri/Sat afternoons creating possible fire-wx
concerns. Winds should not be an issue...yet a FDS may be needed
across NE GA and the Upstate depending on fuel moisture levels.
Another concern will be for frost/freeze outside the mtns. Thu night
looks okay...even with mins reaching frost temps...as sfc winds look
to remain mixed keeping td/s rather low. Mins on Fri night should
easily reach freezing or below across the majority of the non/mtns
as the cP sfc high settles in. A freeze watch may be issued on Thu
if the cold guidance trend continues. With the expected airmass
mix...max temps will remain arnd or a bit below normal thru the
period in mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EST Wednesday: Models are in pretty good agreement on
the overall pattern to start out the medium range. An upper trough
will exit off the East Coast Saturday night thru Sunday, then a
large ridge builds in late Sunday thru Tuesday, becoming fairly
amplified. Models begin to diverge with the next trough that will
cross the Rockies and reach the Great Lakes by Tuesday night. The
12z GFS is much deeper than the 12z EC/CAN. This results in a slower
timing of the next cold front. But the 12z EC has come in a little
slower than the previous run, closer to the GFS on the front's
arrival late Tuesday. However, the EC has the upper trough quickly
dampening into zonal flow, it hangs the front up across the area
Wed-Thu. I opted to stay close to the WPC, which has PoPs ramp up a
little quicker than the GFS, but not as slow as the EC. And the
stalled front on the 12z EC is a new development, so I have PoPs
taper off by early Wednesday for now. Temps will start out seasonably
cool early Sunday, but warm back up to about 10-15 deg above normal,
with highs in the lower 70s expected across most of the Piedmont by
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A strong cold front with attendant strong to
severe convection continues to approach the southern Appalachians
from the west this afternoon. Mainly lower VFR cigs are expected
ahead of the system with MVFR cigs and possibly IFR vis developing
under the heaviest showers and thunderstorms. Still anticipate peak
thunderstorm activity across KAVL 20Z to 23Z, across the foothill
sites 21Z to 01Z, and around KCLT 22Z to 02Z. Southwest wind gusts
above 30kt at times will toggle WNW to NW throughout the region with
fropa from 02Z west to 06Z east. NW gusts post fropa will continue
into the early overnight and strengthen at KAVL through Thursday
morning with the peak of the cold advectiion.

Outlook: Drier conditions will set up behind the front from Thursday
through the weekend into early next week. A reinforcing front will
cross the region Friday, but with very limited moisture.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High  92%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High  92%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EST Thursday for
     NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
139 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

NCZ033-048>053-059-064-065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ002-003-021845-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Northern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
139 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for most of the western North
Carolina and upstate South Carolina mountains.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

See the latest Special Weather Statement for details on the windy
conditions.

As a cold front approaches the area from the west this afternoon, a
line of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will move into the
southern Appalachians. In addition to the potential for locally
heavy rain and frequent cloud to ground lightning, there will be a
threat of locally damaging winds, with the best chance for damaging
winds expected across the North Carolina counties bordering
Tennessee.

After the cold front sweeps through the area this evening, winds
will turn northwesterly and strengthen. Wind gusts of 50 mph or more
will be possible, especially near the Blue Ridge and across the
higher elevations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

..Thursday...High winds possible. Gusty northwest winds will
continue across the mountains into Thursday morning.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time..
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of damaging
winds to our office.

GAZ026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-
SCZ005>014-019-021845-
Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-
Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
139 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the piedmont of northeast
Georgia, the foothills and piedmont of western North Carolina, and
much of upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

See the latest Special Weather Statement for details on the windy
conditions.

As a cold front approaches the area late this afternoon, a line of
showers and strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to move across
the foothills and piedmont. In addition to the potential for locally
heavy rain and frequent cloud to ground lightning, there will be a
threat of locally damaging winds. An isolated weak tornado also
cannot be ruled out. The greatest threat for severe weather is
expected in northeast Georgia and Upstate South Carolina along and
west of the I-26 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...Frost/freeze possible. Temperatures are expected to
drop to near or below freezing early Saturday morning. With the
early start to the growing season, a Freeze Warning may be needed.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of damaging
winds, large hail, or tornadoes to our office.

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ058-062-063-SCZ001-004-021845-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Graham-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Oconee Mountains-Greater Oconee-
139 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for extreme northeast Georgia, the
extreme southern mountains of western North Carolina, and Oconee
County in upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

See the latest Special Weather Statement for details on the windy
conditions.

As a cold front approaches the area from the west late this
afternoon, a line of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms is
expected to move into the region. In addition to the potential for
locally heavy rain and frequent cloud to ground lightning, there will
be a threat of locally damaging winds. These thunderstorms will also
be capable of producing a few tornados. The greatest threat for
severe weather is expected across extreme northeast Georgia, the far
southern North Carolina mountains, and the extreme western Upstate of
South Carolina between 4 pm and 7 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...Frost/freeze possible. Temperatures are expected to
drop to near or below freezing early Saturday morning. With the
early start to the growing season, a Freeze Warning may be needed.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, or tornadoes to our office.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1124 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-012200-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-
Cabarrus-Union-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-
Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City,
Cornelia, Baldwin, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Boydville,
Toccoa, Royston, Whitworth, Lavonia, Franklin Springs, Canon,
Hartwell, Nuberg, Reed Creek, Elberton, Fortsonia, Middleton,
Ruckersville, Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Bethlehem, Ellendale,
Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville,
Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Faust,
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck,
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick,
Mount Mitchell State Park, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Newfound Gap,
Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Smokemont, Wesser,
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek,
Lake Junaluska, Asheville, Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens,
Salisbury, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva,
Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Nantahala Lake, Highlands,
Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River,
Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah,
Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton, Crouse, Gastonia, Charlotte,
Huntersville, Matthews, Concord, Kannapolis, Monroe, Trinity,
Indian Trail, Weddington, Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir,
Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove,
Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo,
Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Lake Lure, Forest City,
Rutherfordton, Spindale, Saluda, Tryon, Columbus, Lake Adger,
Mill Spring, Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Westminster, Pumpkintown,
Tigerville, Gowensville, Caesars Head, Cleveland, Marietta,
Seneca, Oakway, Easley, Dacusville, Clemson, Greenville, Taylors,
Greer, Mauldin, Fork Shoals, Simpsonville, Berea, Spartanburg,
Gaffney, Catawba, Rock Hill, Anderson, Abbeville, Calhoun Falls,
Laurens, Clinton, Union, Monarch Mills, Blackstock, Chester,
Cornwell, Great Falls, Ware Shoals, and Ninety Six
1124 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

...WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON...

Southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching cold front will pick
up this afternoon across the region. The winds may gust to between
30 and 40 mph at times. These winds will be strong enough to blow
over unsecured objects and possibly knock down some tree limbs.
Secure any loose objects and use caution if standing outdoors
where you can be hit by overhead falling objects.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible around this
region this afternoon and early this evening. Damaging winds will
be possible with any thunderstorms and watches and warnings could
be issued later today.

Gerapetritis