Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1035 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm temperatures and mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will continue through Saturday. A front will push
through the area Saturday night, bringing drier air in Sunday and
Monday. More humid and unsettled weather are expected by Tuesday as
the front creeps back into the area from the south.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1020 pm: Isolated convection developed within the last hour
across the NC foothills and Piedmont, while other isolated cells or
holding tough across north GA and far SW NC, just west of our
forecast area. 20-30 pops have been expanded in area, while the
timing of <20 pops has been delayed a couple of hours. Still keeping
an eye on the MCS currently extending from central KY into central
WV. However, as anticipated, it is currently going through a
weakening phase, as electrical activity and intensity of echoes in
the lead line convection has decreased considerably over the past
hour or so. Remnant convection or orphaned trailing "stratiform"
precip region could still make a run toward the forecast area btw
06-08Z, so pops increase to a slight chance across the NW quarter or
so of the forecast area after 06Z. Min temps should be several
degrees higher than climo.

Model guidance shows a weak short wave trough moving down across the
fcst area during peak heating in the afternoon. Think this will
support the development of scattered storms across the entire fcst
area in the afternoon, so precip chances were kept higher than the
guidance indicates. Mid levels might be a bit drier but shear should
be a bit weaker. The Day2 Convective Outlook has a Marginal Risk,
which seems reasonable given the passage of a sfc boundary in the
afternoon. Wind damage once again will be the primary threat. Temps
will remain a bit above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM Friday: the axis of a long wave trough will set up
roughly along the Appalachians for Sunday and Monday, gradually
deamplifying as we head into the middle of next week. At the
surface, a cold front should push the entire area by daybreak Sunday
and stall out across the I-20 corridor to the Outer Banks. The 12z
models have perhaps trended slightly north with this position,
resulting in a slight chance of showers/tstms along the extreme
southern fringe of the CWFA Sunday aftn. Overall, Sunday looks dry
with seasonable temps and noticeably less humidity. The sfc high
that will be responsible for the fair and dry wx will begin to
modify on Monday, as temps and dewpts rebound slightly. Isolated
convection is expected again across mainly the high terrain and
along the southern fringes of the CWFA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1205 PM Friday: With return flow moisture creeping it's way
back into the region on Tuesday, we will climb back to near normal
as far as summertime humidity and diurnal tstm chances go. Will plan
on pushing temperatures even hotter on Wednesday with upper ridging
strengthening some and building westward into the SE conus. Sensible
wx on Wed remains limited to scattered diurnally fired
thunderstorms. With the 00z ECMWF lingering 594dm anticyclone atop
the region for the latter half of the period, daily max temperatures
should remain a few degrees above the already hot mid-July climo. At
this point, it is doubtful that upper ridging will provide enough
suppression to keep diurnal tstm chances less than climo each
day.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The convective threat has ended at the
terminals for this evening. The only real concern for the next 12
hours or so will be the potential for fog/low stratus, primarily in
the mtn valleys. The most likely locations for restrictions will be
in the valleys west of KAVL, but cannot be ruled out at KAVL itself.
However, the potential for a lingering weak up-valley flow makes the
forecast a little problematic. Opted to include an MVFR visby along
with SCT003 by 10Z. VFR conditions should persist at the other
terminals through the period. Most terminals will see winds remain
SW at 5-10 kts, perhaps slightly higher Saturday afternoon. A weak
cold front should bring better coverage of convection during Sat pm,
and all sites receive a prob30 for TSRA at some point.

Outlook: More or less standard early/mid summer weather is
anticipated through much of the period, with mainly PM showers
and storms, and late night/early morning restrictions expected in
any locations receiving heavy rainfall, and also in the mountain
valleys. An exception is the expectation of a break from the storms
Sunday afternoon/evening.

Confidence Table...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     Med   75%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     Med   75%
KAVL       High 100%     Med   69%     High 100%     Med   75%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     Med   75%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     Med   75%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     Med   75%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1040 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-090245-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
1040 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across the area into the
early morning hours. The main threats will be from occasional cloud
to ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
948 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

NCZ504-080215-
Greater Burke NC-
948 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTY UNTIL
1015 PM EDT...

At 948 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Morganton, or over Glen Alpine, moving east at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Morganton, Valdese, Drexel, Rutherford College, Glen Alpine, Lake
Rhodhiss, South Mountains State Park, Table Rock, Pleasant Grove and
Oak Hill.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3582 8159 3578 8156 3578 8151 3557 8160
      3557 8167 3558 8169 3558 8170 3561 8172
      3561 8177 3565 8185 3570 8186 3584 8180
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 291DEG 7KT 3574 8176

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1039 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

NCZ057-072-080315-
Rowan NC-Cabarrus NC-
1039 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CABARRUS AND
SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM EDT...

At 1038 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Downtown Concord, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Kannapolis, Downtown Concord, Salisbury, China Grove, Landis, Granite
Quarry, Rockwell, Mt Pleasant, Faith and High Rock Lake.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8029 3531 8042 3528 8052 3553 8066
      3571 8033 3568 8033 3567 8031 3563 8029
      3563 8027 3559 8021 3555 8021 3554 8020
      3551 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 0238Z 246DEG 13KT 3543 8053

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1110 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

NCZ056-068-069-504-080400-
Cleveland NC-Lincoln NC-Greater Burke NC-Catawba NC-
1110 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CATAWBA...
NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN...NORTH CENTRAL CLEVELAND AND SOUTHEASTERN BURKE
COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT...

At 1110 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles south of Morganton, or 4 miles northwest of South Mountains
State Park, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Morganton, Belwood, South Mountains State Park, Casar, Pleasant Grove
and Cooksville.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3565 8139 3545 8151 3556 8169 3558 8169
      3559 8171 3561 8172 3560 8174 3561 8176
      3560 8177 3562 8180 3573 8173
TIME...MOT...LOC 0310Z 294DEG 12KT 3566 8169

KRENTZ