Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
234 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the Western Carolinas and northeast Georgia
from the west today, bringing the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms to the region. Dry high pressure will settle over the
southeast Tuesday into Wednesday. A low pressure system will move
from the plains to the Ohio Valley Wednesday night through Thursday,
with a band of deep moisture moving into our region ahead of the
associated cold front. The cold front will move east of the area on
Friday, with windy and cooler conditions and continued northwest
flow moisture across the mountains into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT: Strong to potentially severe line of convection
continues to cross the area at this time. A damaging wind gust could
occur with any storm as it moves through the area. Although any
thunderstorm related damaging winds will be isolated, a strong
gradient wind has developed with the strong low level jet crossing
the area. Cannot rule out a few downed trees or power lines with
these non-thunderstorm winds as well. These winds should diminish
from west to east as the jet crosses the area, but gusty winds will
linger through the afternoon. Winds will pick back up across the
mountains as the associated cold front moves east of the area. The
winds will be stronger and longer lasting, so a wind advisory has
been issued for the NC Mountains as a result.

Skies clear behind the front this evening with clear skies
continuing through the day Tuesday. That said, some clouds will move
back into the mountains from time to time tonight and Tuesday.
Still, expect mostly clear skies even there. Winds taper off across
the mountains during the afternoon but remain gusty. Low end gusts
develop outside of the mountains during the afternoon as well. Lows
tonight will be near to a little above normal. Highs Tuesday will
rise to right around normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3pm EDT Monday:  On Wednesday, area will continue to be in a
postfrontal regime with low-level flow from the west that will keep
things dry.  Next upstream system digs into the TX/LA area Wednesday
evening and surface trough ahead of it will begin the process of
moisture return with 850mb winds becoming southerly.  Main dynamical
impact of this system will be Thursday afternoon through Friday
morning with a round of precipitation.  Storm total amounts for
Thurs. through Fri. morning are currently around an inch to an inch
and a quarter.  MLCAPE and SBCAPE with this system may remain below 400
j/kg, greatly reducing the chances for any severe weather with the
system, though wind shear will be strong, so severe is not
out-of-the-question.  Ridge of surface high pressure along the
Appalachians ahead of next system  will give some CAD northeasterly
surface flow that will serve to keep the better instability south
and southwest of the area.  Temperatures will be near normal on
Wed., and have warm low Thurs. morning due to warm/moist advection.
Thurs. highs will be moderated by cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3pm EDT Monday:  By Friday morning, the EC model is somewhat
behind the GFS in dragging the front/line of precip. through the
area as upper longwave makes its way towards the Atlantic.  However,
both models have an area of lighter precipitation in the wrap-around
behind the system which will continue lighter showers, especially in
areas upslope to westerly flow into Saturday morning.  Both models
also have a secondary back-door front with some showers moving down
Sunday morning.  Long-term may have above average predictability as
GFS and EC both agree on the establishment of a blocky Omega type
pattern with the upper trough parking itself over the northeast
CONUS.  With this pattern, embedded waves will give some 10 to 20
percent chance for showers each day Saturday through Tuesday (mostly
over the higher terrain), but no big event is currently in the
forecast, and moisture/CAPE will be limited due to lack of southerly
flow under generally weak low-level pressure gradient.
Low-dewpoints will give cool lows 5 or so degrees below normal with
highs near normal in periods without clouds, and below normal in
periods with clouds.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Very gusty S to SW winds have developed ahead
of the approaching cold front. Convection has increased as well. Have
increased winds and included very gusty variable winds with the
TEMPO for TSRA. Expect gusts to linger behind the convection along
with low VFR and some showers. Winds turn SW or WSW and drop off
this evening with clearing skies. KAVL will see winds turn NNW this
evening and remain gusty through the period.

Outlook: Drier weather will persist Tuesday. A return of
afternoon/evening thunderstorms is possible Wednesday, while another
cold front may bring another round of widespread showers and storms
by Thursday into Friday.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       Med   73%     High  98%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High  84%     High  99%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  93%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       Med   78%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High  82%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High  93%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...WJM
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
301 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001>006-010-021915-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Anderson-
301 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Passage of front has ended the chances for severe weather this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-021915-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
301 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Passage of front has ended the chances for severe weather this
afternoon. Behind the front, winds at higher elevations will be
strong and a wind advisory has been issued for tonight through
Tuesday morning for gusts up to 50mph.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ007>009-
011>014-019-021915-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-
Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
301 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
A line of thunderstorms is currently moving west to east across the
area. There will be some chance for severe wind gusts as the line
passes, along with periods of lightning and torrential rain. Line
will pass quickly and any chance for severe weather will end as it
passes. Line is expected to be completely east of the area by 8pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
223 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

NCZ508-510-SCZ003-006>008-012-011915-
Greater Rutherford NC-Eastern Polk NC-Cherokee SC-Laurens SC-
Greenville Mountains SC-Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
223 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...
SOUTHEASTERN POLK...NORTHWESTERN LAURENS...NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE...
SPARTANBURG AND NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 223 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 5 miles south of Columbus to 12 miles south of
Greenville Downtown, and moving northeast at 40 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Spartanburg, Greenville Eastside, Greer, Mauldin, Taylors,
Simpsonville, Five Forks, Fountain Inn, Boiling Springs SC and
Woodruff.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3465 8240 3517 8228 3523 8197 3525 8175
      3473 8188
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 239DEG 35KT 3516 8219 3468 8234

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
253 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

NCZ068-508-011930-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-
253 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD AND
WESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 253 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 7 miles south of Rutherfordton to 10 miles
northwest of Spartanburg, and moving northeast at 50 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Forest City, Shelby, Boiling Springs NC, Belwood, Lawndale,
Polkville, Ellenboro, Lattimore, Mooresboro and Bostic.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3555 8151 3552 8151 3550 8149 3525 8157
      3520 8192 3543 8185 3556 8152
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 234DEG 43KT 3527 8200 3504 8209

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
311 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

SCZ011-019-011945-
Abbeville SC-Greenwood SC-
311 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ABBEVILLE AND
GREENWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 311 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles south of Abbeville, or 6 miles west of Troy, moving northeast
at 50 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenwood, Ninety Six, Troy, Greenwood State Park, Ninety Six
Historic Site, Promised Land, Bradley, Coronaca, Kirksey and Dyson.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.

LAT...LON 3406 8233 3406 8240 3429 8210 3417 8191
      3415 8190 3413 8187 3407 8193 3397 8219
      3399 8221 3402 8225 3397 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 235DEG 44KT 3396 8240

LANE

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