Alert archive / North Carolina / Wind Advisories in 2017
Wind Advisory 15, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this wind advisory at Nov 18, 2017, 3:53 AM EST for Habersham County, Rabun County, Georgia; 17 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at Nov 18, 2017, 4:00 PM EST. It was in force for 20 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 18, 2017, 3:53 AM EST (08:53 UTC)
- In effect from
- Nov 18, 2017, 4:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Nov 19, 2017, 12:00 PM EST
- In force
- 20 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Counties Habersham County, GA, Rabun County, GA, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Yancey County, NC
The radar
The Greer radar (KGSP), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 255 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2723 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 28 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 13 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 52 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
836 WWUS72 KGSP 180853 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 353 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 ...BRISK MOUNTAIN WINDS PICKING UP THIS AFTERNOON... .A fast-moving cold front will approach the area today. By late afternoon, wind gusts on the ridges of Western North Carolina and Northeast Georgia will become strong enough to blow down a few trees. Gusts will strengthen as a cold front passes tonight, then gradually diminishing Sunday morning. GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509- 181930- /O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0015.171118T2100Z-171119T1700Z/ Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood- Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson- Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains- McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains- Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, Old Fort, and Saluda 353 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST SUNDAY... The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a Wind Advisory, which is in effect from 4 PM this afternoon to noon EST Sunday. * LOCATIONS...The mountains and higher foothills of Western North Carolina, plus Rabun and Habersham counties in Georgia. * HAZARDS...Strong wind gusts. * TIMING...Winds will increase late this afternoon and are expected to be strongest between midnight and sunrise Sunday. * WINDS...West to northwest, 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph in lower elevations. Elevations above 3500 feet will see some gusts exceed 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. && $$ Wimberley
5 follow-up statements
172 WWUS72 KGSP 181536 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1036 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 ...BRISK MOUNTAIN WINDS PICKING UP THIS AFTERNOON... .A fast-moving cold front will approach the area today. By late afternoon, wind gusts on the high ridges of Western North Carolina and Northeast Georgia will become strong enough to blow down a few trees. Gusts will strengthen as a cold front passes tonight, then gradually diminishing Sunday morning. GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509- 182100- /O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0015.171118T2100Z-171119T1700Z/ Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood- Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson- Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains- McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains- Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, Old Fort, and Saluda 1036 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...The mountains and higher foothills of Western North Carolina, plus Rabun and Habersham counties in Georgia. * HAZARDS...Strong wind gusts. * TIMING...Winds will increase late this afternoon and are expected to be strongest between midnight and sunrise Sunday. * WINDS...Strong winds from the southwest are expected to be primarily confined to exposed peaks and ridge tops, mainly above 5000 feet this afternoon. Winds will shift to the west and northwest and increase in all areas tonight. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph appear likely in many valley locations tonight, while elevations above 3500 feet will see some gusts exceed 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 46 to 57 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult... especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. && $$ Lane
872 WWUS72 KGSP 181948 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 248 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 ...BRISK MOUNTAIN WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY... .A fast-moving cold front will approach the area this evening. Wind gusts ahead of the front will become strong enough to blow down a few trees on the high ridges of Western North Carolina and Northeast Georgia this evening. Gusts will strengthen as a cold front passes overnight, then gradually diminish Sunday morning. GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509- 190400- /O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0015.171118T2100Z-171119T1700Z/ Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood- Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson- Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains- McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains- Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, Old Fort, and Saluda 248 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...The mountains and higher foothills of Western North Carolina, plus Rabun and Habersham counties in Georgia. * HAZARDS...Strong wind gusts. * TIMING...Winds will increase across the high elevations through the evening. After a cold front passes through the area around midnight, the strong winds are expected to expand into the lower elevations, with the strongest winds expected between midnight and sunrise Sunday. * WINDS...Strong winds from the southwest are expected to be primarily confined to exposed peaks and ridge tops, mainly above 5000 feet this afternoon. Winds will shift to the west and northwest and increase in all areas tonight. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph appear likely in many valley locations tonight, while elevations above 3500 feet will see some gusts exceed 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 46 to 57 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult... especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. && $$ Lane
522 WWUS72 KGSP 190344 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1044 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 ...BRISK MOUNTAIN WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY... .A fast-moving cold front will move through the area overnight. Wind gusts ahead of the front will become strong enough to blow down a few trees on the high ridges of Western North Carolina and Northeast Georgia. Gusts will strengthen as a cold front passes overnight, then gradually diminish Sunday morning. GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509- 191200- /O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-171119T1700Z/ Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood- Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson- Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains- McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains- Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, Old Fort, and Saluda 1044 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...The mountains and higher foothills of Western North Carolina, plus Rabun and Habersham counties in Georgia. * HAZARDS...Strong wind gusts. * TIMING...Winds will increase across the high elevations through the late evening. After a cold front passes through the area around midnight, the strong winds are expected to expand into the lower elevations, with the strongest winds expected between midnight and sunrise Sunday. * WINDS...Strong westerly to northwesterly winds are expected along and behind a cold front overnight into Sunday morning. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph appear likely in many valley locations tonight, while elevations above 3500 feet will see some gusts exceed 50 to 55 mph. * IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 46 to 57 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult... especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. && $$ CDG
140 WWUS72 KGSP 190855 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 355 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 ...BRISK MOUNTAIN WINDS THIS MORNING... GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509- 191700- /O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-171119T1700Z/ Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood- Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson- Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains- McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains- Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, Old Fort, and Saluda 355 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY... * LOCATIONS...The mountains and higher foothills of Western North Carolina, plus Rabun and Habersham counties in Georgia. * HAZARDS...Strong wind gusts. * TIMING...Gusty winds will continue through the morning. * WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Elevations above 3500 feet will see some gusts exceed 50 to 55 mph. * IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power lines. Scattered power outages are expected. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 46 to 57 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult... especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. && $$
978 WWUS72 KGSP 191141 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 641 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 ...BRISK MOUNTAIN WINDS THIS MORNING... GAZ010-017-NCZ065-501-503-505-507-509-191245- /O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-171119T1700Z/ Rabun-Habersham-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains- McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains- 641 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has cancelled the Wind Advisory. Very gusty winds will continue on exposed peaks and high ridge tops through the morning, but winds will otherwise continue to diminish. $$ NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>064-191700- /O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-171119T1700Z/ Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham- Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania- Including the cities of Banner Elk, Newland, Luck, Waynesville, Tuckasegee, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, and Highlands 641 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY ABOVE 3500 FEET... * LOCATIONS...The high elevations of western North Carolina. * HAZARDS...Strong wind gusts. * TIMING...Gusty winds will continue through the morning across the high elevations, especially on exposed peaks and high ridge tops. Winds near the valley floors have subsided and will continue to do so through the morning. * WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power lines. A few power outages are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 46 to 57 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult... especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. && $$ Lane
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Nov 18, 3:43 AM EST, 10 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 18, 3:43 AM EST, 10 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
343 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture will increase over the region today, with increasing
southerly winds, until a moist cold front crosses from the west
tonight. Another large area of dry and cool high pressure will
build in Sunday and remain in place well into next week, bringing
cool but settled weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sat: A weak upper disturbance crossing NC/VA is
driving some high-based radar returns over the I-77 corridor
attm. These have not resulted at any precip reaching the ground
at the numerous obs sites they have passed over in the last couple
of hours, and should depart soon anyway.
The axis of an upper level trough extends from the Canadian prairie
south through the eastern ranges of the Rockies. A seasonably
strong low pressure system has developed in response; its center
is near Kansas City. A cold front associated with this system
will swing quickly east and is progged to enter the CWFA this
evening, and be nearly out of it by daybreak Sunday. Accordingly,
brisk southwesterly low-level flow is ongoing across the
Southeast. Isentropic lift will occur this morning, though the
winds are not ideally oriented to get a great deal of low cloud
cover developing as a result. More of interest for precip during
the day will be upslope forcing along the SW portion of the Blue
Ridge Escarpment, so it is there that PoPs ramp up first. Mostly
cloudy skies should limit insolation; will shy away from the warmer
MOS-based temps and stay a little closer to raw values. Enough
mixing is expected to bring down some noticeable wind gusts across
the whole area; gusts should easily top 20 kt in the Piedmont with
peak values closer to 30 kt. In the mountains--particularly high
elevations--the prefrontal LLJ will be tapped and gusts to 40 kt
develop as soon as 21z. We decided to hoist a Wind Advisory at that
time; we could have argued for a high-elevation product, due to a
lack of model/algorithm support for strong gusts in the valleys,
but in collaboration with neighbors it was decided to include
the entirety of the mtn zones. This advisory will run through
the night and capture the strongest post-frontal cold advective
gusts as well. The peaks above 5000 ft may see gusts reach warning
criteria at times, so there is a small chance we could end up with a
high-elevation split for a High Wind Warning on a subsequent shift.
The timing of the front has been adjusted mainly using the NAMNest,
which is quite close to the HREF mean (it being a member of the
HREF). Frontal precip is a near certainty in the northwestern
couple tiers of zones. Very strong low-level shear will accompany
the front. HREF members depict a narrow line of convection pushing
into NE GA and SW NC in the late evening. Its ensemble max SBCAPE
does exceed 100 J/kg in the vicinity of this line, so we plan to
monitor this feature closely if such a scenario verifies. That said,
Bufkit profiles indicate the convective layer will be very shallow
and thus not much of that shear will be realized, so the severe
threat is small (and may help explain why no members show high
updraft helicity). The consensus is that this line will fall apart
as it moves across the midpoint of the CWFA, so the high likely
to categorical PoPs currently do not extend further east from there.
Based temp trends tonight on hourly guidance given near-steady
trends ahead of front and rapid cooling behind it. So finally,
I'll note there is a shallow layer of moisture that remains banked
against the mountains and thus some snow accumulations are fcst
along the Tenn border. Winds are the most impressive part of the
setup, with no instability and temps not particularly cold at the
top of the layer. Hence I went with a 7:1 SLR, and snow totals
are below advisory criteria.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 AM Saturday: Cold high pressure builds in behind the
departing cold front Sunday. NW flow precip along the TN border ends
by afternoon, but clouds linger through the day. Should see clearing
skies elsewhere, but some clouds could break containment and spread
across the foothills and piedmont. Very windy conditions to start the
day across the mountains slowly diminish during the afternoon as the
pressure gradient relaxes. Should be a breezy day outside of the
mountains.
High pressure slides east across the area Monday, then offshore
Tuesday as a weak cold front crosses the MS River valley. Expect
mostly clear skies Monday with increasing clouds Monday night into
Tuesday. Weak moisture return and isentropic lift increase Tuesday
in the developing south to southwesterly low level flow. There may
be some light showers across the area as a result. For now, precip
chances remain in the slight chance category. Any precip develops
late enough in the day to be all rain.
Temps remain below normal through the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 AM EST Saturday: An upper shortwave will approach the area
Tuesday night as longwave troughing propagates towards the east
coast. At the surface, a weak wedge of high pressure will remain
over our forecast area, with the center of the surface high off the
east coast. A weak wave will pass by to our south, though it will
provide just enough of a moisture plume into Georgia and the
Carolinas for some upglide-induced precip Tuesday night over the
remnant surface wedge. The moisture will be quite shallow, but
models are in good enough agreement on some QPF response that slight
chance pops were maintained.
The evolution of the next system is again in relatively poor
agreement in global model solutions. The ECMWF, mimicking the GFS
from a few days ago, keeps the next upper impulse more open, though
it does close off a surface low over the Gulf of Mexico and
progresses it over north Florida, keeping our area dry. The GFS, now
mimicking the ECMWF solution from a few days ago, closes off a more
intense surface and upper low over the Gulf of Mexico and tracks the
low farther north, bringing precipitation to our area on Thursday
and Friday. Uncertainty is high as global models continue to poach
each others' solutions, so confidence on the forecast for late on
Thanksgiving and Black Friday is low. For now, slight chance to
chance pops were added late Thursday and Friday. With longwave
troughing approaching, temperatures will start the period near
average before dropping to near 10 degrees below average through the
end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Thick AS/CI deck is spreading into the area
from the NW, downstream of a developing cyclone in the middle of
the country. Low level warm upglide will set up later this morning
as southerly flow strengthens overhead. Guidance differs as to how
low cigs go with this pattern, and furthermore some guidance does
not develop cigs at all until much later in the day. Knowing that
models often over-forecast cigs at onset of such an event, and the
overall weak pressure advection noted on isentropic charts, led me
to favor the less restrictive GLAMP guidance this morning. Gusty
winds will develop by late morning and more or less will last
through the rest of the period. The winds will promote mixing and
cigs are expected to mix up to low VFR where they do develop at
lower levels. The cold front associated with the aforementioned
system will push rather quickly thru the area overnight tonight,
bringing a brief round of SHRA. The wind shift is timed at all
sites very near or a little after 06z and is not mentioned in this
issuance. A couple of the SHRA could be associated with highly
localized strong to even severe wind gusts, and isolated incidents
of LLWS are possible ahead of the front.
Outlook: Cold front will push east of all sites by around daybreak
Sunday, with rapid improvement in flight category behind it. Expect
VFR from then into the middle of next week, under the influence
of cold continental high pressure.
Confidence Table...
17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-12Z
KCLT High 87% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAVL High 94% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% Low 58%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 94% High 100% High 100% High 83%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to noon EST Sunday for
GAZ010-017.
NC...Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to noon EST Sunday for
NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...Carroll
AVIATION...WimberleyHazardous weather outlook, Nov 17, 4:00 AM EST, 23 hours 53 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 400 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-180900- Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham- Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson- Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains- Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains- 400 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. ..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Sunday...High winds possible. Northwest winds will increase and become very gusty behind a departing cold front late Saturday night into Sunday. Wind gusts up to 55 mph will be possible, especially across the higher elevations. ..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504- 506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-180900- Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell- Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus- Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell- Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains- Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens- Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville- Laurens-Chester-Greenwood- 400 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. ..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. ..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None.
Nearby
Wind Advisories in North Carolina, 2017Wind Advisories in Georgia, 2017Every wind advisory in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.