Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
746 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross our area tonight and become stationary from
central Georgia to eastern North Carolina Saturday night. This front
moves north as a warm front Sunday and Sunday night as low pressure
passes from Texas to across the Ohio Valley.  The front will become
stationary again across our region for much of the week with deep
moisture and periods of heavy rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 730 pm: Radar is showing the pre-frontal convective line
solidifying as it moves east across the NC foothills early this
evening. LAPS sbCAPE analysis indicates that values have risen to
about 1000 to 1500 J/kg ahead of this line across the NC piedmont,
and various mesoscale models are now depicting solid 30 to 35 kt of
surface to 6 km bulk shear out over the I-77 corridor through the
evening. Additional isolated severe thunderstorms look likely as
this system moves east through late evening, with damaging wind
gusts being the primary threat across mainly the rest of the NC
foothills and the NC piedmont. Convection may also fill in a bit
across the southern tier, both in the pre-frontal line and across
the lower piedmont with activity moving northeast out of GA.

Anticipate the surface cold front, which is still west of the
mountains, to slowly move southeast across the mountains and
foothills through the overnight hours and then settle across the
lower piedmont through the day on Saturday. Drier air will gradually
start to filter in from the northwest, but lower stratus may develop
in the W to NW flow across the mountains overnight, and some stratus
could also develop in piedmont sections before the drying arrives.
Mins should be near to just above climo overnight.

Even though the boundary will settle near, or southeast of, our srn
tier on Saturday, the moisture gradient across the boundary will be
sufficiently broad such that positive buoyancy is progged to develop
from roughly the NC/SC border southward. Diurnal frontal convection
should primarily be focused south of our area, but a slight chance
is nevertheless warranted southeast of I-85. Meanwhile, instability
should be sufficient to fire some isolated cells across the southern
Blue Ridge, and slight chances will be carried across the southern
mtns as well as the southern NC and SC foothills. Max temps should
again fall just shy of climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 PM Friday: An upper wave will cross the Central Plains and
into the Mid-MS Valley Saturday night thru Sunday, possibly being
enhanced by an MCS. This wave will then shear out within confluent
quasi-zonal flow over the OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic Sunday night
thru Monday. At the sfc, a stalled front will lift back north as a
warm front, but will be fairly weak. Guidance has slowed down the
return of moisture atop the front thru the day on Sunday, so PoPs
were tweaked downward, especially across the northern half of the
CWFA. As for severe threat, guidance shows limited overlap of CAPE
and bulk shear. So threat should be low. A wavy front roughly
parallel to the upper level flow will set up across the Mid-South to
the OH Valley. Persistent SWLY flow atop the CWFA on the south side
of this boundary will provide plenty of moisture for convection on
Monday. So will have PoPs ramp up to high-end CHC to likely along
the west-facing slopes. Max temps will be near to slightly below
normal and mins near normal both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 155 PM Fri: Beginning Monday evening, the cold front drifts
south into our area from Tennessee then becomes nearly stationary
roughly from west to east across the deep south to the Carolinas.
The front remains this way through the remainder of the forecast.
Precipitable water values will be around 2 inches and at times above
that, especially from Wednesday through Friday. This prolonged
period of high Pwats with a stationary front to focus convection
will result in concerns for potential flooding which will increase
as the ground becomes saturated. A broad 500mb trough remains over
the East with shortwaves rotating SE from the upper Plains states to
our region then NE off the New England coast. This will periodically
enhance rainfall as surface low pressures move along the front over
our area. As a result of the thick cloud cover and periods of rain,
max temperatures are trending downward. Looks like Wednesday may be
the coolest as forecast highs from northeast Georgia to Charlotte
are in the lower 80s and this may be too high given the saturation
of the atmosphere. Overall max temperatures several degrees below
normal and Min temperatures near normal or even slightly above given
the thick clouds. There may also be periods of late night and early
morning fog to deal with as dew points and temperatures match
yielding 100% RH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT: Convection is organizing over the foothills and should
sweep east through the airfield vicinity mainly between 01Z and 03Z.
Expect west to northwest wind gusts to accompany the main line along
with brief restrictions to visibility and lower cigs. Showers may
linger into the early morning hours before drier air starts to
filter in from the NW. Some model profiles show lower stratus
developing behind the departing precipitation but just ahead of the
approaching cold front, and this is possible, but confidence is too
low to mention more than a SCT deck at MVFR levels at this point
during the early morning hours. Winds should toggle NW around
daybreak Saturday with fropa, with mainly NW flow and VFR conditions
through the day.

Elsewhere, the pre-frontal convective threat will impact mainly KHKY
through 02Z, with smaller chances at the Upstate TAF sites. TSRA
should depart east of KAVL quickly after issuance time, but isolated
activity along the immediate cold front remains possible through
late evening. Lower stratus in the moist W to NW flow will brings
restrictions to at least KAVL overnight into Saturday morning, while
drier air will start to filter into the foothills overnight through
Saturday. A few models hint at low stratus, but will hedge with
mainly SCT low clouds across the foothills overnight. Post fropa NW
flow will toggle back toward SW at the Upstate sites through
Saturday.

Outlook: The cold front will settle southeast of the terminal area
through Saturday night. Moisture will then steadily return over the
front back into the region Sunday through Monday. Unsettled
conditions will set up through at least the middle of the week as
the boundary remains nearby and moisture pools overhead as a series
of upper level waves pass by. Restrictions will be possible with any
showers or thunderstorms, and fog and low clouds will be possible
each morning around daybreak, mainly in the mtn valleys, but also in
areas that receive heavy rainfall the day before.

Confidence Table...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  95%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  95%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  80%     High 100%
KHKY       High  94%     High 100%     Med   66%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
753 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-
SCZ001>007-010>014-019-060000-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Madison-Yancey-
Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union-
Chester-Greenwood-
753 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the
mountains and foothills of western North Carolina, and Upstate South
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will move across the region through the late
evening hours. Any of these thunderstorms will produce cloud-to-
ground lightning and heavy rainfall. An isolated thunderstorm may
become severe, producing damaging wind gusts and hail up to around
one inch in diameter.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008-009-060000-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Cherokee-York-
753 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the piedmont of western North
Carolina and the eastern Upstate of South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A line of thunderstorms will move east through the region this
evening. These thunderstorms will bring widespread cloud-to-ground
lightning strikes, very heavy rainfall, and gusty winds of 30 to 40
mph. A few of the thunderstorms may become severe, with winds in
excess of 60 mph being the main threat, and hail up to one inch in
diameter posing a secondary threat. Isolated flooding of poor
drainage and low-lying areas will be possible as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to report any wind damage, large hail, or flooding
to the National Weather Service.

Gerapetritis

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
923 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

SCZ008-009-050215-
York SC-Cherokee SC-
923 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN YORK AND NORTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

At 923 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms with
intense lightning along a line extending from 9 miles southeast of
Shelby to 8 miles southwest of Gaffney, and moving east at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Gaffney, York, Clover, Town Of Lake Wylie, Blacksburg, Sharon,
Hickory Grove, Smyrna, Kings Mountain State Park and Cherokee Falls.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors, try
to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away
from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When
indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired
electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug
unnecessary appliances before the storms approach.

&&

LAT...LON 3509 8106 3493 8135 3504 8181 3505 8181
      3517 8155 3515 8105 3513 8105 3511 8103
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 276DEG 29KT 3519 8143 3500 8178

CDG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
926 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

SCZ006>008-050230-
Cherokee SC-Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
926 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT EAST
CENTRAL GREENVILLE...CENTRAL SPARTANBURG AND CENTRAL CHEROKEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM EDT...

At 926 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms with
intense lightning along a line extending from 10 miles northwest of
Gaffney to 6 miles north of Greenville Downtown, and moving east at
20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Spartanburg, Gaffney, Greer, Boiling Springs SC, Travelers Rest,
Duncan, Lyman, Cowpens, Wellford and Inman.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors, try
to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away
from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When
indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired
electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug
unnecessary appliances before the storms approach.

&&

LAT...LON 3496 8248 3513 8194 3503 8149 3499 8148
      3484 8193
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 286DEG 19KT 3515 8182 3495 8241

CDG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
931 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

SCZ002-003-005>007-010-050215-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-Anderson SC-
Greenville Mountains SC-Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
931 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
GREENVILLE...WEST CENTRAL SPARTANBURG...NORTH CENTRAL ANDERSON AND
PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

At 930 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms with
intense lightning along a line extending from 12 miles north of
Greenville Downtown to 8 miles west of Pickens, and moving southeast
at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenville Downtown, Easley, Pickens, Greenville Eastside, West
Greenville, Greer, Mauldin, Taylors, Berea and Five Forks.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors, try
to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away
from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When
indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired
electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug
unnecessary appliances before the storms approach.

&&

LAT...LON 3490 8291 3490 8290 3491 8290 3492 8291
      3494 8290 3495 8290 3495 8291 3496 8292
      3506 8243 3485 8190 3469 8263
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 312DEG 23KT 3503 8240 3493 8285

CDG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1003 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

NCZ071-082-SCZ009-014-050300-
Union NC-Mecklenburg NC-York SC-Chester SC-
1003 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN
MECKLENBURG...NORTHWESTERN UNION...NORTH CENTRAL CHESTER AND YORK
COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM EDT...

At 1003 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms with
intense lightning along a line extending from 7 miles west of Uptown
Charlotte to 3 miles northwest of York to 12 miles southeast of
Gaffney, and moving southeast at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Rock Hill, York, Monroe, South Charlotte, Southwest Charlotte,
Matthews, Indian Trail, Weddington, Fort Mill and Stallings.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph will be
possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors, try
to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away
from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When
indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired
electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug
unnecessary appliances before the storms approach.

&&

LAT...LON 3489 8079 3494 8078 3508 8091 3501 8091
      3492 8086 3490 8088 3484 8087 3483 8090
      3481 8090 3473 8129 3494 8149 3498 8148
      3503 8127 3515 8107 3512 8048
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 303DEG 20KT 3522 8097 3502 8128 3498 8147

CDG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1019 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

NCZ057-071-072-082-050300-
Rowan NC-Union NC-Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-
1019 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
CABARRUS...CENTRAL MECKLENBURG...SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN AND NORTHEASTERN
UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM EDT...

At 1018 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms with
intense lightning along a line extending from 3 miles northeast of
Salisbury to 3 miles southeast of Downtown Concord to 5 miles south
of Uptown Charlotte, and moving southeast at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Downtown Concord, Salisbury, Uptown Charlotte, Southwest Charlotte,
East Charlotte, Mint Hill, Harrisburg, Spencer, Granite Quarry and
Rockwell.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph will be
possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors, try
to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away
from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When
indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired
electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug
unnecessary appliances before the storms approach.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8030 3519 8051 3516 8044 3517 8039
      3518 8037 3517 8036 3520 8028 3511 8029
      3513 8096 3539 8061 3578 8049 3577 8047
      3573 8045 3572 8038 3572 8034 3571 8032
      3568 8033 3558 8021 3555 8021 3551 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 295DEG 24KT 3570 8044 3537 8054 3515 8086

CDG